Under this tone, the hydrogen energy boom blown by 202 1 will continue until 2022. But do you know that by 20021year, there will be only over 9,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on the road in China (CCTV financial data)?
We ordinary people can hardly see or touch hydrogen-powered cars.
Is the hydrogen energy car really the most ideal car in the world?
When can we see this "end of new energy vehicles"?
The most important reason why hydrogen energy vehicles are regarded as "the end of the car" is that energy is renewable, rich in sources, high in mass density and free from carbon emissions.
Hydrogen energy vehicles are divided into two development routes: hydrogen fuel cell and hydrogen fuel engine. Because the former has more obvious advantages in environmental protection, comfort and power, it has become the technical solution chosen by most car companies.
No matter which technical route, cars can completely avoid carbon emissions. But whether it is really environmentally friendly depends on the way of producing hydrogen from the source.
Hydrogen production can generally be divided into three ways:
Green hydrogen: Hydrogen is generated by electrolyzing water after using renewable energy such as light, wind and water, but the technology needs to be improved and the cost is high;
Blue hydrogen: produced by burning fossil energy such as coal, oil and natural gas. And the generated carbon dioxide is centrally treated to prepare such electric energy;
Grey hydrogen: ammonia is made from fossil energy and finally decomposed into hydrogen, with mature technology and low cost.
Comparison of three hydrogen production technologies In short, only green hydrogen is truly low-carbon and environmentally friendly. What is the situation in China now?
According to the report of Wanlian Securities Research Institute in 2020, in the hydrogen energy structure of China, the proportion of hydrogen production from coal is 62%, that from natural gas is 19%, and that from renewable energy is only 1%.
So, is a hydrogen-powered car really an ideal on earth? I can only say yes, but not completely. Only when the green hydrogen technology is mature can the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle be completely decarbonized and environmentally friendly.
According to the data of the national regulatory platform in 2020, 99.95% of the 6,002 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China at that time were commercial vehicles, namely logistics vehicles, buses and road buses.
Why are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles now used in commercial vehicles? There are two main reasons.
First, there are too few hydrogen refueling stations.
At present, the construction of a hydrogen refueling station needs at least10 million yuan, and the annual operating cost is as high as 2 million yuan. Hydrogen stations all over the country are losing money, with long payback period and slow growth in the number of hydrogen stations.
However, passenger cars are widely distributed and widely used, so it is impossible to load them with a few hydrogen refueling stations at present.
On the contrary, the commercial vehicle line is relatively fixed, and the hydrogen refueling station as a supporting service only needs to be built around the line, which does not require high number of hydrogen refueling stations.
Second, the cost is too high and the car is too expensive.
In 2020, SAIC· Chase introduced a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle called EUNIQ 7. The subsidized price is about 298,000-399,800 yuan, which is not very expensive, but it is the price after deducting the national and local subsidies of 400,000 yuan.
The first-generation and second-generation Toyota Mirai with more mature technology sold for about 450,000 yuan before subsidies. Take the first generation as an example, the price is 7.2 million yen (about 460,000 yuan), and the government subsidizes 3 million yen (about 200,000 yuan). Plus taxes and other expenses, the subsidized price is around 300,000.
Due to the inconvenience of hydrogenation, Mirai is popular in Japan and the United States. According to statistics, from 20 15 to the end of 2020, Toyota only sold 6,487 Mirai cars in the United States.
On the other hand, to let hydrogen enter our lives, we must first meet two preconditions:
First, hydrogenation is as convenient and economical as refueling, and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations should be synchronized with the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles.
Second, the price is similar to that of hybrid and pure electric vehicles.
Judging from China's heavy bet on hydrogen energy, this node is not too far away from us. According to "Technology Roadmap 2.0 for Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicles" issued by Automotive Engineering Society in 2020, it shows that:
By 2025, the number of hydrogen-fueled vehicles is planned to reach about 6.5438+million, and the number of hydrogen refueling stations will reach more than 6.5438+million.
