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Introduction: Taking advantage of the industry trend of electric vehicles, the power battery industry has risen rapidly, and the world has formed a The industry structure in which companies from China, South Korea, and South Korea compete for hegemony, and giants such as Panasonic, LG, and CATL are competing against each other.
Behind the surface calm, a new round of great changes is brewing - solid-state batteries are about to set off a new wave of technological changes, Japanese and Korean companies have returned to the Chinese market after the whitelist of power batteries has been removed, and global car companies With parts giants also getting involved in the battery industry, a big change is about to take place.
To this end, Chexixi has launched a series of reports called "Big Changes in Power Batteries" to explain in detail the changes in the global power battery industry. This article is one of the series of reports.
“The size of the vehicle power battery market in 2025 will be seven times that of 2018.” In the middle of this year, the global power battery giant Panasonic gave its own prediction on the grand prospects of the power battery market.
According to Tianfeng Securities’ forecast, the global power battery market will reach 163.7 billion yuan in 2020; by 2025, the power battery market will climb to 500 billion yuan; in the long term, by In 2030, the global power battery market is likely to rise to a high of 1.3 trillion yuan.
At the same time, according to rough calculations based on data from Tianfeng Securities, the scale of the domestic power battery market will be close to 500 billion yuan between 2020 and 2030. China's power battery market, which is worth hundreds of billions, has attracted many giants.
On one side are Chinese power battery companies represented by CATL and BYD. In the four years from 2016 to 2019, China's power battery industry has grown rapidly, and domestic companies have gradually strengthened their market layout and technical capabilities.
On the other side, there are the Japanese and Korean power battery armies represented by Panasonic, Samsung SDI, and LG Chem. Japanese and Korean giants who were once excluded from the "power battery whitelist" are dominating overseas markets and winning orders from many car companies. At the same time, they are also secretly gearing up to return to the Chinese market after subsidies in the Chinese market decline. plan.
It is understood that Japanese and Korean power battery forces, represented by Panasonic and LG Chem, have increased their presence in the Chinese market since 2017, and most projects will be put into production or achieve production capacity in 2020-2021. Released, Japanese and Korean power battery giants have set their sights on the point where domestic new energy vehicle subsidies will be completely withdrawn.
At the same time, in June 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced in advance the abolition of the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" and four batches of enterprise directory lists. The domestic power battery market officially lost its protective umbrella, and Japanese and Korean power battery giants returned The Chinese market is accelerating.
▲The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the abolition of the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions"
Since the rise of the power battery wave, Japanese and Korean power battery companies have led almost every wave of technological changes. With the help of technology With the advantage of being first-mover, Japanese and Korean power battery companies such as Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI have grown into industry giants. The return of the giants to China is bound to have an impact on the Chinese power battery market.
However, China’s power battery industry has experienced four golden years from 2016 to 2019. Technology, scale, and market have also made great progress, and the binding relationship between car companies and domestic power battery manufacturers has also Gradually taking shape, can Japanese and Korean power battery companies really sweep the Chinese market like the autumn wind sweeping away fallen leaves?
Who is the stronger power battery power among China, Japan and South Korea?
Where will China’s power battery market go?
This article attempts to answer the above questions based on the development and changes experienced by major power battery players in China, Japan and South Korea in recent years.
1. Are the four giants of Japan and South Korea increasing their presence in the Chinese market? The "Three Kingdoms Killing" situation has reappeared
At present, the domestic power battery market is facing a formidable enemy.
If the original plan remains unchanged, the domestic new energy vehicle subsidy policy will completely withdraw from the market starting in 2020.
The entire industry will shift from "policy-led" to "market-led." In short, the domestic new energy vehicle industry, which was previously protected by policies, will be exposed to the "firepower" of foreign-funded enterprises without distinction.
