How will the earth go in the future? This topic is too sci-fi for most people, but from Tesla's own point of view, it is supported by some data, such as investing 10 trillion US dollars in manufacturing capital, realizing 240TWh energy storage, 30TW green power generation, and realizing 10% world economy with less than 0.2% land area.
The $65,438+00 trillion is beyond my understanding of money, but I know that Tesla's next-generation car will increase the operator density by 44%, reduce the assembly cost by 50%, improve the space-time efficiency by 30%, and the cost of super charging hardware and installation is 20% to 70% lower than the industry average. On this basis, Musk plans to build 10~ 12 Tesla super factories by 2030, producing 20 million new cars every year.
As early as 2006, Musk also announced Tesla's four major plans: to build a sports car; Use this money to develop a car that people can afford; Then use the money to develop cheaper cars; Provide sustainable energy while implementing the above three steps. From the perspective of Tesla Model 3, although this plan has not been fully realized, the price that can be continuously lowered has revealed that Tesla's four plans are constantly falling. If the production cost of the next generation is reduced by 50%, then we can take a step closer to this goal.
If you know the history of the automobile industry, you will find that Tesla's goals and implementation are almost the same as those of Ford and Volkswagen: Ford invented the assembly line to continuously reduce the cost of automobile manufacturing, while Volkswagen wanted to build a car that everyone could afford, so for a long time, Ford and Volkswagen almost dominated the global low-end civil automobile market.
At the beginning of the car's birth, almost all car companies were developing cars exclusively for the rich, such as Mercedes-Benz, Skoda (you read it correctly), Rolls-Royce, Bentley and too many disappearing car brands, which seized the low-end market, such as Volkswagen, Ford, Toyota, Honda and Hyundai, and eventually became the overlord of the automobile industry. To use our old saying, those who win the hearts of the people win the world.
What Tesla is doing now is to penetrate from high-end models to low-end models by reducing costs, thus taking the lead in the mainstream consumer market. However, history is always surprisingly similar. On the other hand, the number of 200,000-class new energy vehicles has far exceeded that of 654.38+ 10,000-class new energy vehicles. Without the support of complete R&D and manufacturing technology system, it is the common sense of most new energy vehicle companies to build high-end brands rashly. I think this is problematic.
As far as the actual consumption capacity of China people is concerned, it is very rare to buy a car of more than 200,000, and it is even rarer to really buy a car of more than 300,000. For example, in a big market with an annual sales volume of more than 20 million vehicles, the sales volume of BMW 3 Series, Audi A4L and mercedes benz c Class accounts for less than 2.5%, which is enough to explain the current situation of domestic automobile consumption. Instead of clinging to high-end brands, we should focus on the investment in mainstream markets below 200,000. I think this is the way out for independent new energy automobile enterprises.
The biggest opportunity brought by the new energy era to domestic car companies is that there is no technical barrier as heavy as that of the fuel car era, and it can change from struggling to striding forward. If you only focus on the immediate market opportunities, you will export expensive "patchwork cars" and give up your basic technology. Without a complete and mature technical system, they may have to follow the footsteps of fuel vehicles in the future.
This is by no means alarmist, because many domestic new energy vehicle companies with superficial scenery do not have their own technologies and factories, and most of their software and hardware come from overseas suppliers. Think about it, this is to help overseas auto suppliers cultivate their own technology with their own markets again. In the long run, the scene of paying patent fees for a gear will be staged again.
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