If it is "far" in development, it is not a little bit.
Seriously, let's develop ourselves, don't compare with Japan, it's not first-class at all!
This is a fact. But this is only part of the truth. Judging from many indicators, there is still a big gap between China and Japan. In many ways, it is not only far but also difficult for China to catch up with Japan. Forget it.
Among my peers in economics, there is even a tendency to look up to China and look down on the Japanese. There was a joke that was widely circulated in Beijing, saying that in the future, there will only be three economists in the world, one who understands the American economy, one who understands the European economy and one who understands the China economy. As for Japan, the answer is a contemptuous smile: Japan, haha, Japan can leave it alone! This is really nonsense.
China is rising rapidly. This is a fact. But this is only part of the truth. Judging from many indicators, there is still a big gap between China and Japan. In many ways, it is not only far but also difficult for China to catch up with Japan. The real situation of the gap between China and China deserves our attention, and we can no longer be trapped in the illusion of self-deception.
Let's look at the basic data first. China has a land area of 9.6 million square kilometers and a population of 654.38+300 million. Japan has a land area of 378,000 square kilometers and a population of 654.38+300 million. China's land area is 25 times that of Japan, and its population is 10 times that of Japan. In terms of territory and population, China is indeed a big China, and Japan is indeed a small Japan.
However, the economic aggregate of the two countries has dropped by one. In 2003, according to the World Bank's global development index for 2004, China's GDP was11689.8 billion RMB, equivalent to 1.4 trillion US dollars, ranking seventh in the world. Japan's GDP is as high as 4.3 trillion dollars, ranking second in the world. Japan is three times as big as China. It is inevitable that there will be errors in the comparison of economic aggregates converted by exchange rate. However, based on purchasing power parity or actual parity, most statistical results show that the total economic output between China and Japan is still 1- 2 times.
The pace of China's rise in recent years is not slow. However, in the first 4/ 1 century after the war, Japan easily became the second developed country in the world. Although China has experienced the fastest growth in the past 20 years, its GDP still ranks sixth and seventh in the world, and many indicators are impossible to enter the ranks of developed countries.
Japan's economic strength is manifested at home and abroad. In recent years, China is proud of introducing a lot of foreign capital, but Japan is the largest creditor country in the world. At the end of 2000, Japan's total overseas assets reached 3. 2 trillion dollars, equivalent to 2. 3 times, the total overseas sales of its manufacturing industry reached more than $ 654.38+3 trillion, equivalent to China's GDP (Tang, 200 1). Such a powerful and intangible "overseas Japanese" is enough to make China enterprises, which have been open for 20 years and are now full of ambitions, shouting slogans and marching into "going out", feel ashamed!
Comparison of economic structure: 1999, Japan's tertiary industry structure ratio is 2: 36: 62, which has long been an obvious "post-industrial society". From 65438 to 0975, the employment rate of the tertiary industry in Japan exceeded 50% for the first time, which indicated that Japan gradually entered the "post-industrialization" era centered on the service industry as early as the 1970s. In contrast, the tertiary industry structure in China in 2003 was 14. 7: 53: 32.3, and China has not even completed the transformation from the former industrial society to the industrialized society.
According to the definition of industrialization by the National Bureau of Statistics, the signs of a country's complete industrialization are: First, the agricultural output value is below 15%, which can be said that China has just crossed; Second, agricultural employment is below 20%, and China is still as high as 50%, which can be said to be far from enough; Third, the proportion of urban population must be above 60%. At present, China is only about 40%, which is far from enough.
What is the level of urbanization in Japan? 1950, the urban population of Japan accounted for 38% of the total population, which is similar to that of China today, and most of the Japanese people today live in cities.
In 2003, the growth of heavy industry in China exceeded that of light industry by 4 percentage points, and heavy industry investment began to enter a prosperous period. The whole country rejoices that China's economy has entered the stage of "heavy chemical industry". But few people in China know that as early as 1955, Japan entered the high-processing stage of heavy chemical industry and transformed into a capital and technology-intensive economy. In terms of industrial structure, China is only similar to Japan 40 years ago.
China's current growth momentum is mainly driven by the "world factory". According to the author's calculation, the contribution rate of China's industrial growth to GDP in 2003 was as high as 63%. However, from the perspective of the total manufacturing volume, in 2003, Japan was 911billion US dollars, and China was 382.5 billion US dollars. Japan is 2. Four times that of China. Obviously, China is far from being a "world factory", but Japan is a veritable international manufacturing center.