From the downstream new energy vehicle industry to the upstream power battery and various core component industries, no one is spared.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once issued the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" for the power battery industry, and provided four batches of lists of qualified companies (commonly known as the "Power Battery White List"). However, in June 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology abolished these documents and the white list became invalid. Japanese and Korean power battery companies that were once excluded from the "power battery white list" are increasing their presence in the Chinese market. Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI , SKI Group and other Japanese and Korean power battery companies have long been prepared to compete in the Chinese market.
1. Japanese power battery company: Panasonic
Japanese power battery company Panasonic is the least affected by the "power battery whitelist" among all foreign-funded power battery companies, and it is also the company in China. The foreign-funded power battery company with the fastest business layout.
▲Panasonic Headquarters
In the early days, Panasonic was Tesla’s exclusive supplier. Coupled with Tesla’s large shipments of new energy models, Panasonic produced the vast majority of power batteries. Most are supplied to Tesla.
After Panasonic signed an agreement with Tesla to expand the supply of power batteries in 2013, its own production capacity was tight, and its production lines were fully operational to supply Tesla with 18650 ternary lithium batteries. The next year, Panasonic invested 2.7 billion yuan to build a Dalian factory with an annual production capacity of 5GWh, mainly used to supply prismatic power batteries to Panasonic's foreign partners.
In Panasonic's customer list, the number and order volume of Chinese vehicle companies are small, and the "power battery whitelist" restrictions have limited impact on Panasonic.
However, with the development of China's new energy vehicle market, Panasonic has begun to increase its power battery business layout in China.
In May 2017, Panasonic formed a joint venture with Jetstar New Energy Technology (Suzhou) Co., Ltd. and the Suzhou government to build a Suzhou power battery factory. In the second half of 2017, the factory was put into production with an annual production capacity of 18650 batteries and 100 million batteries.
In September 2018, Panasonic and Lianhe Tianyi entered into a joint venture. Both parties jointly invested 20 billion yuan and planned to build a power battery factory with a total production capacity of 30GWh in Jiangyin, Jiangsu in phases. The project includes lithium-ion batteries and molds. Group, R&D and manufacturing of electric vehicle power systems and energy storage systems.
In December 2018, foreign media revealed that Panasonic would invest "hundreds of millions of dollars" in the Dalian factory that has been put into production to increase the production capacity of the Dalian factory from 5GWh to 12GWh.
Behind a series of actions, Panasonic’s influence in China’s power battery market has been greatly strengthened.
2. Korean power battery companies: LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SKI Group
The process of Korean power battery companies expanding into the Chinese market is relatively bumpy. Among them, There are policy tendencies and geopolitical factors.
Like all foreign-funded power battery companies, Korean power battery companies LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and SKI Group have not entered the directory of enterprises that meet the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standards and Conditions" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2016.
If you continue to use power batteries from the above three companies, the OEMs will lose huge subsidies for new energy vehicles and their profitability will drop significantly. At the same time, in 2016, South Korea brazenly deployed the THAAD anti-missile system despite warnings from the Chinese government, and domestic anti-South Korea sentiment rose.
Under the influence of dual factors, domestic vehicle manufacturers that had already cooperated have canceled orders from Korean power battery companies.
LG Chem had previously built a Nanjing power battery factory in 2014, which can supply power batteries for 50,000 pure electric vehicles every year. However, after losing orders in China, LG Chem was forced to Sold factory equipment and related intellectual property rights to Hengyuan New Energy, a subsidiary of Geely.
Coincidentally, the business of Samsung SDI and SKI in China also suffered setbacks around 2017. The former stopped the construction of the second phase of the Xi'an power battery factory, and the latter jointly established BESK with Beijing Electronic Control and BAIC Group. Directly discontinued.
▲Samsung Xi’an Power Battery Factory
In the following nearly a year, Korean power battery companies ceased operations and almost withdrew from the Chinese market.
However, as subsidies have been reduced and the market environment has improved, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and SKI Group have restarted their layout in the Chinese power battery market.
