Last year, the price of nickel fell sharply due to the impact of systemic risks. After falling to around 90,000, it rebounded. So far, it has rebounded from the lowest point and has increased by about 45%. Will the bullish trend continue in the future?
Figure 1: Daily K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel Index
01 The new energy automobile industry has an obvious tendency to use high nickel in batteries
On January 11, Chenglian National passenger car production and sales data for December 2020 will be released. Wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210,000 units in December, a year-on-year increase of 53.6% and a month-on-month increase of 15.6%. Among them, 34,000 plug-in hybrid vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 111.7%. Wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 176,000, a year-on-year increase of 45.9%. In December, the new energy passenger vehicle market diversified its efforts. Companies that exceeded 10,000 units in sales included SAIC-GM-Wuling with 41,089 units, BYD with 28,075 units, Tesla China with 23,804 units, SAIC Passenger Vehicles with 18,167 units, and Great Wall Motors with 10,729 units.
In 2020, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles were 1.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, especially in the second half of the year, where sales growth was strong. In 2020, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.109 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. New energy vehicles at home and abroad showed good performance in overall growth.
This is also reflected in the stock prices of various new energy vehicles:
Figure 2: Tesla’s annual stock price chart
Figure 3: NIO’s annual Stock Price Chart
Figure 4: Xpeng Motors Annual Stock Price Chart
Figure 5: Wuling Motors Annual Stock Price Chart
The stock prices of these new energy vehicles have been It has at least doubled within the year, especially the share price of leading company Tesla, which has increased nearly 10 times.
In order to increase the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, it is necessary to improve the battery life and reduce the production cost. At present, the market is generally optimistic about high-nickel batteries.
The so-called high-nickel battery means that the proportion of nickel in the battery electrode material has been greatly increased. As the proportion of nickel increases, the usage of metal is effectively reduced, thereby reducing the battery cost. At the same time, the high-nickel battery also increases The overall energy density of the battery is reduced, and the battery life is also greatly improved. High-nickel batteries will be the mainstream direction in the future.
Tesla has been promoting the development and application of high-nickel battery materials.
On the second quarter earnings call this year, Musk publicly emphasized: "Any mining company, please mine more nickel. If you mine nickel efficiently in an environmentally friendly way, Tesla will Providing you with a long-term, huge contract.”
Foreign media reported that Tesla is purchasing a large amount of low-carbon nickel from Canadian mining company Giga Metals to meet its battery manufacturing needs. At the same time, Tesla is planning to build a factory in the global nickel mining base-Batang region in central Java, Indonesia. Combined with a piece of news in the first half of 2020, Tesla applied for a monocrystalline nickel-cobalt-aluminum electrode patent. Increasing the proportion of nickel may increase energy density and battery life. Batteries using this new electrode will be able to charge 4,000 times. times, the total cruising range is expected to exceed 1 million miles, approximately 1.6 million kilometers. ”
With the upgrading and application of high-nickel batteries, the demand for nickel will continue to increase, which will support the price of nickel.
02 Indonesia bans the export of raw ore ore trade supply Decline
According to data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), global nickel reserves in 2019 totaled 89 million tons. Based on the current mining rate, these nickel resources can be mined for approximately 37 million tons. Among them, the top three countries with the largest nickel reserves are Indonesia, Australia and Brazil, accounting for a total of 60% of the world's nickel resources.
China's nickel reserves are relatively scarce, accounting for only 1% of the world's nickel reserves. 3% of reserves, my country's nickel ore resources are mainly imported from Indonesia and the Philippines.
Domestic laterite nickel ore basically depends on imports, and the main source countries are the Philippines and Indonesia. The supplies from these two countries. The volume accounts for more than 90%.
Regardless of transportation distance or supply perspective, these two countries are the best sources of nickel ore imports in my country. However, in 2020, Indonesia officially banned the export of nickel ore, and the main exporting countries of nickel ore changed from Indonesia and the Philippines to the Philippines alone. However, after development in recent years, some high-grade mines in the Philippines are facing depletion. The number of high-grade nickel mines currently mined has gradually declined, and the ability to expand production and supply is limited. It is still unable to cope with the international trade demand for ores that Indonesia is absent. Although my country has increased its import of resources from Australia, it is obviously more restricted in terms of transportation distance costs and export country quota restrictions, and the space for expansion is very limited.
As demand increases and supply decreases, nickel will face a tight balance between supply and demand in the future.
03 How will the market outlook perform?
Judging from the weekly K-level cycle, Shanghai Nickel is still in a bullish trend.
Figure 6: Weekly K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel 2103 contract
From the daily K-line level, the current maximum pressure is at 135000. If it can close above this price for two consecutive days Even a breakthrough.
Figure 7: Daily K-line chart of Shanghai Nickel 2103 contract
From a medium to long-term perspective, I think it is more likely that Shanghai Nickel will fluctuate higher in the market outlook. However, there is greater resistance at this position. , investors who are trying to do more, please control their positions.
This article comes from Melya Futures