By 2035, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will reach 6.5438+0 million.
By then, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be no stranger to us. With the increase of national support, more and more hydrogen refueling stations will emerge one after another.
If China's hydrogen-powered cars have just started, then Japan is already making rapid progress.
In May, 20021,Akio Toyoda drove a special Corolla at the speed of 140 miles per hour in the 24-hour endurance race at Fuji International Circuit.
Akio Toyoda finally won the 49th place, but his heart was as excited as being beaten with chicken blood. Its appearance and every kilometer it runs are important footnotes in Toyota's history.
Because this Corolla is special, because it is equipped with a hydrogen fuel engine, which is different from the familiar fuel cell vehicle Mirai. The former burns compressed hydrogen in a piston engine, which is similar to the traditional oil tanker burning engine oil.
If this technology is commercialized, it may be another answer given by Toyota to global carbon neutrality.
Last year, Toyota also formed a decarbonization brotherhood alliance with Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Yamaha, Subaru and Mazda, and usually studied clean fuels represented by hydrogen together, including four-wheeled vehicles and two-wheeled motorcycles.
In fact, in Japan, the use of hydrogen energy is not only in the transportation fields such as automobiles, motorcycles, ships and railways.
It can also be used in the community. The athletes' village of Tokyo Olympic Games is the first hydrogen energy community in the world, and all its commercial facilities, buses, street lamps and other equipment are powered by hydrogen energy.
It can also be used in hotels. Jin Dong Tokyo Hotel in Kawasaki, Japan is the first hotel in the world to produce hydrogen energy from waste, that is, using waste plastics and kitchen waste to produce hydrogen, which is finally converted into electric energy and heat energy. ...
No country in the world is more keen on hydrogen energy than Japan. As early as 20 17, the Japanese government released the basic hydrogen strategy, and invested hundreds of billions of yen in the past 30 years, almost gambling on the luck of the people.
Toyota Mirai in Japanese streets (Source: BBC) South Korea, just across the sea, is also crazy about the hydrogen economy.
South Korea plans to produce 6.2 million hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles by 2040 and build 1200 hydrogen refueling stations nationwide. In addition, it will support the power supply of hydrogen energy in industry and home, and develop ships, trains and construction machinery driven by hydrogen energy.
One of the important reasons why Japan and South Korea have a heavy position in hydrogen energy is the lack of local resources and heavy dependence on oil imports. Hydrogen energy, especially green hydrogen, is a clean and renewable energy. Hydrogen production can be self-sufficient and will naturally become the new favorite of Japan, South Korea and even the world.
Whether it is the development of hydrogen energy vehicles or pure electric vehicles, there are actually military preparations for energy between big countries.
Looking back/kloc-in the second half of the 9th century, the United States established a "crude oil system" relying on crude oil to support the rise of great powers;
First of all, in terms of production, Rockefeller founded Standard Oil Company, which improved the refining efficiency by improving equipment and efficient smelting technology, and once controlled 85% of the global market;
Furthermore, at the transportation end, Rockefeller built a huge oil pipeline, which greatly reduced the cost of oil;
Finally, on the consumer side, Henry Ford produced Model T cars on the assembly line, which made cars civilian and increased the digestion of oil.
Nowadays, oil resources are in an emergency, and the two major problems of global warming are getting worse. Developing new energy will inevitably become a top priority for all countries, and it is necessary to establish their own "new energy system".
In the field of hydrogen energy, which is "the ideal energy in 2 1 century", it is necessary to establish low-cost and high-efficiency green hydrogen at the production end and a complete hydrogen storage, transportation and hydrogenation system at the transportation end, so that car companies can produce more mature and cheaper hydrogen-powered cars at the production end.
This military preparation for hydrogen energy will undoubtedly diffuse thick smoke in the closed loop of this golden triangle.