When Volkswagen, Toyota, GM and other international first-tier car companies all feel the weak market, their own brands can't escape the fate of falling sales. According to the report released by the Association, in June this year, the sales volume of independent brands dropped by 16%, and the market share dropped to 32%, a record low. In this context, Wei Jianjun, Chairman of Great Wall Motor, bluntly said that "Great Wall Motor's life hangs by a thread", which seems to be no exaggeration.
The high growth dividend of the auto market has been exhausted, and the demand for cars, SUVs and MPVs is sluggish. Even the sales of new energy vehicles, which have been supported by policies, have experienced a cliff-like decline (down 44% in the first half of the year). However, industry regulations and standards have not been lowered at all. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology requires that the average fuel consumption of new passenger cars be reduced to 4.0 liters/100 kilometers in 2025, while the current level in the EU is only 4. 1 liter/100 kilometers.
On the other hand, China's 6b emissions are directly in line with Europe's 6D emissions, and companies such as Zotye will fall before multinational car companies take the lead. The joint venture shares are more open, and overseas parts giants of multinational auto companies have flooded into China to seize the market, and Shanghai Tesla is one of them. Can an independent brand whose life hangs by a thread withstand the fierce impact of the market and survive in the fierce competition? We can't analyze this problem from the perspective of market, but we can talk about the status quo of independent brands from the perspective of technology and industry.
10 years ago, the quality of domestic engines depended entirely on the media. At that time, there were not many people engaged in engine research and development, and there were few supporting resources, and many scientific research projects were not rich in experience, so the engine could basically solve the problem of food and clothing, that is to say, whether it was available or not was another matter.
At that time, domestic engines were short-lived, and generally stopped production after three to five years of service. The reason was very simple and the technical planning was not good. The only exception is Chery ACTECO? E4G 16, this 1.6L engine has been in service for nearly 9 years, and the book data is very good.
20 13 is the turning point of domestic engines, and Beijing takes the lead in implementing the national five. That matter has a great influence. Many independent brands are not allowed to sell in Beijing because they do not meet the national five emissions. At that time, there was a lot of pessimism or ill feelings on the internet, probably because domestic engines could not be carried with them.
Since 20 12, manufacturers have been crazy about instilling the advanced concept of supercharged engines, because supercharged engines are really good from the data point of view, and few people know it, that is, comparing parameters. In 20 15, Chery launched ACTECO? E4T 15, that is, 15 of Arrizo 7 1.5T, at that time, public opinion was almost the failure of domestic engines, and all domestic engines could not escape the doubts of "high fuel consumption", "weak power" and "unreliable", which was not groundless.
At that time, with the help of SUV craze, independent brands went crazy on new SUVs, moved out of many ancestral machines and embarked on the old road without technical planning. The old machine is really not working due to the limitation of design level, and the signboard of domestic cars is really smashed by peers.
Why do you want to forcibly pull out Chery's 1.5T? Because the E4T 15B engine was upgraded two years later, the thermal efficiency reached 37. 1%, which caused a sensation in the industry. At that time, the most advanced 1.5T engine in China was Honda's L 15B, with a thermal efficiency of 38%. However, the former is intake manifold injection and the latter is in-cylinder direct injection, so the efficiency of direct injection itself is dominant, which is enough to beat EA2 1 1. Later, this 1.5T was added with GPF to meet the national 6b emission, and the torque did not decrease but increased.
Originally, everyone had no special affection for domestic engines, but since the joint venture changed a large number of supercharged engines, quality problems broke out one after another. In the past, everyone only knew the concept of burning engine oil, 20 17, and the engine oil increased. These problems did not appear in independent brands, such as Chery's 1.5T, which used the worst engine oil and the cheapest gasoline, and did not see serious carbon deposition or messy problems. Quality really depends on peers. Generally speaking, China's 5-emission gasoline engine has regained a little reputation for its own brand.
After the release of 6b emissions in China, independent brands fought a turnaround. Chery ACTECO? 1.6T(37. 1%), SAIC Blue Core 1.5T(37.5%), Changan Blue Whale 1.4T(38%) and GAC 2.0T(37. 1%) Gen3b, what's so embarrassing? Domestic mass production engines have surpassed most joint venture T models in power and efficiency, second only to some Japanese engines.
On 20 18 and 20 19, we had many exchanges with domestic and foreign engine R&D engineers and visited many engine factories. Generally speaking, we feel that our own brand engines will reach a new height in the next few years. For example, the thermal efficiency of many domestic supercharged engines will reach 40% next year, and the gold content of this data is greater than that of self-priming engines.
Last year, the head of SAIC Technology R&D Center revealed to us that in 2022, the thermal efficiency of SAIC's fourth-generation supercharged engine will reach 40%, and Toyota's 2.0L self-priming engine is not fragrant in an instant, while SAIC's variable compression ratio engine has already been tested on the road. Yes, it is the VC-Turbo that Nissan took 20 years to mass produce.