In July 2018, LG Chem’s battery project was signed and settled in Nanjing. The project includes three types of production lines: power batteries, energy storage batteries and small batteries. The factory plans to have 23 electrode and battery cell production lines. Power batteries There are 16 production lines.
The project started in October 2018. By the end of 2019, the first phase of the project had been completed and put into production, with an annual production capacity of 10GWh.
LG Chem said that the plant will fully release its production capacity in 2023, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 32GWh.
As LG Chem returns to the Chinese market, Samsung SDI and SKI have also stepped up their presence in the Chinese power battery market.
In July 2018, SKI announced the construction of a 7.5GWh power battery factory in Changzhou, Jiangsu. In October of the same year, SKI announced an additional investment of 2.5 billion yuan to support the separator production line for the power battery factory.
At the end of 2018, Samsung SDI restarted the second phase of the Xi'an power battery factory project that had been suspended for two years.
South Korean power battery companies are gradually regaining their presence in the Chinese market, and their production capacity is close to 50GWh.
The current domestic power battery market is somewhat like the "Three Kingdoms" situation formed around 2014 when a new energy boom started in China and Japanese and Korean power batteries collectively entered the Chinese market.
But today is different from the past. Domestic vehicle manufacturers have basically completed binding with large power battery supply companies such as CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech.
Power battery products and complete vehicles require complex customization, matching, and verification work. Production factors such as time, manpower, and funds are indispensable. Are vehicle companies willing to abandon mature supply chains? There is still a question mark when choosing a "seemingly high-end" foreign power battery supplier.
What’s more, in the cold winter of the auto market, many vehicle companies are seeking to reduce costs and increase efficiency. The cost of re-adapting power batteries from a new supplier is worth thinking twice about.
Under such a premise, will the return of Japanese and Korean power battery companies really have a huge impact on the domestic power battery market?
2. Do Japan and South Korea dominate the world of power batteries? Why did they fail in the Chinese market four years ago?
To face up to whether Japanese and Korean power battery companies’ return to China will have a huge impact on the domestic power battery market, we also need to correctly understand the profound heritage and strong strength of Japanese and Korean power battery companies.
Thanks to the industrial dividends in the consumer electronics era, the Japanese and Korean power battery industries have taken the lead from the beginning.
Taking Japanese battery factories as an example, the industrial application solution for lithium batteries was first successfully developed by Sony. In the last century, Japan's three major battery manufacturers Sony, Panasonic, and Sanyo covered almost the entire Japanese consumer electronics industry. They also exported a large number of products, and their business scope expanded from consumer electronics to energy storage, automotive power batteries and other fields.
During the development process, Sony, the former promoter of the industrialization of 18650 circular lithium batteries, misjudged the potential of lithium batteries outside the field of consumer electronics and missed the wave of power batteries and energy storage. Subsequently, it It sold its lithium battery business to Murata and sadly withdrew from the battery market.
As for Sanyo, due to the overcapacity of its foundries and its own lack of innovation, various businesses of the group were gradually divided and acquired. Among them, Sanya Motor, which is responsible for the automotive power battery business, was acquired by Panasonic in 2009.
In the brutal elimination system in Japan, Panasonic became the only one of the three companies to survive. Through early exploration of power batteries and the absorption of Sanyo Electric, the power battery business developed and expanded, and gradually became Representative of Japanese power battery companies.
In terms of technology, while inheriting the 18650 cylindrical lithium battery solution, Panasonic also developed a new 21700 cylindrical lithium battery technology route, achieving a 35% increase in power battery cell capacity and a 20% increase in energy density. %, the system cost is reduced by 9%, and the system weight is reduced by 10%, further improving the competitiveness of the product.
▲Panasonic 21700 cylindrical lithium battery?
In addition, Panasonic has developed NCA system cathode materials and achieved a single cell energy density of 340Wh/kg. Tesla equipped with Panasonic NCA21700 Pulling Model 3, the current comprehensive energy density of the power battery pack has reached 153Wh/kg.
