1) list overview: In 20 19, Shenzhen-Beishangguang ranked in the top four in the medium and long-term development potential list, and Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Tianjin and Hangzhou ranked in the top ten in second-tier cities; Thirty-two cities in the eastern region have entered the top 50, especially in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions. More than 80% cities in Northeast China are behind 200. With 13% of the country's land, the top 100 cities have gathered 50% of the population and created 73% of GDP, accounting for 62% of the national commercial housing sales.
2) Population status: the population continues to gather in big cities, and the core cities in the central and western regions rise. From a regional perspective, the current population has returned to the central and western provinces such as Anhui, Sichuan, Guangxi, Henan and other eastern provinces such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, and the population growth in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and other places is sluggish or even negative. From the perspective of branch cities, the population continues to flow into first-and second-tier cities, the inflow and outflow of third-tier cities are basically balanced, and the outflow of fourth-tier cities continues. From the perspective of key cities, the permanent population of Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hangzhou has increased substantially, and the core cities in the central and western regions such as Xi 'an, Chengdu and Changzhou have risen day by day, while the population growth of eastern cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Suzhou and Wuxi has slowed down.
3) Population potential: people follow the industry, and the foundation and potential of the first-and second-tier industries are outstanding. First-and second-tier cities have created 46.5% GDP with a population of 25.5%, and the population agglomeration potential is huge. In terms of industrial innovation, the head effect of first-and second-tier cities is remarkable. The proportion of listed companies and the total number of invention patents account for about 70% and 75% respectively, among which Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen occupy absolute heights, and cities such as Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Nanjing and Chengdu rank first. In terms of transportation location, first-and second-tier cities occupy the position of transportation hub, and the number of high-speed rail trips is as high as 740 and 149 respectively. The eastern region benefited from physical geography and took the lead in developing strategic transportation infrastructure. In terms of public resources, first-and second-tier cities have high-quality education and medical resources, and urban rail transit improves urban operation efficiency.
4) Purchasing power: First-and second-tier cities have higher absolute purchasing power and lower relative purchasing power. In absolute terms, the per capita savings deposits and disposable income in first-tier cities are as high as 1.654, 38+0.5 and 66,000 yuan respectively, much higher than those in other cities. From the relative level, the ratio of house price to income in first-tier, second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities is 20.8, 10.6, 8.4 and 6.0 years respectively. However, in first-tier cities, housing prices are not determined by middle-income groups, but by high-income groups.
5) Housing supply: the housing supply in first-and second-tier cities is tight, and the financial dependence of second-and third-tier land is high. The housing supply in first-and second-tier cities is tight, and the household ratio is 0.97 and 1.02 respectively. There is excess risk in Northeast China, and the ratio of households exceeds 1. 1. The eastern and central regions are highly dependent on land finance, accounting for 57% and 52% respectively. Second-and third-tier cities are higher, accounting for 64% and 50% respectively.
Market scenario: When will the top 100 cities in 20 19 have the best layout?
Overview of 1) list: Based on fundamental analysis and market conditions, 100 cities with the most development potential are divided into three grades, among which Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Guangzhou and other 15 cities are Grade I, 25 cities such as Chengdu and Wuhan are Grade II, and 60 cities such as Lanzhou and Xuzhou are Grade III.
2) Volume and price trend: The demand of some third-and fourth-tier cities is obviously overdrawn, and the transaction volume of some first-and second-tier cities is picking up, and the market is expected to stabilize. Some first-and second-tier cities and surrounding areas that have undergone obvious adjustment will gradually stabilize, such as insufficient supply or certain upward pressure; Some third-and fourth-tier cities that were stimulated by the monetization of shed reform in the early stage and lacked fundamental support have adjustment risks.
3) destocking: the overall inventory risk in western regions and fourth-tier cities is relatively high. From the perspective of saleable inventory, the inventory de-inventory cycle of first-tier, second-tier, third-and fourth-tier sample cities is 20 1 1.7, 10.5,1.4 months respectively, and that of third-and fourth-tier cities is 2065438. From the perspective of generalized inventory, the 20 17-year land digestion cycle in western China and fourth-tier cities is 2.5 years and 2. 1 year respectively.
4) Cost of land acquisition: In 2065438+2008, the ratio of land price to house price decreased as a whole, but it was still high in a few cities. From 2065438 to March 2009, the premium rates of residential land transactions in first-,second-,third-and fourth-tier cities were 4.2%, 2 1.6% and 2 1.4% respectively, among which second-tier cities rose for four consecutive months and third-and fourth-tier cities rose for five consecutive months. In 20 18, the ratio of land price to house price in first-tier, second-tier, third-tier and fourth-tier cities was 29%, 25%, 19% and 13% respectively, except that the ratio of first-tier cities increased slightly by 1 percentage point compared with 20 17.
Embrace urban agglomerations and grasp the general trend. Urban agglomeration in metropolitan area, led by central cities, has higher productivity and saves land and energy. It is the main platform to support the high-quality development of China's economy, and it is also the focus of China's current and future development. Before the development potential of 20 19 years 100 cities, 96 cities are located in 19 metropolitan area, and 54 cities are located in 24 metropolitan areas. From the perspective of per capita production efficiency, the per capita GDP created by scale shows a decreasing phenomenon from large to small; /kloc-cities with more than 0/00000 people create per capita GDP of140000 yuan, which is 2 1 times that of cities with 0-3 million people and about 5 times that of cities with less than 200000 people. At the level of urban agglomeration, the core of 19 urban agglomeration lies in five major urban agglomerations: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing. It is estimated that by 2030, about 80% of China's 200 million new urban population will be located in 19 urban agglomeration, of which about 60% will be located in seven urban agglomerations, including the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu-Chongqing, the Central Plains and Shandong Peninsula. At the level of metropolitan area, 24 metropolitan areas with a population of100000 have created about 54% GDP with 6.7% land and 33% population, among which Shanghai, Beijing, Shenwanhui and Guangfozhao have obvious development potential. Outside the metropolitan area, there are two types of third-and fourth-tier cities worthy of attention: one is the third-and fourth-tier cities with outstanding economic strength in the eastern coastal areas, and the other is the inland local central cities with a large population in their jurisdictions or hinterland, mostly located in urban agglomerations.
Implementing a real long-term real estate mechanism will help the market develop steadily and healthily, which is also the common expectation of people, government, enterprises and other parties. The key to the long-term mechanism lies in the linkage between people and land, financial stability and the policy of the city. For cities with high housing prices caused by the continuous inflow of population and insufficient land supply, increase land supply; For cities with high inventory caused by continuous outflow of population and excessive land supply, reduce land supply; The balance between supply and demand is achieved through the linkage between people and land, which solves the problems of high housing prices in the first and second lines and high inventory in the third and fourth lines caused by the separation of people and land and the mismatch between supply and demand. From the experience of the United States, Britain, German, Japanese, China, Hongkong and Singapore, we can see that excessive financial leverage in real estate is the source of risk, and monetary and financial stability is the fundamental solution. To avoid excessive currency, excessive leverage and excessive debts of residents, we should support the just-needed and improved demand and curb speculative demand through various means such as money, finance, taxation and land.