Really! The domestic engine has no groundbreaking technology that makes people shine, but its comprehensive performance can already be punched and kicked. In 20 18, engineers of Nissan VC-Turbo R&D revealed to us that the next generation VC-Turbo will develop into HCCI combustion technology with a target thermal efficiency of 45%. Domestic engines have entered the international first-class camp, but they are still not the top level in the world. Gasoline engines should still invite Japanese car companies to play!
In a word, compared with multinational car companies, R&D funds of independent brands are poor households. It is not easy to develop such a product with limited resources. Independent brands rarely develop large-displacement or high-performance engines because money is not in place! Now let's talk about domestic engines, not whether they work or not, but whether they want to. So Sao nian, have confidence in the engine!
In the engine section, I remind you that thermal efficiency is only an indicator. As long as the engine exhaust temperature is low, the thermal efficiency is high, but the light ratio data is meaningless. We still have to weigh power and efficiency together.
To tell the truth, the fuel car has been born for more than 0/00 years, and it is unrealistic to surpass Japanese and German in all aspects. Many people unilaterally understand the car as "three big pieces", which is probably similar to the concept that the car is two sofas and four wheels. There are many similarities between cars and mobile phones as consumer goods. Everyone belongs to the era of social division of labor and integrates global superior resources. But the automobile industry chain is too long, and one person can disassemble the mobile phone parts. There are more than 10000 parts on the car, and the wiring harness adds up to at least 1000 meters. Even if it can be disassembled, it may not be installed.
The history of electric vehicles is longer than that of fuel vehicles. Fortunately, the battery is disappointing. No matter how hard technocrats try to protect the environment, they can't solve the problem between battery life and cost. Many technologies that we think are very powerful today actually existed in the last century or 1990s, such as hub motor and power exchange technology. But 100 years, electric vehicles have been forcibly rubbed on the ground by fuel vehicles. A Japanese company that pays attention to energy consumption, after decades of efforts, has finally come up with an ideal transition product, which is now the hybrid of oil and electricity.
Arguably, oil-electricity hybrid is the most ideal technology at present, but this technology is only available in Japan. If all parts of the world encourage the development of oil-electricity hybrid, it is to feed the whole village and starve people! Although the European Union and China have introduced stricter emission regulations, they have not given the green light to hybrid vehicles. Theoretically, only hybrid vehicles or diesel vehicles can reach the average fuel consumption target of 4.0-4. 1 liter, but diesel vehicles have broken another leg, so all countries have turned their attention to electric vehicles, and hybrid vehicles are ruthlessly excluded.
After the invention of lithium-ion battery, the energy density of the battery has been greatly improved, which has created a historical opportunity for the development of electric vehicles. The right time, the right place and the right people have made electric cars the hope of the whole village! I have a very deep impression. 15 Audi A8 has a hybrid car. The biggest feature of this car is its high fuel consumption, and at the same time it can drive a certain distance with a pure electric car. However, the price of its battery pack is as high as 65438+ 1 100 million, and no one cares.
However, after the listing of BMW 530Le, plug-in hybrid is actually in short supply, and Mercedes-Benz and Audi can only wait and see! There is nothing against the BMW plug-in hybrid, just because the domestic battery has been replaced. Theoretically, multinational auto companies will give priority to overseas suppliers. Why does BMW run in reverse? Because only domestic batteries are subsidized.
There is no so-called curve overtaking in new energy sources. Because there is no market for electric vehicles, no enterprise is willing to inject capital and technology into them indefinitely. At this time, our national policy has played a role. On the one hand, it gives a green light to new energy through licensing restrictions. On the other hand, through financial subsidies and white list protection, the new energy industry chain has been supported.
China is the largest automobile producer and seller in the world. The policy is to reserve 20% of the market for new energy vehicles, and at the same time, continuously replenish capital for upstream and downstream enterprises. With market capital, technology will naturally come. Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially cancelled the white list of power batteries. At this time, the installed battery capacity of contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Limited ranks first in the world, and BYD ranks third. Among the top 10 suppliers of new energy vehicles in the world, six are from China. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi and Volkswagen sell electric cars to China, and almost all the core components of batteries are made in China.
In fact, in terms of battery energy density, domestic power batteries are comparable to Tesla. What is the model? 3 has an energy density of 160Wh/kg, and Weilai ES6 equipped with contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. 8 1 1 battery has an energy density of 170Wh/kg. In the future, there will be 180Wh/kg batteries, although Shanghai Tesla models. Sales have soared. Some people say that domestic new energy vehicles will be wiped out, but if you are a rational and pragmatic consumer, I'm afraid you won't agree with the views of the scientific and technological media.
Of course, the battery industry is not as simple as we thought. We didn't invent lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary, so there must be intellectual property problems. Academician Chen Liquan of China Academy of Engineering told a story before. Belgian Minmetals Company once came to China to collect the intellectual property fees of lithium-ion cathode materials, but China had related patents, so the money was confiscated. In addition, we have broken the original foreign patent monopoly on lithium iron phosphate materials, and domestic enterprises can use lithium iron phosphate batteries in large quantities.
