From the development history of developed countries, it can be seen that the relationship between economic development and carbon emission in industrialized countries generally needs to go through three "inverted U" curves: carbon emission intensity, per capita carbon emission and total carbon emission. The level of economic development corresponding to the peak carbon emissions in different countries is very different, indicating that there is no certainty between economic development and carbon emissions.
From those developed countries or regions that have crossed the peak of carbon emission, it is estimated that the time between the peak of carbon emission intensity and the peak of per capita carbon emission is between 24-9 1 year, with an average of about 55 years. This shows that even with emission reduction measures, it may take a long time for developing countries to reach the inflection point of carbon emissions without external support, while it may take a long time for developing countries, including populous countries such as India and China, to reach the inflection point of global carbon emissions.
According to Kaya's identity, the growth of carbon dioxide emissions in a country (or region) mainly depends on four factors: population, per capita gdp, energy intensity (energy consumption per unit gdp) and energy structure.
Judging from the demographic factors, according to the current birth rate, natural population growth rate and infant mortality rate, the total fertility rate is far higher than the historical level of any period. Population factor is one of the important factors for the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the future. From the perspective of energy structure, although all countries are actively adopting various policies, including the global clean development mechanism (cdm) and the large-scale development of renewable energy. However, the rapid growth of energy demand determines that the energy structure dominated by fossil fuels such as coal will not change fundamentally for a long time to come. Therefore, changing the energy structure has limited effect on controlling the growth of greenhouse gas emissions. In terms of per capita income, the population base below the global poverty line is still huge, and poverty reduction and economic development are still the biggest tasks facing the world economy.
The biggest challenge to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy intensity is the scope and scale of emission reduction. In modern society, all human activities basically involve carbon emissions. Carbon emission reduction involves the transformation of the overall economy and energy policy from a macro perspective, while it involves the innovation of light bulbs, air conditioners and automobiles that people use every day and the transformation of energy consumption concepts from a micro perspective. So in theory, any aspect of human development may be a huge obstacle to greenhouse gas emission reduction.
At present, international low-carbon policies are mainly aimed at, but in different ways. On the one hand, we put pressure on climate change taxes and fees, but on the other hand, considering the different characteristics of energy-intensive and possible difficulties, we have formulated tax reduction and exemption policies for specific technologies and specific sectors, and at the same time, we have left enough room to implement the policies. For developing countries, the pressure may be less and there is more room.
Policy guidance and interest-driven, external pressure and self-demand will become the internal driving force for improving energy efficiency and actively reducing emissions. At the same time, the climate change agreement will become a supplementary measure for the instability of emission reduction forces. Through the agreement with, the rights and obligations of both parties will be mandatory, thus strengthening the power of emission reduction. In this way, according to our own situation, we can reduce the performance cost, participate in the emission trading mechanism, and strive for energy-saving subsidies and other different ways. At this time, there will be great concern and strong demand for energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, products, services and emission trading markets, and the institutional arrangements and opportunities provided will also be welcomed.
Driven by the low-carbon economy, there will be new winners and losers in the global economy. From the point of view, in addition to the strong signal issued by the policy to deal with climate change, climate change has become a highly concerned issue by the media and the public. The heated discussion in the international community has increased the weight of the issue, and the market will gradually change the valuation of low carbon, which is a crucial business strategy issue. We must deal with climate change as part of our business strategy.
There are both pressures and risks in dealing with climate change, which contains huge business opportunities. For example, in the emission trading market, those who meet the standards can sell the remaining emission rights to earn income; Innovative energy-saving equipment can occupy a larger market share by applying for patents. In the future, survival and development may be related to low carbon.