In addition, Panasonic is also developing a silicon-based anode system with Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. to further increase the energy density of the NCA21700 cylindrical power battery.
You must know that Panasonic has been supplying NCA21700 cylindrical power batteries to Tesla in batches since 2017, while the domestic NCM811 power battery of the same generation was mass-produced by CATL in 2019. The monomer energy density is 304Wh/kg.
This means that not only is Panasonic ahead of domestic power battery technology in terms of the single energy of power battery cells; in terms of mass production time, Panasonic is also two years ahead of domestic products of the same generation. Two years are enough for Panasonic to optimize the technical route of the NCA21700 cylindrical power battery and achieve low-cost and stable mass production.
In terms of production capacity, Panasonic has built 8 factories in China, the United States, and Japan. It is expected that production capacity will continue to be released in 2020, reaching 52GWh.
As for partners, Panasonic’s cylindrical power batteries are almost exclusively supplied to Tesla, while the prismatic batteries produced at the Dalian factory are mainly supplied to North American and European car companies. Currently, Panasonic's partners include Tesla, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz and other well-known car companies, and the number of supporting models reached 58 in 2018.
Although Panasonic’s shipments in 2018 were slightly lower than CATL, the largest domestic power battery company, in terms of technical roadmap, production capacity construction and cooperative customers, Panasonic not only did not lag behind, but also advanced in all aspects. Leading.
Compared with the fierce competition in the Japanese power battery industry, the Korean power battery industry is relatively mild.
At present, South Korea's three major power battery companies, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, and SKI, have entered the power battery industry from different fields, and there are certain differences in their respective technical routes and layouts. But overall, the mutual erosion of market share is not serious.
LG Chem is currently the largest soft-pack power battery supplier in the world in terms of shipments. It launched a power battery research and development project in 2000, and cooperated with Hyundai and Kia around 2008 to officially start the commercialization process.
▲LG Chem Soft Packaging?
In terms of technology, LG Chem has rich experience in the development of chemical materials. In the early days of research and development of power batteries, LG Chem established technical barriers to separator and electrolyte technology, and cultivated a group of high-quality suppliers based on its own technology, consolidating LG Chem's position in the power battery industry.
In addition, LG Chem, as one of the first companies to lay out soft-pack power batteries, covers most of the core patents of soft-pack batteries. In 2019, LG Chem’s soft-pack batteries accounted for 16% of the global market share. , and has a continued growth trend.
In terms of production capacity deployment, LG Chem has built four factories in China, South Korea, the United States, and Europe. Its current production capacity has exceeded 23GWh. The company predicts that its production capacity will expand to 110GWh by 2021.
With its huge production capacity and advanced power battery mass production technology, LG Chem has the ability to absorb orders from the world's top electric vehicle companies. At the end of 2019, Tesla announced that the Model 3 production line of the Chinese factory would be put into mass production. Its second supplier first chose LG Chem instead of the Chinese power battery company.
In addition, LG Chem has also cooperated with mainstream European, American and Korean car companies such as Hyundai, General Motors, Ford, Daimler, and Volkswagen. It mainly supplies 12 models, and the battery cell energy density exceeds 200Wh/ kg. According to statistics from Soochow Securities, in 2018, LG Chem's power battery shipments were 7.4GWh, and in 2019, LG Chem's power battery shipments exceeded 10GWh.
Samsung SDI mainly promotes prismatic power batteries and entered the power battery market at almost the same time as LG Chem. In 2008, Samsung SDI formed a joint venture with automotive Tier 1 Bosch to establish a power battery company SB Limotive and began to supply power batteries to BMW.
▲Bosch and Samsung SDI jointly established SB Limotive
In 2015, Samsung SDI acquired Magna’s power battery pack subsidiary MSBS (Magna Steyr Battery Systems) GmbH & Co OG), has accelerated the process of globalization and has built three power battery factories in China, the United States and Hungary. Its production capacity has also increased to 22GWh, which is very close to LG Chem.