According to the catch-up speed in the past, it will take at least several decades for China to catch up with Japan on the road of "world factory", and it will be more and more difficult in the future. Energy problems, environmental protection problems, labor problems and market problems will all plague China.
Japan's per capita resources are also very poor, but the Japanese know how to foster strengths and avoid weaknesses through excellent processing. The period from 1955 to 1975 was the fastest developing period in Japan. The output value of Japan's manufacturing industry rose from 8 1.4% to 96.0%, the mining industry fell from 10. 1% to 0.62%, and the basic industries such as electricity, gas and water supply rose from 7.74%. China is also a country with poor per capita resources, but China's economic growth largely depends on selling resources cheaply. In 2000, resource-based industries accounted for 54.5% of all industries in China. Among them, industries with agricultural products as raw materials account for 62.0% of light industry, and mining and raw material industries account for 50.5% of heavy industry.
China now pays attention to the quality of economic growth, and in this respect, Japan is much more advanced than China. In terms of GDP generated by energy use per kilogram of oil equivalent, China is about 0. 7, not only lower than developed countries, but also lower than many developing countries such as India. The GDP generated by the same energy use in Japan is as high as 10.5 USD, which is the highest in the world, about 15 times that of China.
With the same resource and energy, the output value of the Japanese is 15 times higher than that of China? China people also like to talk about "Laozi" and "the unity of man and nature", but how can China people cherish nature like the Japanese? !
China is entering a new golden growth period. However, in 2004, as soon as economic growth started, the total GDP just accounted for 4% of the world, oil consumption jumped to the second place in the world, and electricity consumption accounted for 13% of global consumption. In addition, steel consumption accounts for 27% of global consumption, cement consumption accounts for 40% of global consumption, and coal consumption accounts for 3 1% of global consumption. So people all over the world are worried about whether China's long-term growth will lead to a global resource shortage, and whether "China will starve to death all over the world"?
In fact, China should learn from Japan with an open mind, cherish resources like Japan and use them efficiently. At present, China is entering the upsurge of formulating various "energy strategies" and "resource strategies". In fact, the road is very simple. China should look inward like the Japanese and tap its potential, so that China's energy and resources can support China's economy several times at the current basically unchanged level.
China has a large labor force, which is one of China's advantages in the global division of labor, but China can't make efficient use of the labor force, which greatly offsets this advantage. So it is also a period of rapid growth. From 1960 to 1975, Japan's labor productivity increased at an average annual rate of 1 1.07%. From 1980 to 2000, the average annual growth rate of labor productivity in China was only 5. 19%, which is 2.59% in US dollars. The comparison of labor productivity indicators fully shows that China's rapid growth depends on the sea of people tactics, while Japan relies on the improvement of labor efficiency.
In addition to relying on sea tactics, China's growth also depends on a lot of investment, but what is the quality of investment? It is said that bad debts in Japan are serious, but in the process of rapid growth to economic recession, the bad debt rate of Japanese banks is only 5%, while the non-performing loan rate of the four major commercial banks in China has reached 28.78% in 2000. If the non-performing assets acquired by the four major state-owned asset management companies are counted, the non-performing loan ratio is nearly 45%. Obviously, compared with Japanese, China's investment efficiency and benefit will be greatly improved.
The proportion of R & ampD (research and development) funds to GDP is a set of internationally used important indicators to measure the scale of a country's scientific and technological activities and the intensity of scientific and technological investment, which reflects the country's economic growth potential and sustainable development ability to some extent. In 2000, China spent 89.6 billion yuan on this indicator, accounting for 1 percentage point of GDP for the first time in history. On the other hand, the same index in Japan in 2000 was 3. 12, which is not only much higher than China, but also higher than 2. The United States 65, Germany 2.37, 2. France 17, France 1. Britain is 87, ranking first in the world.
In fact, starting from 1990, Japan's R &；; D the proportion of expenditure to GDP has always been the highest in the world. What does this mean? This means that this country has a tenacious determination to rejuvenate the country through science and technology, and inadvertently reveals the secret of this country's prosperity, that is, technology-based, leading technology. Of course, this indicator also shows that "Little Japan" is not a short-sighted nation as some people in China imagine. On the contrary, the Japanese nation is a far-sighted nation-only a far-sighted nation is willing to spend a lot of money to invest in its future.
On the other hand, it is disappointing that China, whether it is an enterprise, a country or even ordinary citizens, is so eager for quick success and instant benefit. China people prefer to shout the slogan of "rejuvenating the country through science and technology", or scold the Japanese for being addicted on the Internet, but they are unwilling to spend time to cram for scientific knowledge.
