1 The pharmaceutical economy will continue to show a steady growth trend.
1. 1 natural population growth is the basic factor for the growth of drug demand.
In 2000, China's elderly population (over 60 years old) approached1.300 million, accounting for 1% of the total population. China has entered the ranks of aging countries. In the future, the elderly population will increase by about 3% every year. By 2005, the total number of elderly people in China will reach 65.438+0.6 billion, accounting for 654.38+0.52% of the total population. It will increase to 280 million in 2025, accounting for17% of the total population; By 2050, it will exceed 400 million, accounting for 27% of the total population, and reach its peak. At present, drugs consumed by the elderly account for more than 50% of the total drug consumption. According to the current per capita drug consumption level of 385 yuan for the elderly, the total drug consumption for the elderly will reach 610.60 billion yuan in 2005, a net increase of1.155 million yuan compared with 50.05 billion yuan in 2000.
1.2 The gradual improvement of people's living standards has greatly promoted the demand for medicines.
From 65438 to 0999, the rural population in China was 870 million, accounting for 69.438+0% of the total population. At present, the level of drug consumption in China is still very low. 198 The per capita drug consumption was about 80 yuan (less than 10), while the per capita drug consumption in moderately developed countries reached 40-50 dollars, while that in developed countries such as Japan reached 447 dollars, France 322 dollars, Germany 256 dollars and Italy 2 10 dollars. Therefore, with the development of the country and the improvement of people's living standards, the drug consumption market in China will have a great development space. During the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, the rural drug consumption demand may increase by 15%, that is, from the current per capita 12.5 yuan to about 25.30 yuan in 2005. In 2005, the per capita drug consumption level will increase by 1 times compared with the end of the Ninth Five-Year Plan, and the total consumption will increase by about 1 1 billion yuan.
According to the above data analysis, it is estimated that by 2005, the national drug demand will reach 21800 million yuan, a net increase of 94 billion yuan over 2000. It is estimated that the average annual growth of drug demand in China may reach 12% during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.
New changes will take place in the drug consumption structure.
2. 1 the drug use structure is becoming more and more reasonable, and the introduction of the new medical policy in China has brought about new changes in the drug demand structure.
With the introduction of the new medical reform plan, the excessive growth of drug consumption will be controlled, and the effective use of drug resources will become the conscious action of the people. Good curative effect and low price will be two factors that patients must consider when taking medicine, so the sales of drugs with good curative effect and low price will increase.
2.2 OTC drugs will enter a stage of rapid development.
Drug classification management will bring about changes in drug demand structure. The global over-the-counter drugs have developed rapidly, and the sales of 1998 reached 45.07 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.5% over 1997. There are more than 5,500 prescription drug rooms and as many as 750,000 non-prescription drug rooms in the United States. The United States is currently the country with the highest per capita consumption of OTC drugs (1997, the per capita consumption of OTC drugs in the United States is $70); Denmark ranks second ($69 per capita); Germany ranks third ($65 per capita). The sales of over-the-counter drugs in China are very impressive, from $250 million (equivalent to RMB 19 10) in 1994 to $10/0/0 (equivalent to RMB 8.38 billion), an increase of more than three times in four years. From 65438 to 0996, the OTC market sales in China rose to1300 million US dollars (equivalent to RMB 1079 million yuan), making it the fastest growing country in the world. According to a preliminary estimate, the OTC market sales in 2000 can reach 3 billion US dollars, with an average annual growth rate of about 15%. However, at present, the per capita consumption of OTC drugs in China is lower than the global per capita consumption level (9. 1 USD). With the deepening of medical system reform, the continuous enhancement of people's self-medical awareness, the development of rural markets and the implementation of drug management system, China's OTC drug market will show a stronger development momentum. Therefore, the OTC market in China has great potential and bright prospects.
2.3 The demand for drugs and disinfectants used to prevent and control emerging infectious diseases and common epidemics will greatly increase.
The emergence of new disease spectrum has brought about changes in the structure of drug demand, which is mainly due to the continuous emergence of new products and viruses, endangering human life. At the same time, "new family members" are constantly appearing in common epidemics. At present, there are more than 10000 confirmed influenza viruses in the world, which can be divided into three categories: A, B and C. In 1997, four cases of influenza A virus appeared in Hong Kong, which was the first discovery in the world. In 2 1 century, the medical model will change from therapeutic to preventive, and the suppression of new infectious diseases and common epidemics will become the focus of medical care in 2 1 century. Therefore, the demand for drugs and disinfectants to treat and prevent new infectious diseases and common epidemics will greatly increase.