In terms of technology, Samsung SDI has firmly adhered to the NCM ternary lithium battery route and gradually evolved from NCM523 to NCM622 and NCM811. Its single energy density has increased from 130Wh/kg in 2016 to 250Wh in 2019. /kg.
In terms of cooperating with car companies, Samsung SDI mainly cooperates with BMW. Other core customers include Volkswagen, Mahindra and Lucid Motors, and supplies more than 30 models.
SKI’s technical route is similar to Samsung SDI. The company began to increase the layout of power batteries in 2017, but the overall scale is still small. According to Everbright Securities data, SKI Group's power battery production capacity in 2018 was only 3.9GWh, which is close to domestic second-tier power battery factories, and there are fewer supporting customers, mainly secondary suppliers for Hyundai, BAIC, Daimler and other companies.
Overall, Japanese and Korean power battery companies are very competitive in terms of technology, product strength, and production capacity.
So, can Japanese and Korean power battery companies use these hard powers to subvert China's power battery industry? The answer is not necessarily.
As early as 2016, Japanese and Korean power battery companies had tried to establish a presence in China.
In 2014, the power battery factories of Panasonic and LG Chem were successively established in Dalian and Nanjing, China. In the following two years, Samsung SDI factory was established in Xi'an, China, and SKI established a joint venture with Beijing Electronic Control and BAIC Group. The company BESK produces power batteries.
So, what is the result of the first wave of layout of Japanese and Korean power battery companies? The answer is a disastrous failure.
Japanese and Korean power battery companies entered China relatively late, with LG Chem, the earliest company, only building its Nanjing factory in 2014.
Before 2016, Japanese and Korean power batteries had not yet completed large-scale vehicle matching with vehicle manufacturers, and shipments were low. Gaogong Lithium Battery data shows that in 2015, nearly 80% of domestic power battery shipments were accounted for by the top ten, and the top ten were entirely domestic power battery companies. The market share of Japanese and Korean power battery companies was less than 2%.
When Japanese and Korean power battery companies were about to launch their deployment in China, at the end of 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Automotive Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions" and issued four lists of qualified companies in 2016 ( Commonly known as "power battery whitelist").
For the purpose of protecting the development of the domestic power battery industry, the "power battery white list" does not include Japanese and Korean power battery companies, which also means that the products of Japanese and Korean power battery companies cannot enjoy domestic new energy. Under the automobile subsidy policy, Japanese and Korean power batteries are excluded.
In addition, geopolitical friction has also become the last straw for Korean power battery companies. In 2016, the South Korean government deployed the THAAD anti-missile system, which greatly threatened surrounding security and aroused domestic anti-Korean sentiment. At that time, Samsung SDI's batteries also exploded. This round of rhythm caused Korean power battery companies to The country is struggling.
The previous round of Japanese and Korean power batteries’ entry into China was quite difficult.
3. The "Golden Four Years" of China's power batteries
Low market acceptance, policy protection, and geopolitical frictions have led to the first round of Japanese and Korean power battery companies entering China. The layout suffered heavy losses, and it also missed the golden period of China's new energy market development from 2016 to 2019.
During this golden period, China’s power battery industry has experienced rapid growth.
From the perspective of players, the centralization trend of China’s power battery industry has become increasingly obvious, with the number of companies shrinking from 20 in 2016 to 6 in 2019.
▲Changes in the number of domestic power battery industry companies in recent years
The industry has gradually formed with CATL and BYD as the first echelon, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BAK Battery, and Tianjin Li Magic lamp enterprises are in the second echelon of the industrial structure. At the same time, the market share of the first tier, especially that of CATL, continues to expand. On the contrary, the market space and player scale of the second tier are tending to shrink further.
The entire industry is moving from a period of barbaric growth to a period of maturity.
From the perspective of technological evolution, the technical route of China's power battery industry has switched from the early lithium iron phosphate route to the NCM ternary lithium route, and completed the transition from NCM523, NCM622 to NCM811 within four years. Technology iteration.