Patent invention: 1995, the number of patent applications in China is only 1.45% of the world's, and the number of patent grants is 0.48% of the world's, while that in Japan is 13.48% of the world's, and the number of patent grants is 15.3% of the world's. According to the survey released by Korea Development Bank recently, if Korea is taken as the benchmark (100), it is 76. 5 domestic and 1 10. Five in Japan.
China people must always remember that the number of Japanese who won the Nobel Prize has reached 12, while China is still 0. A great man put it well: "China should make greater contributions to mankind", but it is much harder to do than to say!
At the enterprise level, the construction of China's enterprise technology innovation system is still in its infancy. The proportion of R&D expenditure of large and medium-sized industrial enterprises in sales revenue is usually less than 1%, while Japanese enterprises have already established a perfect scientific and technological innovation system, and their R&D expenditure is generally above 5- 10%.
There are very few research talents in China enterprises, and they are constantly losing to foreign companies. Japan has the largest number of researchers in the world for every 10,000 working people. In 2000, there were 109.3 people, higher than 73. Eight people in the United States, 60. Three people in France, 59. There are 6 people in Germany and 54 people. Eight people in Britain.
China aims to become one of the top 500 enterprises in the world. In 1994, Japan's number of entrepreneurs in the world's top 500 was equal to that of the United States, accounting for 1, 2, 3 and 4. More than half of the top ten are Japanese companies. Since the 1990s, the whole world has been singing down Japan. However, in 2003, there were 12 Japanese enterprises, most of which were monopoly state-owned enterprises, and PetroChina ranked 69th.
Do you dare to imagine when China will become the country with the largest number of top 500 countries in the world? Do you dare to imagine that China enterprises occupy the top spot among the top 500 companies in the world, taking the top four? Such a day may come one day. However, our neighbors did this as early as the 1990s. Should any upright China person, an entrepreneur from China who is determined to globalize, pay tribute to this? !
No matter how good the economy is, it is no use failing to improve people's lives. Let's compare the living standards of the people again. In 2003, China's per capita income exceeded $65,438+0,000 for the first time, approaching $65,438+0,080; Japanese is $33,077, which is 3 1 times that of China. In terms of per capita GDP, China is only equivalent to Japanese 1966 level.
Engel coefficient of household consumption (that is, the proportion of household food consumption expenditure to total household consumption expenditure) is an index reflecting living standards. In 2002, the Engel coefficient of Japan was 22. 3%, while China's current urban coefficient is 37. 1%, and the rural coefficient is 45. 6%. That is to say, the living expenses of China people are mainly busy eating, while Japanese people spend their main expenses on other aspects besides food. China consumes for survival, while Japan consumes for development.
The saddest thing, however, is that China people, whose living standard is only equivalent to that of Japan in the 1960s, and whose consumption expenditure is only enough to eat and drink, often feel rich and often behave lavishly (for example, some people advocate hosting the Olympic Games), while Japanese people, whose living standard ranks among the top in the world, often cry for poverty internationally, practice strict economy everywhere and are often surprisingly "stingy"! Who is more stupid than who? Who is stupid?
Housing: In 2003, the per capita living area of urban residents in China was 18 square meters, while that in Japan was 25 square meters. Japan's land area is very small, which is 1.4 times that of China.
People's life depends not only on per capita income, but also on income gap. In 2000, China's Gini coefficient was 0. 4 14, which has reached the international warning level. China is recognized as one of the countries with the most unfair income distribution in the world. On the contrary, it is unexpected by many people. Although Japan is a capitalist country, it is one of the countries with the fairest income distribution in the world, with a Gini coefficient of 0. 285, which can be compared with any fairest period in the history of China.
Unemployment rate index: According to the statistics of the Ministry of Labor and Social Security, by the end of June 2003, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns nationwide was 4. 2%, the number of unemployed 7.95 million, an increase of 0. 2% and 250,000. However, there are many omissions in this data. Scholars estimate that the current urban unemployment rate in China, including registered unemployment, laid-off workers and other types of unemployment, totals about 8% to 10% (Wang Mengkui, 2003).
China media often report on Japan's economic difficulties and high unemployment rate in recent years. It seems that the Japanese people are no longer happy. In fact, the unemployment rate in Japan was only 5.5% at its peak. In 2003, with the economic recovery, the average unemployment rate dropped rapidly to 5. 3%.