2.4 The consumption of health care products will continue to grow.
2 1 century, with the continuous improvement of living standards, people's awareness of health care will be comprehensively improved, and the demand for health and longevity will become stronger and stronger. People need not only drugs, but also health knowledge. From passive medication to independent drug selection, from passive treatment to preventive health care. Therefore, the sales of disease prevention and health care drugs will continue to grow. Due to the improvement of people's living standards, there have been some new changes in the health care drug market: first, the consumption area has gradually expanded from cities to rural areas; Second, consumers are mainly old people and children in the past, expanding to young people and women; Third, the consumption choice has expanded from paying attention to rehabilitation after illness to seasonal and perennial health care consumption; Fourth, the purpose of consumption has expanded from disease prevention and treatment to anti-aging, fitness and intelligence, beauty and bodybuilding and other needs; Fifth, consumption is clearly graded. Coastal open cities are higher than remote areas in the mainland, and places with rich lives are higher than relatively closed and poor places. Sixth, seeking novelty, naturalness and good curative effect in consumption is the new trend of health care products. The new changes in people's demand for health care products have greatly promoted the development of health care industry. According to statistics, at present, the annual sales of health care products in China is close to 50 billion yuan, increasing by 15% ~ 30%, which is higher than the growth rate of various medical categories and obviously higher than that of health care products in developed countries 13%.
China's new medical insurance system and the implementation of "National Essential Drugs" and "List of Essential Medical Insurance Drugs" will have a great impact on the adjustment of drug structure, and domestic drugs with definite curative effect and low price will still occupy a large market share; Modern biotechnological drugs, natural drugs and marine drugs will probably become the competitive targets to challenge traditional chemical drugs.
Drug prices are becoming more and more reasonable.
In recent years, the phenomenon of inflated drug prices in China is still serious, but the overall inflated drug prices will be basically reversed in the next few years. This is mainly because the production of similar varieties is relatively concentrated, with relative scale advantages, production costs are reduced, and it is logical for drug prices to return to a reasonable level. Due to the reform of the new drug examination and approval system, the similar varieties of new drugs will be reduced, and those new drugs with independent intellectual property rights will be protected by patents, and it should be normal that their prices are higher than ordinary drugs.
4. Natural medicines have developed rapidly.
According to statistics, the global annual sales of botanical drugs (including traditional drugs from various countries) is about 654.38+045 billion US dollars, of which Europe accounts for about half. Germany and France have the highest consumption of botanical drugs, accounting for 72% of the total European market, of which Germany accounts for 50%. In recent years, Americans have changed their ideas and realized the value of herbal medicine in treating diseases. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has become one of the most important markets for botanical drugs in the world. Since 1970s, the market of American botanicals has not only been expanding, but also become the raw material supply base of the world botanicals industry. In recent years, Japan is in a leading position in natural medicine research, vigorously developing plant medicines, producing a large number of Chinese patent medicines and opening up the international market. According to the newspaper, the annual output value of Shun Paradise in Jincun alone is equivalent to the total annual export of traditional medicine products in China. South Korea has adopted the "fist product strategy", and the export of Chinese herbal medicines and proprietary Chinese medicines has increased rapidly in recent years. Many countries in the world rely on natural drugs to develop new drugs. China has the richest natural medicine resources in the world. According to the national survey of traditional Chinese medicine resources, there are 12807 kinds of traditional Chinese medicine resources in China, which have broad development prospects. According to the survey data, although the proportion of sales of traditional Chinese medicine in the total sales of drugs in China is rising steadily, it only accounts for about 33%, and chemicals are still in an absolute leading position. With the continuous development and application of extraction, separation, purification and structure research technology of effective components of natural medicines in recent years, natural medicines have achieved rapid growth. As a kind of "green medicine" from plants, natural medicine is favored by more and more consumers. With the global upsurge of advocating nature, natural medicine is bound to become one of the most popular medicine in 2 1 century.
5. The business scale of the enterprise has been gradually expanded.
At present, the overall scale of pharmaceutical enterprises in China, including listed companies, is still very small, and it is difficult to cope with the competition with large foreign companies after China's entry into WTO. With the deepening of enterprise reform and the adjustment of industry structure, a large number of large companies and groups with listed companies as the main body are expected to stand out in five years. Through combination, merger and reorganization, we can achieve extraordinary resource convergence, asset appreciation and capital expansion, and form the strength enough to compete with large foreign companies on the same stage, and show our talents in two big markets at home and abroad.
6. The pharmaceutical market structure continues to develop in a diversified and multi-level way.
In the case of international integration, pharmaceutical enterprises will get rid of the limitations of the current industry, develop and consolidate the main pharmaceutical industry, and at the same time develop into diversified and multi-level operations in order to enhance their survival, development and adaptability.
6. 1 The economic structure of the pharmaceutical market is diversified.
Under the premise that the domestic pharmaceutical market is dominated by the state-owned pharmaceutical economy, various types of collective economy, stock economy and "foreign capital" and "cooperative" enterprises are constantly developing. This diversified medical economic structure has brought a good environment to the active medical market. The operators of the pharmaceutical market are also diversified, including state-owned pharmaceutical enterprises, collectives, private individuals, medical technology and others, but state-owned pharmaceutical enterprises are still the main body.
6.2 The composition of the pharmaceutical market is hierarchical.
Including: an open market oriented to the pharmaceutical market, fully embodying the law of value and supply and demand, and characterized by bidding; Semi-open market based on medical contract; Closed market based on national plan; A retail market characterized by free trading.