With the iteration of technology, the energy density of China's domestic power battery cells has also increased from 140Wh/kg in the lithium iron phosphate era to 304Wh/kg in the NCM811 ternary lithium battery. CATL has also become the world's first A company that mass-produces NCM811 ternary lithium batteries.
In terms of market, due to the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market, the power battery market is also rising.
▲Changes in key indicators of the domestic power battery industry in recent years
In 2016, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries was 28.3GWh. In 2018, the domestic installed capacity of power batteries reached 56.9GWh. Comparison In 2016, the growth exceeded 100%.
Output increased from 30.8GWh in 2016 to 70.6GWh in 2018; production capacity increased from 90GWh in 2016 to 260GWh in 2018.
It can be seen from the above data that the domestic power battery market has experienced substantial growth in recent years, but the widening gap between production capacity and vehicle loading also reflects the structural overcapacity in my country’s power battery industry. Phenomenon.
Another phenomenon that reflects the rapid development of the domestic power battery market is that in addition to deploying in the domestic market, some competitive power battery companies have begun to receive orders from foreign car companies and deploy in overseas markets. Among them, the more typical ones include power battery companies such as CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BAK Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Sunwanda.
It is understood that CATL is the first power battery company in China to have contact with foreign car companies. In 2012, CATL reached a cooperation with BMW to supply power batteries. In 2018, CATL officially signed a 4 billion euro (approximately 31.1 billion yuan) order with BMW, becoming BMW's global power battery supplier.
The successful cooperation between CATL and BMW has brought it a series of international car companies, including Volkswagen, General Motors, Nissan, Honda, Daimler and other well-known car companies.
In addition, CATL has also planned a 100GWh power battery factory in Germany, with production capacity expected to be fully released in 2026. Once this factory is completed, it will surpass the Nevada Gigafactory (35GWh production capacity) jointly owned by Panasonic and Tesla and become the world's largest power battery factory.
In addition to CATL, since 2018, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BAK Battery, Funeng Technology, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Xinwangda have also received supporting orders from overseas car companies.
For example, Guoxuan Hi-Tech reached a cooperation agreement with Bosch in February 2019 to provide it with lithium-ion batteries, modules and battery packs (parts, products), etc. In addition, it also It plans to cooperate with Indian automobile group Tata to provide power batteries for its passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
Funeng Technology won a power battery order of more than 10 billion euros from Daimler in December 2018. According to the agreement, Funeng Technology will provide Daimler with power battery orders from 2021 to 2027. Le provides a total of 140GWh of batteries.
From the perspective of industrial structure changes, technological breakthroughs, market growth and export layout, the absence of Japanese and Korean power battery companies from 2016 to 2019 has become the golden four years for the development of China's power battery industry.
4. China, Japan and South Korea’s power batteries compete again? Who is stronger?
So, on one side is China’s power battery industry, which has been developing rapidly for four years, and on the other side are Japanese and Korean power battery companies that have deployed overseas and continue to make breakthroughs in technology and production capacity. Battery forces will gather again in the Chinese market. Who is more competitive?
Based on public information, Chexixi compiled a comparison of the core indicators of the competitiveness of power battery companies in China, Japan and South Korea.
▲Comparison of core competitive indicators of power batteries in China and South Korea
From a technical perspective, the Japanese power battery company Panasonic still maintains a leading position. The company cooperates with Tesla in research and development The energy density of the NCA21700 cylindrical power battery cell can reach 340Wh/kg.
The energy density of this battery cell is currently ahead of CATL’s NCM811 power battery (304Wh/kg) and LG Chem’s power battery products (253Wh/kg).
