Text/Baiyang
If Li Bin is the most miserable person in 2019, then Zeng Yuqun can probably be regarded as the most successful person in the automotive industry in 2019. Taking advantage of the state's subsidies for high-energy-density lithium batteries, CATL's NCM811 batteries rapidly increased in volume in 2019, and their performance has been booming.
With the support of performance, CATL’s stock price has also maintained rapid growth, firmly ranking as the “number one on the GEM”. As of the date of publication, Ningde Times reported 116.7 yuan per share, with a total market value of approximately 257 billion, which is 8 times the market value of NIO and almost the total market value of all new domestic car manufacturers.
Behind the comprehensive victory of the Ningde era was the defeat of BYD.
The total installed capacity of power batteries in China in 2019 was approximately 62.2GWh, of which ternary batteries accounted for 65.2% of the total installed capacity, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 22.5%, and the cumulative installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate (iron battery) batteries was 20.2%. GWh, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 9.0%.
Affected by this, CATL, which mainly focuses on lithium battery business, accounted for 58% of China's power battery installed capacity in 2019, while BYD, which specializes in iron batteries, only received 20% of this big cake. . The power battery battlefield has evolved from the past "competition between the United States and the Soviet Union for hegemony" to a pattern of one superpower and multiple powers.
In fact, BYD’s fear goes far beyond the erosion of market share. At the 2019 Frankfurt Auto Show, CATL launched CTP (cells directly integrated into battery packs) technology. The volume utilization of CTP battery packs increased by 15%-20%, the energy density increased by 10%-15%, and the cost was reduced by approximately 30% (estimate).
There are tigers in front and jackals in the rear. Hive Energy, incubated by Great Wall Motors, also announced in 2019 that it has developed cobalt-free batteries and laminated technology for square-shell batteries.
In addition, with the abolition of the power battery whitelist, Japanese and Korean companies such as LG Chem and Panasonic, which originally had deep technical accumulation in the field of lithium batteries, are also gearing up to take advantage of BYD.
It can be seen that whether it is in terms of market share or technical reserves, the "blade battery" recently revealed by Wang Chuanfu is BYD's last "resistance".
At the China Electric Vehicles Meeting of 100 recently, Wang Chuanfu revealed that the "super lithium iron phosphate battery" previously proposed by BYD will be mass-produced in March 2020 and named "Blade Battery".
This battery also uses CTP technology and has an energy density of up to 180Wh/kg. It will be installed in BYD Han, giving it an NEDC cruising range of over 600km and an ultra-long cycle life of 8 years and 1.2 million kilometers. .
What is the significance of blade batteries?
“From a safety perspective, iron batteries are a better battery in the field of passenger cars,” Wang Chuanfu said in his speech.
Indeed, compared with the lithium battery with the largest installed capacity at present, iron batteries have great advantages in safety. The auto-ignition temperature of ternary lithium batteries is 200 degrees, while the auto-ignition temperature of iron batteries It requires 800 degrees, which is much more stable than lithium batteries.
In addition, iron batteries also have the two major advantages of low cost (no precious metals) and long cycle life. If the two most troublesome problems of low energy density and poor performance at low temperatures can be solved, iron batteries are indeed a more ideal power battery than ternary lithium batteries.
Blade batteries solve these two thorny problems of iron batteries.
The blade battery has a flat design with a thickness of only 13.5mm and a length of up to 2500mm, which is more than 10 times that of ordinary lithium iron phosphate batteries.
This kind of battery core design has two advantages. On the one hand, it is thin and easy to control the temperature of the battery core. Secondly, the battery cells that stand taller than Yao Ming can be easily integrated into the battery pack to improve space utilization and increase energy density.
According to information from the State Intellectual Property Office, the blade battery patent can increase the energy density of the battery pack from 251Wh/L to 332Wh/L.
It is reported that the cost of the blade battery is expected to be 0.6 yuan/Wh, which means that with 80 kWh of electricity, the battery cost is about 48,000 yuan, which is far lower than the current price of lithium batteries.
And because blade batteries solve the shortcomings of iron batteries with low energy density and poor low-temperature performance to a certain extent, and have the inherent advantages of safety, reliability, and long cycle life, they can not only obtain national battery subsidies, but also It greatly solves the pain points of consumers buying electric vehicles (spontaneous combustion and mileage attenuation), and it sounds like a "racing boat" indeed.
Are blade batteries reliable?
At present, BYD officials have not announced the specific details of the blade battery, and the official meeting with the media will not be until a technical analysis meeting in March 2020. Therefore, although BYD officially stated that it has 300 core patents on blade batteries, people from all walks of life are still skeptical about the leadership of blade batteries.
Although the specific technical details of the blade battery are still unknown, the difficulty of implementation can be understood by understanding the technical difficulties that need to be overcome to implement the blade battery.
Currently, judging from the information officially disclosed by BYD and the design information that can be found by the Intellectual Property Office, blade batteries need to solve at least three problems: how to control the internal cell current for a 2500mm long cell. Density distribution? Is the internal ratio of battery cells optimized? Is lamination technology used? How are the cells integrated into the battery pack? How to use a more efficient BMS to ensure the performance of the battery pack? How to ensure that the battery pack has sufficient structural strength?
More refined craftsmanship, more efficient systems, more ingenious designs, and higher quality materials. At present, it is not easy for BYD to achieve the performance promoted by the blade battery, but it also has possibility of resolution.
If BYD's blade battery can achieve the performance as advertised, it will definitely be a new technology that can change the current power battery battlefield situation. Chinese battery companies are facing the Japanese and Korean battery companies that are about to launch an offensive. At that time, it also had stronger competitive strength.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.