The first part introduces the development course, general situation and industry characteristics of the communication industry. In this part, we will discuss the basic characteristics and main financial indicators of the financial performance of the communication industry.
First of all, analyze the development stage of the industry from the upstream capital expenditure and changes.
The communication industry has obvious periodicity. Generally speaking, the capital expenditure of upstream operators determines the development stage of the current communication industry.
In the 3G cycle, the total capital expenditure of the three major domestic operators showed an upward trend in the first three years, and then decreased steadily after reaching the peak in the third year. From 2007 to 20 1 1, according to the promotion materials and annual reports of the three major operators, the capital expenditure was 654.38+0974 billion yuan, 255.2 billion yuan, 279.9 billion yuan, 237.5 billion yuan and 254.7 billion yuan respectively. In the 4G cycle, capital expenditure shows the same rule. From 20 13 to 20 18, the capital expenditure was 338.4 billion yuan, 376.9 billion yuan, 438.6 billion yuan, 356.2 billion yuan, 308.3 billion yuan and 286.9 billion yuan respectively. In the 5G cycle, 20 19 is the first year of 5G, and the capital expenditure from 20 19 to 2020 is 299.9 billion yuan and 333 billion yuan respectively. The capital expenditure of the three major operators is increasing year by year. It is estimated that the capital expenditure in 20021year will be 340.6 billion yuan, or it will reach the peak of 5G investment. Therefore, investors can judge the development of the industry according to the capital expenditure and changing trend of upstream operators.
Second, understand the transmission effect of upstream capital expenditure on the industry from the growth rate of revenue and the growth rate of net profit returned to the mother.
In the 4G cycle, the total capital expenditure of upstream operators increased year by year from 20 13 to 20 16. Taking the annual report data of a company as an example, this paper analyzes the industrial transmission effect. At 20 16%, 20 15%, 2 1%, 20 16%, 24%, 20 17%, 3% and 2065437. In the 5G cycle, the capital expenditure of upstream operators began to rise in 20 19, and the business income growth rate of the company's operators increased to 4% in 20 19, and the growth rate was 0.2% in 2020 (affected by the epidemic). The growth of the company is consistent with the growth of capital expenditure.
Third, understand the company's core technical capabilities from R&D investment.
Profitability indicators mainly include gross profit margin, net interest rate and R&D expenses. A company's moat, business model and competitiveness are mainly reflected in these indicators, which also reflect the company's core technical capabilities.
The communication industry has high entry threshold, rapid iterative development and obvious periodicity. Only by continuously investing in research and development can enterprises maintain their competitiveness in the industry. Taking the annual report data of a company as an example, its R&D expenditure has been increasing year by year since 2009, with 20 14 being 40.8 billion yuan, 2008 being101500 million yuan, BATJ 2020 being141900 million yuan, exceeding. R&D's continuous investment has brought the company a number of 5G core patents and a high market share. According to 199it, Ipytics, a patent data company, has 3 147 SEPs in the latest 5G patent ranking released in February 2020, ranking first. From the perspective of global market share of telecom equipment manufacturers, according to Dell'Oro data cited by Tencent.com and Prospective Industry Research Institute, with the continuous investment of R&D, the market share of the company has increased from 20% in 20 14 to 3 1% in 2020.
The communication industry is a cyclical industry, and the company's business often enters the downward period after maturity. In order to smooth out the fluctuation of development, some companies will acquire companies outside the communication industry, thus generating goodwill.
In 2020, the overall goodwill of the communication industry is 265,438+0.561billion yuan, accounting for 65,438+0.72% of the total assets and 3.36% of the net assets. If the acquired enterprise makes provision for impairment of goodwill, it will directly affect the company's financial profit. Investors should establish the concepts of rational investment and value investment, and improve their awareness of risk prevention and professional analysis ability.