Is it a game, or a desire to move forward?
In the endless debate between hybrid and pure electric technologies, it is still difficult to distinguish which one is better. Although Toyota launched the first-generation Prius in the 1990s, which officially opened the door for the automobile industry to move towards new energy, and now pure electric models led by Tesla have become popular, the diversified development of new energy has shown a situation where a hundred schools of thought are contending. situation. But it is undeniable that hybrid power, as a synonym for environmental pioneers, has become deeply rooted in the hearts of the people with Toyota's vigorous promotion.
Especially after the "sudden death" of electric vehicles such as the General Electric EV1 that appeared at almost the same time was aroused by market public opinion, Toyota's gasoline-electric hybrid has become the only way to unveil the future of new energy. Of course, in order to build a moat to block latecomers, Toyota applied for hundreds of patents after successfully developing hybrid technology, thereby establishing sufficient advantages. But this also blocks an effective shortcut to the new energy world.
However, starting in 2016, some of the patent protections held by Toyota Motor related to hybrid vehicles have gradually expired. In other words, Toyota's hybrid technology, which was once "invincible", has entered a period of high incidence of core patent invalidations and will face a situation where technical barriers are broken.
Recently, according to the Nikkei Asian Review, Toyota Motor plans to open its hybrid vehicle technology patents as early as this year. According to the report, Toyota is expected to provide 23,740 patents including motors, power conversion devices and system controllers. However, the disruption of technology monopolies is often subject to pressure from competitors and downstream suppliers. Perhaps Toyota is worried that hybrid vehicles will lose their important position as the entire industry shifts to pure electric vehicles, so they proactively open up technology patents in order to seek linkage as early as possible and borrow the help of others to expand the capacity of the hybrid market again.
The "sense of superiority" swallowed by the crisis
In the early days of the development of new energy, there was always a saying lingering over this new blue ocean, "There are two kinds of hybrids in the world. One is Toyota hybrid, and the other is others. "There is no doubt that in the field of hybrid power, Toyota has become the leading force in the industry with its profound technology. After all, it has been 22 years since Toyota began to delve into the hybrid market in 1997.
During this period, Toyota has never seemed to question hybrid technology and has consistently regarded it as a weapon that can change the direction of future automobile development. Not only that, today's Toyota has even extended the "three electric" core technologies accumulated over the past 20 years to other new energy electric drive fields such as pure electric, plug-in hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
However, compared with other new energy situations, Toyota is still "steadfast in its own way" in vigorously promoting gasoline-electric hybrids. Perhaps in the eyes of Toyota, which is accustomed to acting cautiously, it is still too early to make a rash transformation when the remaining problems of electric vehicles such as range anxiety, lack of infrastructure, and high depreciation rates have not been properly resolved. But reality gave the "idealistic" Toyota a blow.
As the environment continues to deteriorate, major countries around the world are strengthening environmental protection restrictions on automobiles. For example, CAFE (Average Fuel Economy), a regulation that limits the average fuel efficiency of models sold by various car companies, has gradually been adopted by the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries and regions, and may once again boost the development of the new energy market. .
What’s more noteworthy is that in Europe, which has the most stringent environmental standards, the carbon dioxide emissions of cars have been capped at 130 grams/km in 2015. By 2021, this value will be reduced to 95 grams. /km, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with 2015. If car manufacturers fail to achieve this goal, they will also be fined.
At the same time, the United Kingdom, France, Spain... are planning to ban the sales of gasoline, diesel and hybrid vehicles in their countries starting from 2040. Therefore, in the long run, the development of hybrid technology in Europe is just a helpless move during the transition period. It seems that vigorously developing pure electric and other clean energy models is the right choice for car companies to make in order to adapt to the development of the times.
However, at the just past Geneva Motor Show, Toyota rarely displayed its entire range of hybrid models at the booth, and attached the "Hybrid" logo under the bull head logo in the C position. This series of actions shows that Toyota is still trying to squeeze out the last bit of value through hybrid technology in Europe, which has set the core of its development on the path of pure electric technology and has no interest in hybrid technology.
On the other hand, China, the area hardest hit by the chaos in new energy development, is not as friendly to hybrid vehicles as it used to be. The implemented dual-point policy stipulates that in 2019 and 2020, the points proportion requirements for new energy vehicles are 10% and 12% respectively. As a result, the development route of new energy vehicles has shifted to a direction dominated by pure electric technology. What's more, China has also excluded some hybrid models from the new energy camp.
The sudden change in the market has allowed Toyota to accelerate the introduction of deep new energy models including pure electric and plug-in vehicles. Especially when the Corolla PHEV and Ralink PHEV fell into the embarrassing situation of declining subsidy policies when they were launched on the market, Toyota's plan to introduce pure electric models as soon as possible to assist hybrid models has become more urgent.