6.3 The composition of drug demand is diversified.
The desire to buy and use drugs is high, and buyers and sellers with financial support have special preferences for high-end drugs and new drugs; Middle and low-end buyers and sellers still occupy most of the drug market share. In terms of capital investment, the proportion of investment between buyers and sellers in production, supply, sales, research and use is different, which constitutes a new buying and selling pattern.
The number of enterprises has been greatly reduced.
China medicine has long been plagued by many enterprises, small scale, high cost and low efficiency. After China's entry into WTO, with the intensification of market competition, some enterprises will be merged and reorganized, some enterprises will withdraw from the market, and the territory of China's pharmaceutical market will be re-divided. Therefore, the number of pharmaceutical enterprises is decreasing year by year. According to experts' prediction, the number of pharmaceutical enterprises in China will decrease by 25% ~ 35% after the Tenth Five-Year Plan.
The general agent and distribution of drugs will continue to expand.
On the basis of voluntary and mutual benefit, pharmaceutical industrial and commercial enterprises will carry out the general agent and total distribution of drugs through contracts, which will become the development direction of enterprise management. In today's increasingly fierce market competition, this mode of operation can not only bring a stable supply and marketing market for both parties, but also help to close and stabilize the cooperative relationship between industry and commerce, thus forming complementary advantages and creating a good environment and conditions for the orderly operation of the pharmaceutical market, which is the only way for enterprises to change from extensive management to intensive management. Moreover, the variety, quantity and scope of general distribution and general agent will continue to expand.
Market competition will gradually become fierce.
As far as the pharmaceutical market is concerned, competition has just begun, because there are still many restrictions in the field of foreign investment access and tariff barriers for foreign goods. At present, foreign investment in the China market can only be carried out in the form of joint ventures and cooperation, and the investment ratio is limited; Similar foreign drugs entering the China market also lose their competitiveness due to high tariffs, resulting in high prices. After five years, the above situation will change. China's huge pharmaceutical market will attract huge investment from large foreign companies, and China may become the main production base of raw materials and preparations in the world; Drug import and export trade will increase substantially; The disparity between Chinese and foreign drug prices will disappear, and the competition in the pharmaceutical market will become more intense.
[Market Analysis: Competition in the pharmaceutical market will be more intense at the crossroads]
While the medical reform has been questioned and even criticized, the development of the pharmaceutical market seems to have reached a crossroads. 1654381October 8th, at the "High-level Seminar on the Victory of Pharmaceutical Enterprises" jointly sponsored by China Pharmaceutical News Agency and China Chemical Pharmaceutical Industry Association and undertaken by the Pharmaceutical R&D Industry Committee of China Association of Enterprises with Foreign Investment, Zhu Changhao, Vice President of china association of pharmaceutical commerce, predicted that "the competition in the pharmaceutical market will be more intense next year".
Zhu Changhao said that last year was the worst year for the pharmaceutical industry, and this year was the most severe year for the separation of medicines. However, the development of the pharmaceutical industry is still in a state of disorder and ineffective competition. At the same time, he pointed out that the development of the pharmaceutical industry is greatly influenced by policies, and the strong position of medical units in the pharmaceutical market is becoming more and more prominent, which has brought many uncertainties to the development of the pharmaceutical industry and the pharmaceutical market.
In this regard, Zhu Changhao added that he had made an Analysis Report on the Development Trend of China Pharmaceutical Market to the US Food and Drug Administration on 1998, predicting that "the influence of policies on the pharmaceutical market will gradually weaken", but now it seems that "this judgment is wrong" and the increasingly prominent position of medical units in the pharmaceutical market is "abnormal".
Therefore, in Zhu Changhao's view, the change of policy has brought the reform of medical and health system in China to a crossroads, how to speed up the development of China's pharmaceutical market to a crossroads, and the survival of China's pharmaceutical enterprises to a crossroads. In the next step, how to integrate resources, make good use of channels, realize the optimal allocation of resources, give full play to the advantages of the network, and integrate into the corporate culture will become the symbol to test its success or failure.
When talking about the development trend of China pharmaceutical market in 2006, Zhu Changhao predicted that the pharmaceutical economy will maintain a high development speed, but the competition will be more intense; Structural adjustment will be further accelerated, and the structure of enterprises, markets and varieties will undergo great changes; The concentration of the pharmaceutical market has been further improved, and the polarization of medicine has been further highlighted; Drug prices are generally lower, and policy price cuts will continue for some time; Regional economic development is further accelerated, and regional leading enterprises are gradually becoming clear; The rural medical market will develop greatly, and it still needs to be promoted in a multi-pronged manner.
Finally, Zhu Changhao reminded pharmaceutical enterprises that it is imperative for them to form their own core competitiveness after the whole industry enters the era of low profit in all-round competition. If you want to find a way to stay in the market competition, that is to win. He expressed optimism about the future profit margin of pharmaceutical companies, and made a surprising statement: the drug price is "falsely high", indicating that there is demand in the market; Compared with the production cost, the drug price is not too high now, but it is still low.
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