Education: China people have always thought that they attach the most importance to education, and have repeatedly stressed that "no matter how hard they suffer, they can't afford education, no matter how poor they are". China's parents are really desperate for their children. However, due to the shortage of national education funds and the defects of the general education system, the adult literacy rate in China today is only 8 1.5%, and the number of illiterate and semi-illiterate people accounts for more than 15% of the population, which is still 8.5% away from the threshold of educational modernization. The gross enrollment rate of universities is 5%, which is 25% lower than the threshold of 30% education modernization.
In contrast, Japan is worthy of the reputation of attaching importance to education. Japan has already reached primary education 100% and junior high education100%; The gross enrollment rate of universities is 40. 3%, and the proportion of people with college education in the total population is as high as 48%. The adult literacy rate is nearly 100%.
How big is the educational gap between China and Japan? It is estimated that the primary education in China is equivalent to the Japanese level of 1900, which is 100 years behind. Secondary education is about equivalent to the level of Japan 19 10, 90 years behind; Higher education is about equivalent to the level of Japan 1920, which is 80 years behind.
One of the important reasons is that China's education expenditure is only about the level of Japanese 1920.
Let's look at the information indicators closely related to people's intelligence: At the end of 2003, the number of netizens in China was close to 80 million, and a huge "E country" was born, but the Internet penetration rate in China was very low, only 6. 2%.
The population of Japan is much smaller than that of China, but in the same period, the number of netizens reached 77.3 million, with a penetration rate of over 60%. Almost all Japanese aged 65,438+04-75 have access to the Internet.
In addition, Japan's network is relatively developed, and broadband communication costs are low and the speed is fast. The proportion of broadband internet access to household income is only 0. 8%, ranking first in the world. In China, however, the network speed is slow, the service is poor, and the use of broadband network is in the primary stage. The popularity of residential broadband in Shenzhen, which is at the forefront of the country, is only over 30%, while the level in general places in the country is quite low.
China's personal computer penetration rate is 27%, and the mobile phone penetration rate is 30%; Japan's personal computer penetration rate is 36%, and the mobile phone penetration rate is 69%. The gap between the two is also obvious.
Some people may say that Japan is only economically strong, technologically strong and materially strong, but Japanese civilization has nothing to boast about. Civilization is such a big topic that I dare not compare it here, but we can get a glimpse of it through some social indicators that China people are very concerned about.
As we all know, from the perspective of social credit and national quality, Japanese people are generally considered to be conscientious, efficient, punctual, trustworthy and polite; Japanese companies are also famous for their credit and excellent product quality. In the streets of Japan, you can't see garbage. Whether walking to a crowded subway or a crowded shopping mall, the ground is as clean as new, and there is no graffiti on the subway wall. Japanese seldom smoke and eat snacks in public places, and they have no habit of spitting and littering. The Japanese obey the traffic rules. No matter in bustling Tokyo, Osaka or ancient Kyoto, there is not a traffic policeman on the street. Cars and people strictly obey the traffic lights.
On the other hand, what is the situation of China with an ancient civilization? If we say that it is because the material civilization of China people is not enough, "we should know etiquette realistically". China people may be the nation that emphasizes "objective reasons" the most in the world. However, I ask you, the income level of China people today is equivalent to that of Japan in 1960, but it is far less civilized and polite than that in the 1950s when the per capita income level was several times different, and it is not as elegant as it was in the prosperous Tang Dynasty. Is it really "being polite to the facts"?
Corporate credit: As mentioned above, the bad debt records of Chinese commercial banks are unparalleled in the world, which shows that the credit records of Chinese enterprises are very poor. In addition, corporate default is rare in the world. According to statistics, in 20001year, China's state-owned enterprises owed each other more than 654.38+0.6 trillion yuan, the scale of counterfeit economy reached 65.438+0.27 billion yuan, and the country lost more than 25 billion yuan in tax revenue every year. According to the investigation of relevant departments, in 200 1 year, more than 650 kinds of products of 283 famous enterprises were infringed and forged by counterfeit products. In the first half of the year, the national industrial and commercial management system investigated and dealt with 5,338 illegal and criminal cases such as contract fraud, an increase of 6 1% over the same period of last year (Hou Yunchun, 2002). What does this mean? This shows that corporate fraud in China is seriously eroding the country's market economy.
In recent years, a new phenomenon has been added, that is, the arrears of wages for migrant workers by enterprises are getting worse and worse. According to the announcement of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions, the wages owed to migrant workers in China are estimated to be about 654.38+000 billion yuan, of which the construction industry accounts for more than 70%. In some places, contractors owe money to migrant workers, and builders owe money to contractors. Finally, it was found that the local government owed money to the builder. According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, more than a quarter of all projects are in arrears by governments all over the country.