In addition, in terms of power battery cost, according to information previously released by research institution UBS, Panasonic’s power battery cost has dropped to 773 yuan/kWh, and LG Chem’s power battery cost is around 1,031 yuan/kWh. The cost of CATL’s power battery is 1,042 yuan/kWh. By calculating the proportion of BYD power battery cost in the entire vehicle and the charging capacity of BYD Tang EV, it can be concluded that the cost of BYD power battery is approximately 1,100 yuan/kWh.
In terms of cost, Panasonic’s advantage is not small.
However, in terms of shipments, cooperative customers, production capacity and supporting models, CATL, as the industry leader, still has a certain advantage over Panasonic and LG Chem.
In 2018, CATL ranked first in the world with a shipment volume of 23.5GWh, followed closely by Panasonic, which ranked second with a shipment volume of 20.7GWh.
In terms of cooperative customers, CATL has cooperated with 15 major car companies around the world. Panasonic cooperates with 12 car companies and LG Chem cooperates with 9 car companies.
In terms of supporting models, Panasonic supported 58 models in 2018 and is expected to have 7 models in 2019. The main customer is still Tesla. Since LG Chem increased its investment in power battery business in 2017, it has been rapidly expanding into car companies in Europe and the United States. It currently has 9 major cooperative car companies and mainly supports 12 models.
The data of supporting models of CATL includes commercial models, so the number of supporting models of CATL in the table greatly exceeds that of Panasonic and LG Chem, reaching 1,00 models.
According to Che Dongxi’s estimates, CATL’s supporting models will see a significant increase this year. Domestic joint venture car companies have basically chosen CATL as their power battery supplier. This year, the joint venture car companies will There will be many electric models on the market.
Summary by camp, the Japanese power battery company Panasonic currently has a greater technical advantage. When it subsequently enters the Chinese market to develop business, the lower cost and higher power battery energy density will provide it with a lot of benefits. Strong competitiveness.
However, Panasonic is currently relatively conservative in building production capacity and expanding customer channels. Soochow Securities predicts that Panasonic's growth in the next few years may lag behind that of CATL and LG Chem.
South Korean power battery company LG Chem currently has few bright spots in terms of product strength and cooperative car companies, but the company plans to increase its production capacity to 110GWh in 2020-2021. At the same time, LG Chem is also rapidly expanding its cooperation with car companies. If the speed of production capacity expansion and business expansion can be coordinated, LG Chem will likely become one of the fastest growing power battery companies from 2020 to 2025.
Although the energy density and cell cost of CATL’s power batteries, a domestic power battery company, are not as good as those of Panasonic, it has a large number of cooperative car companies and has reached power battery supply agreements with internationally renowned car companies such as Volkswagen and BMW. At the same time, a 100GWh power battery factory is planned in Germany. As the scale of mass production of power batteries expands, the decline in product costs will accelerate. Not surprisingly, CATL will maintain high growth for some time to come, and at the same time, the proportion of its overseas business will continue to expand.
5. The arrival of Japanese and Korean power batteries is accelerating? The living space of domestic second-tier manufacturers is compressed
Japanese and Korean power battery companies have returned to China very quickly, and their product and technical capabilities are close to It even exceeds the domestic top level, but after the "golden four years" of development, the domestic power battery industry has leading companies that can stand up to Japanese and Korean power battery companies.
So back to the three major questions at the beginning of the article:
1. Can Japanese and Korean power battery companies really sweep the Chinese market like the autumn wind sweeping away fallen leaves?
2. Who is the stronger power battery power among China, Japan and South Korea?
3. Where will China’s power battery market go?
The answer to the first question must be very clear. Domestic power battery company CATL is not completely behind in terms of technology, production capacity and cooperative car companies. Even thanks to the domestic environment, CATL has obtained better customer resources than Panasonic and LG Chem. This can be seen from the fact that CATL has ranked first in power battery shipments in recent years.
In addition, domestic power battery manufacturers such as Yiwei Lithium Energy and Funeng Technology have also received large orders from internationally renowned car companies such as Daimler. With the help of cooperation with well-known car companies, these second-tier power battery manufacturers The company is not without opportunities to turn around. It is entirely possible for the top domestic power battery companies to resist the invasion of Japanese and Korean power battery companies.
