Studying the development trend of international trade is an important prerequisite for China to formulate and improve its export development strategy.
Changes in the structure of international trade
(A) the booming international trade in services
After entering the 1980s, the growth rate of service trade exceeded that of commodity trade. The international trade in services increased from $405 billion in 1982 to $960 billion in 1987, and further increased to $102 billion, with an increase of 65,438+. From 65438 to 0993, the world merchandise trade volume decreased by 2% compared with the previous year, while the international service trade volume increased by 3%. In the composition of international service trade, the proportion of transportation and tourism service trade is relatively declining, while the proportion of service trade such as communication, insurance, advertising, technology, leasing and management is increasing, especially the added value of high-tech products is increasing, and their goods are becoming more and more service-intensive.
The economy of developed countries is becoming more and more "service-oriented", accounting for about 3/4 of international service trade. The United States is the world's largest exporter of service trade, with obvious advantages in emerging service projects such as telecommunications, data processing, banking and insurance. For the sake of their own economic security, many countries in the world have implemented protectionist policies on service trade and generally built trade barriers, which poses a strong threat to the expansion of American service trade. Therefore, a few years ago, the United States made a request to GATT to solve the problem of service trade. After years of negotiations, the Uruguay Round finally reached a multilateral framework agreement on trade in services, which stipulated the general obligations and disciplines of the contracting parties, including most-favored-nation treatment, transparency, national treatment, gradual participation of developing countries, market access, dispute settlement and other provisions. The establishment of a multilateral framework for trade in services is a major breakthrough of GATT in promoting the development of international trade liberalization, which will enable contracting parties to protect the service market and conduct multilateral negotiations, strengthen personnel exchanges and information circulation, especially the gradual liberalization of trade in services such as intellectual property rights, technology transfer, data processing, consulting and advertising, and help accelerate the development of international trade.
(b) Environmentally friendly products are very popular all over the world.
From 65438 to 0992, the United Nations "Environment and Development Conference" greatly enhanced people's awareness of environmental protection around the world, and the demand for green products such as green food, green refrigerator, green air conditioner, green computer, green car, etc., which was harmless to human health increased significantly, thus promoting the transformation of industrial sectors such as electrical appliances, energy, construction, petrochemical, etc., and forming new huge industries such as pollution prevention, energy saving and information service. Environmental protection technologies in North America and Western Europe have occupied 60% of the international market. According to the survey of seven western industrial countries, the number of people boycotting non-environmental products accounts for about 79% of the total number, which shows that green goods have occupied a dominant position in the international market and the market prospect is very broad.
In order to solve the trade-related environmental problems, the Uruguay Round Trade Negotiating Committee adopted a resolution on "Trade and Environment" at its meeting in February, 2005 1993 15, and decided to draft a work plan on trade and environment, formulate rules to strengthen the interaction between trade and environmental measures, and supervise trade measures for environmental purposes and trade-related environmental measures. With the enhancement of environmental awareness in the international community, environmental protection projects have attracted much attention in international aid and investment. At present, many countries have not only promulgated strict environmental protection laws and regulations, but also formulated the principle of "giving priority to environmental protection products" in import and export trade, regardless of industrial countries or "emerging industrial countries". President Clinton of the United States clearly proposed to formulate preferential export policies for environmentally friendly products; The EU has formulated a "green investment" policy; Asean countries decided to impose low tariffs on environmentally friendly products; This will have a far-reaching impact on the development of international trade.
Reform of international trade model
(A) paperless trade is becoming increasingly popular.
Paperless trade (EDI) refers to the use of electronic data exchange instead of traditional paper documents for trade activities, and the transmission and processing of standard economic information between business partners' computers through communication networks to achieve the purpose of trading between buyers and sellers. Using EDI in international trade activities can greatly reduce or even eliminate all kinds of paper documents and bills in the traditional trade process, avoid repeated data input, simplify working procedures, not only speed up information feedback, but also get a lot of business information in time, reduce errors, reduce costs, improve efficiency and facilitate management. In the fierce market competition, it can also provide more favorable trade opportunities and conditions for enterprises.
Paperless trade began in the 1960s, but it was not until 1980s that it gradually extended to the field of international trade. Since 1992, the United States has adopted EDI for import and export trade declaration; Japan developed "Strategic Information System (SIS)" with EDI. South Korea has also established an EDI service system-Korea Trade Network (KT-NET); The China Municipal Government has established the "China Coordinating Committee for Promoting EDI Application", which is responsible for promoting the application of EDI; In 2000, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) was formulating international laws on the application of electronic data interchange, which created conditions for the universal use of electronic data interchange.
(B) the rapid development of management trade.
Specifically, managing trade refers to the administrative management and intervention of a country's foreign trade activities based on the national macroeconomic interests and domestic and foreign policy needs. For international economic organizations, it is the coordinated management of the international economy.
After entering the 1990s, due to the fierce competition in the international market, the struggle for market share in industrial countries intensified, which had a strong impact on the capitalist world economic system. Because of the correlation of economic interests, all countries concerned are aware of the necessity of strengthening international economic coordination. Developing countries have effectively promoted economic development by adjusting industrial and economic structures and implementing reform and opening-up policies. South Korea, Singapore, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province and other newly industrialized countries and regions began to compete with developed countries for international market share, and developed countries adopted many trade management measures to protect the development of traditional industries. With the further strengthening of the trend of regional grouping in the world economy, in order to protect the local market, regional economic groups are gradually removing various obstacles that hinder the free flow of goods and production factors, and at the same time rejecting foreign countries, which makes new trade protectionism rise, unfair monopoly competition and contradictions among groups intensify, and non-member countries also feel that their trade space is shrinking. In order to expand exports and protect the market, we must strengthen the unilateral management of trade and the coordinated management of trade groups; With the new development of production internationalization, multinational companies need to adopt free trade to eliminate all restrictions on foreign economic expansion, and at the same time, they need to improve their competitiveness through state intervention in foreign trade to protect certain industries from foreign monopoly organizations. Therefore, management trade will develop rapidly in the 1990s.