Credit is making China's young market economy pay the price. Scholars in China are finally beginning to understand that it is not enough to rely on external legal supervision and internal corporate governance structure, but also people's culture and even beliefs to solve the credit problem. However, China's traditional cultural resources have been almost destroyed. To build cultural resources, China people don't know where to start. Japan, on the other hand, is a successful case of using traditional cultural resources to complete the modernization transformation. In fact, the Japanese changed the loyalty of samurai to their masters into the loyalty of enterprise employees, and then established the industrial and commercial credit of the whole society.
Divorce rate: China people never imagined that in 200 1 year, the Japanese divorce rate in "post-modern society" was only 0. 23%, the lowest among Asian countries. However, China society, which has always attached importance to the family, has gone from bad to worse: from 1980, the divorce rate in China is from 4. 75% to 1997, up 8. 25 percentage points. Among them, in the past 20 years, the divorce rate in Shanghai has increased by 20 times, making the world look askance: What happened to China people? Family is the cell of society, and marriage contains the sacred relationship between the two sexes. What will China's lack of stable family life bring to China people? Is it more irresponsible and selfish, or more spiritual freedom and personality liberation?
Corruption: You may not like Japan, but you must admit the fact that Japan is still one of the cleaner countries in the world. On March 25th this year, Transparency International, an internationally renowned anti-corruption NGO, released the 2004 Global Anti-Corruption Annual Report, which assessed the corruption situation in various regions of the world. In 133 countries and regions, China scored 3. On the corruption index, Japan ranks 66th with Sri Lanka and Syria, while Japan ranks among the 30 countries with the least corruption.
China is now shifting from pursuing GDP to "Scientific Outlook on Development". However, China has paid too much. By the end of 2000, China's forest area was only10.58 billion hectares, and its forest coverage was only 16.55%, which was only 610.3% of the world's forest coverage. The per capita forest area in China is 0. 1.28 hectares, which is only equivalent to 2 1 hectare per capita in the world. The forest coverage rate in Japan is nearly 64%, which is one of the countries with the highest forest coverage rate in the world.
That ancient country with tree-lined, beautiful scenery and full of poetry has nourished Li Bai and Du Fu, and now it has become the dream of China people! Land increasingly polluted by industry, dying land with desertification accounting for more than 1/3, the Yellow River, the Yellow River, and the long sand and dust blowing through Beijing in spring, like the sigh of Chinese mother, are the most severe warnings between heaven and earth. China, I can't help it. I'm overwhelmed.
With the earth, the hearts of China people have dried up. What is more desert than desert is also the heart of China people.
Why did the Japanese keep their land brilliant in the process of economic take-off, why didn't they let GDP fool their minds, and why did they take the road of Scientific Outlook on Development half a century earlier than China? Should China people put down their "noble" status and learn from it?
Life expectancy in China is relatively high. In 2000, the average life expectancy of men and women was 69.63 years and 73 years respectively. 33 years respectively. In the eyes of China people, the Japanese are the country with the greatest labor intensity and work pressure, but what you can't imagine is that Japan is the longest-lived country in the world. In 2003, the average life expectancy of Japanese women was 85 years. 33 years old, while men are 78 years old. In 33 years, they all set a world record. The average life expectancy of men and women in Japan has been ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, while the average life expectancy of women has been ranked first since 1985. Obviously, although China people emphasize "people-oriented", their life expectancy is not as long as that of Japanese people.
What country is Japan? In the eyes of many people, it seems to be a barbaric country, a country that never knows how to admit its mistakes, a country with heavy life pressure and unhappy people. However, we find that Japan is a country with developed economy, rich people, fair society, good bureaucracy, excellent education, stable family, beautiful environment, long life expectancy, foresight and great contribution to the world. To reach the current level of economic development with Japan, China may need decades of efforts in many aspects, and some aspects may even need hundreds of years of efforts.
Japan, by no means an idle generation, is not a country that is dying in the "illusion", but a country that is excellent in many aspects and deserves China people's serious reference and study. However, China is not a country that rose in an illusion and soon surpassed its great neighbor. China is just a country that has just recovered its vitality, with great prospects, and all parties need to work harder.
Perhaps, in the eyes of some cynical friends in China, they are never ashamed to associate with the Japanese, let alone learn from them. The Japanese are just enemies. Even so, please remember one sentence: the best revenge for the enemy is to "live better than him", not to make the other person live worse at all costs.
In order to live better than others, it is not enough to be full of blood and shout the slogan of skyshatter. What is needed more is hard work, real wisdom and down-to-earth action.