The second question now seems to have an answer. Japanese technology is indeed superior, but the development speed is faster than that of China and South Korea. To put it simply, the Japanese power battery company Panasonic has superior technology and cost, but currently has few partners and relies too much on Tesla. This time Tesla chose LG Chem as its secondary supplier after domestic production, and Panasonic’s position was immediately challenged. .
There are currently many Korean competitive players, and LG Chem is the strongest. Its advantages are reflected in its deep industrial chain layout, many car companies it has joined hands with, and its rapid expansion of production capacity. However, the growth momentum of the new energy vehicle market is ultimately limited. LG Chem plans to reach a production capacity of 110GWh by 20201, and it is easy to fall into a situation of overcapacity.
The domestic CATL product technology is more competitive and is tied to many car companies. However, relatively speaking, the cost of its battery cells is relatively high, and subsequent measures will need to be taken to reduce costs and increase efficiency to make its products more advantageous when competing with similar products from Japanese and Korean power battery companies.
The third question is, where will China’s power battery market go? Based on the analysis of the article and the communication between Che Dongxi and industry insiders, three trends can be drawn at present:
1. The living space of domestic second-tier power battery companies has been compressed, and hard indicators such as products, costs, and production capacity have been If the Korean power battery factory surpasses it, it is likely to lose its current cooperative car companies, and the second-tier power battery factory faces the risk of being eliminated.
2. It will still take a certain amount of time for car companies and Japanese and Korean power battery companies to customize, match and test power batteries. This time cycle will probably last 1-2 years. That is to say, Japanese and Korean power batteries will enter the domestic market on a large scale around 2021. Before then, it is a time window for domestic power battery companies to seek breakthroughs in product strength, reduce costs, and increase production capacity.
3. The entry of high-quality products from Japanese and Korean power battery companies into the country will not cause a fatal blow to the domestic power battery market. On the contrary, it will promote the improvement of the overall product strength of the power battery industry, thereby improving the battery life of domestic electric vehicles. mileage and service life.
Therefore, from an overall perspective, Japanese and Korean power battery companies still pose a considerable threat to the domestic power battery industry. However, after four years of development, domestic battery companies have mastered core technologies, and their product capabilities are sufficient to compete with international first-tier battery manufacturers. Therefore, there is no need to worry that Japanese and Korean power battery companies entering China will overturn the "small boat" of the domestic power battery industry.
However, it should be noted that the power battery companies in the middle and the tail may be forced out in this round of changes. It is necessary to seize the window period before Japanese and Korean power batteries enter China and cooperate with the leading car companies. Form a binding to ensure that you will not be eliminated.
Conclusion: Japanese and Korean power batteries return to China? Reappearance of the "Three Kingdoms Killing"
The return of Japanese and Korean power battery companies to China has gone from previous predictions to signs, and now it has become a reality , and with the opening up of policies, Japanese and Korean power battery companies will only return to China faster and faster. Most of the power battery factories of Panasonic, LG Chem, Samsung SDI, SKI and other companies have been established in China, and their production capacity is climbing. slope stage.
But the facts behind the phenomenon are often not so "alarmist". The arrival of Japanese and Korean power batteries is likely not to have a strong impact on the domestic power battery industry. At present, domestic companies such as CATL and BYD have the strength to compete with companies such as Panasonic and LG. In addition, some second-tier power battery companies are also seeking breakthrough opportunities through cooperation with foreign car companies.
However, objectively speaking, the entry of Japanese and Korean power battery companies into China will indeed accelerate the reshuffle of the domestic power battery industry, making the domestic power battery industry transition to a mature stage faster and achieve an improvement in product strength.
When Japanese and Korean power battery companies really start to mass-produce and sell power batteries in China, the industry is likely to reappear the situation of the "Three Kingdoms Killing" of power batteries before 2016.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.