It should be said that in the field of power batteries, lithium ternary of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. plays an offensive role, while lithium ferrous phosphate of BYD plays a defensive role. As long as electric vehicles continue to pursue longer cruising range, lithium ternary is the future development direction. This year, BYD released the unique layout of Korean blade battery, which made up for the defect of low energy density in lithium ferrous phosphate. The energy density of Han's battery pack is 140Wh/kg, although it is slightly lower than that of Model? 3, but the advantages of cost, safety and low temperature performance are obvious.
At first, we thought that the performance of domestic motors was not so good. As a result, once we went to ZF's booth, there was a huge motor on it. It looks strange. The engineer said it was an induction motor. In fact, I don't know much about motors, so I asked weakly what is the difference between induction motors and permanent magnet motors. Engineers at ZF said that ours does not contain rare earths. After a chat, I curiously asked ZF engineers, what are the famous motor companies in China? They are outspoken and diligent.
Ordinary peers will implicitly praise each other. By chance, I saw the founder of precision motor introduce the motor technology at an industry conference, among which the motor power density is worthy of attention. The current power density of precision motors is 4.0-4.5KW/kg, which has surpassed the products of top suppliers in many industries. At present, the power density of two domestic medium-sized electric vehicles with the highest attention in China is only 2.8KW/kg, and the domestic motor is actually the top level in the industry.
Electric vehicles, like fuel vehicles, need electronic components to control power, but any equipment involving electricity consumption will involve power consumption. If the energy consumption of electrical components is too large, the cruising range will be reduced. In order to reduce power consumption, the voltage is usually increased in industry, so the electronic control components need to have the characteristics of high voltage resistance and low energy consumption.
IGBT is a familiar component for electrical engineers, but at present, most electric vehicles at home and abroad use imported IGBT. BYD not only realized the localization of IGBT, but also took the lead in using more efficient silicon carbide (SIC) devices in this new car. There are only BYD Korea and Tesla models in China. With this technology.
Among the three core components of electronic control, motor and battery, two are at the leading level in China, but no domestic fuel vehicle supplier can compete with the international first-line giants. Although the electric cars of overseas car companies started first, there was no reward for electric cars, so everyone fished for three days and dried the net for two days. In China, through the guidance of policies and capital, they directly put new energy enterprises on the bus and put them down at the first destination, so there is no substitute for new energy vehicles.
Chery Holdings has 1 1 parts subsidiaries, Great Wall Motor has three parts subsidiaries, and BYD also has several parts subsidiaries such as batteries, semiconductors and molds. These subsidiaries all have the same thing, that is, self-production and self-marketing. Some self-produced parts of individual enterprises have entered the purchasing list of peers, but the loading capacity is not much.
You have screws and I have nuts but don't buy each other, which is a common phenomenon of independent brands. This phenomenon makes it difficult for suppliers supported by independent brands to become bigger and stronger. There are countless domestic auto parts suppliers, but most of them are engaged in low value-added accessories such as glass and wheels. The only exception is Huayu Automobile (acquisition of yanfeng interior), and yanfeng can become the leader in the field of automotive interior, mainly through the acquisition of johnson controls interior business.
In order to break the situation of self-production and self-sale, Chery first took the initiative, such as selling Chery Seiki to Wan Liyang, and finally Wan Liyang opened the CVT market. Another case is Bethel, in which Chery holds shares. After several equity transfers, Chery's shareholding ratio gradually decreased, and its products also appeared on joint venture models. Recently, we have seen that many independent brands want to split their subsidiaries. On the one hand, the investment of R&D is very expensive, on the other hand, wholly-owned subsidiaries are difficult for banks to accept. As far as resource integration is concerned, independent brands are not as good as Korean cars.
Another weakness of domestic cars is the lack of high-end products. Although the National Sixth Congress has given birth to a number of excellent domestic engines, domestic suppliers can't handle many better engine parts, even humble parts such as pistons and valves. The core components of the engine, such as ECU and EMS (not China Post), are all overseas brands. There are still many limitations in the peak range of the engine.
This problem is also very prominent in the gearbox. Although many independent brands develop and produce gearboxes by themselves, if the localization rate of parts is to be taken out separately, the proportion is actually very low. Of course, many overseas car companies don't build gearboxes, and even if they do, they buy parts from some suppliers, so it is not necessarily correct to deliberately emphasize the localization rate.
Domestic automobile brand technology has made rapid progress, partly because overseas suppliers have entered the China market, making domestic supporting facilities perfect. In the field of automobiles, the weakest part of domestic cars is the chassis. Whether it is a gasoline car or an electric car, the driving, steering, braking and transmission systems in the chassis are indispensable, but these things are related to safety. Without certain experience and word-of-mouth accumulation, it is difficult to open the market. Part of the credit for the progress of domestic cars comes from policy guidance, and only when the waves wash sand can we see gold. Without the renewal and tightening of industrial policies, the automobile industry is afraid that bad money will drive out good money. As far as today's situation is concerned, it is difficult for overseas car companies to curb their own brands.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.