Of course, in this regard, Toyota China Chairman Hiroshi Onishi also said, "Toyota plans to be the first to introduce Toyota-branded pure electric models in the Chinese market ahead of other countries in 2020. At present, the popularity of pure electric vehicles in the Chinese market Development is very rapid. In order to better respond to the needs of the market, Toyota believes that it should take multi-faceted and extensive measures and actively explore the possibility of introducing pure electric vehicles provided by joint venture partners FAW Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group into FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota.”
Of course, hybrid technology is an inevitable technological evolution when fuel vehicles develop to a certain stage, and it also provides an ideal solution for improving the fuel economy of vehicles. But none of this fully represents the endgame of technological development. The almost crazy updates of pure electric technology have made Toyota, which has been in the comfort zone of new energy for many years, start to have new thoughts on how to use the hybrid technology that has been guarded for more than 20 years to produce more "nutrients".
Technological blockade cannot win the era
Some people say that Toyota's release of the right to use hybrid technology patents for free is actually a wave of "injury to the enemy by one thousand, but self-destruction of eight hundred." "The Seven Injury Fist. However, in fact, tearing down some of Toyota's patent barriers to other car companies does not mean that hybrid models will flood the market and become a strong enemy that can threaten Toyota.
On the one hand, Toyota has an overwhelming advantage in hybrid vehicle technology. On the other hand, the brand influence it has accumulated over time is still unmatched by anyone. This is also the reason why sales of Toyota's hybrid models have remained high even as pure electric models have begun to encroach on China's new energy market.
In 2018, the sales of Toyota's Corolla Twin Engine and Ralink Twin Engine in the A-class hybrid vehicle market reached 82,430 and 42,730 units respectively. The B-class hybrid model, the Camry Twin Engine, also surpassed the sales of the Accord Hybrid. motor vehicles, reaching 24,119 vehicles. After entering 2019, with the launch of Asia Dragon Twin Engine, Toyota's hybrid model sales in China are expected to increase again.
It can be seen that in markets such as China that have not yet implemented such strict emission policies as Europe, Toyota's vigorous promotion of hybrid models has achieved remarkable results. However, Toyota's bright moments in markets such as China still cannot conceal the risk that hybrid models will have a weakening presence in the entire future environment. "Be prepared for danger in times of peace, and be prepared when you are prepared. If you are prepared, you dare to follow this rule." Therefore, it can almost be concluded that the opening of hybrid technology should be Toyota's intention.
At least this can encourage companies that have been lacking in the hybrid vehicle business to enter, and by providing them with free technology, the market competitiveness of hybrid vehicles can be improved before pure electric vehicles are truly popular. . At the same time, if the external sales of hybrid technology-related parts increase demand, the cost of similar pure electric models is expected to further decline.
In fact, apart from traditional car companies that are interested in hybrids, the new car-making forces that have been growing in recent years should not be underestimated. Thanks to the low entry threshold for pure electric vehicles and the subsidy policy focusing on pure electric vehicles, the possibility of new forces building cars to achieve overtaking in corners in China has increased.
Moreover, at the beginning of 2019, Tesla CEO Elon Musk also issued a document announcing that Tesla would unreservedly open up all electric vehicle patents and simultaneously maintain and support the electric vehicle industry. development to cope with environmental changes and solve problems such as energy crisis. This is another major initiative after Baidu first shared "unmanned driving technology". If it can be implemented, it will definitely bring a new situation to the development of electric vehicles.
What’s even more frightening is that these forward-thinking industry disruptors do not emphasize the incremental development of basic technology research, but are looking for how to transform the traditional automobile industry into an industry that also focuses on new energy and autonomous vehicles. Opportunities for service providers with multiple characteristics such as driving, Internet of Vehicles, car sharing and mobile travel.
Under the influence of one decision leading to the emergence of another, an inflection point in industrial change was born. It is naturally not a wise move for Toyota to stick to hybrid technology to "please" itself. In fact, Toyota had already promoted hybrid technology to other car companies before this. Last year, Toyota Motor launched technical cooperation with Geely Automobile through its Chinese hybrid core component supplier partner Corun.
Times are changing and the trend is unstoppable. In short, for Toyota, which has always retained its "ambition", choosing to open hybrid technology at this time is more like a strategic change, rather than just an act of attracting bees and butterflies. In other words, Toyota is likely to welcome "colleagues" who are willing to work together to achieve technological integration. While helping it find and fill gaps in hybrid technology, it will once again expand the shrinking hybrid car market, and finally realize its own Pure electric related technologies continue to advance.
Text/Cao Jiadong
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