However, under the demand of more than 300 million smart phones, it is impossible for mobile phone manufacturers to explain to consumers without innovation.
In the autumn of 20021,smartphone manufacturers invariably chose folding screen phones as innovation points.
1 September, Samsung released the folding screen mobile phone Galaxy Z Fold3.
65438+February 15, OPPO released its first folding screen mobile phone oppo find n.
12 On February 23rd, Huawei released the first vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 Pocket.
Glory's new folding screen Magic V will also be officially released in the near future.
Xiaomi's first folding screen mobile phone MIX FOLD was released on March 30. Although the new product of vivo folding screen has not been released, it has applied for many patents related to folding screen.
From the above information, the top five mobile phone manufacturers in China's smart phone industry, except Apple, have launched or are ready to launch new folding screen products, and folding screen mobile phones seem to be the "standard" for mobile phone manufacturers. However, despite the fanaticism of mobile phone manufacturers, the performance of the market fluctuates greatly.
According to IDC data, in 2020, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones will be about 65.438+0.947 million units, while the global shipment of smart phones will reach 65.438+0.292 billion units, accounting for only 0. 15%. It is hard to say how excellent a folding screen mobile phone with such a low market share is, and this phenomenon will be improved in Q3 of 2026.5438+0. According to the report released by DSCC, the global shipment of folding screen mobile phones in the third quarter of 2002/KLOC-0 was 2.6 million units, an increase of 2 15% from the previous quarter.
It has been more than two years since the world's first folding screen mobile phone was launched, and consumers are no strangers to folding screen mobile phones. Recently, the topic of "folding screen mobile phone" has been repeatedly pushed to the hot search list of social networks, and folding screen mobile phones seem to have become popular.
What is missing from the folding screen?
"Life and death are bleak, and if you don't accept it, you will have it." Lei Jun shouted directly to his friends at the launch conference of the new red rice Note 7 machine at 20 19 1 1. 202 1 This year, Lei Jun, Zhao Ming and other big bosses reduced their competition in the "war of words", and mobile phone manufacturers no longer fought fiercely with their friends, which made the mobile phone circle less lively.
Huawei, Glory, Xiaomi, OPPO, Samsung and other mobile phone manufacturers have successively launched folding screen mobile phones, which actually played an educational role in the market and made more consumers have an impression on folding screen mobile phones, paving the way for the outbreak of folding screen mobile phones in the future. However, in the face of the global smart phone market of more than 65.438+0.2 billion, there is still a long way to go for the popularization of folding screen mobile phones. What is missing?
(1) lower price. The attitude of the market towards new technologies is closely related to the price, such as 5G mobile phones. China Mobile had predicted that the price of the first batch of 5G mobile phones would exceed 8000 yuan. By 20 19, when a large number of 5G mobile phones went on the market, the price of mobile phones was still on the high side, reaching nearly 5000 yuan at one time, which was similar to that of iPhone. In 20 19, the domestic shipments of 5G mobile phones were only137.69 million.
By 202 1, the price of 5G mobile phones plummeted. According to the data of ICT Institute, the average selling price of 5G mobile phones dropped from 3733 yuan in June to 285 1 yuan in September. 202 1, 1, 1 1, 5G mobile phone shipments reached 239 million units, up 65.3% year-on-year, accounting for 75.3% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.
Obviously, consumers are unwilling to pay for the high premium of new technology. If they want to promote it on a large scale, they must have a price that is close to the people. At present, the folding screen mobile phone is still high. OPPO Find N starts at 7699 yuan, Huawei P50 Pocket starts at 8988 yuan, Xiaomi MIX FOLD starts at 9999 yuan, and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip3 starts at 7599 yuan.
(2) the addition of apples. The new phenomenon in the smart phone industry in recent years is that Apple is no longer the leader of new technologies in the mobile phone industry, such as curved screen, rear four-camera+front double-camera, high-refresh screen, 5G and so on. Apple seems to have become conservative. But it is undeniable that Apple has unparalleled influence in the smart phone industry. If Apple also uses this new technology, it means that this technology is not "pseudo-innovation". For example, the pop-up camera design made by mobile phone manufacturers has been gradually abandoned by mobile phone manufacturers.
In the puzzle of folding screen mobile phone, there are still apples missing. If Apple enters the folding screen mobile phone market, more and more users will choose to buy folding screens. MacRumors once reported that Apple first launched the mass-produced folding screen iPhone model in 2023, but the probability is higher in 2024. The rendering of Apple's first folding mobile phone, iPhone Flip, is also circulated on the Internet.
On the folding screen mobile phone, we see the shadow of face recognition mobile phone and 5G mobile phone. Relying on a large number of manufacturers to flock is only the first step. The price close to the people and Apple's admission will make such a mobile phone reach a climax.
Don't do it
How many people buy nearly 8000 yuan mobile phones? Mobile phone manufacturers are not at a loss. In fact, even Apple dare not be too radical in the price of mobile phones. Apple launched the iPhone X in 20 17, and the starting price was as high as 8388 yuan. Fortunately, with the support of Face ID, this model sold well, but by the next generation of models, Apple's high-priced strategy was invalid. This year, the starting price of the new iPhone 13 series is only 5 199 yuan, which is the lowest for Apple in recent years.
Pricing is an art, and the mobile phone sales of nearly 8,000 yuan are doomed not to be too high, but why do mobile phone manufacturers want to launch folding screen mobile phones when they know this situation clearly? Claire Kuo's internet circle believes that there are two main factors:
First, impact the high-end market. Huawei, Xiaomi, vivo and OPPO obviously don't want to completely lose the high-end market to Apple. With the demand of nearly 300 million smart phones in China, many users will want to buy the top flagship machine of Huami OV. What can they use to represent the top flagship machine? Folding screen mobile phone is a good solution. Folding screen mobile phones can prove the strength of mobile phone manufacturers in the high-end market, so it is necessary for mobile phone manufacturers to make folding screen mobile phones.
If 5000 yuan is a threshold, then 8000 yuan is a threshold, and mobile phone manufacturers can use this to hit the high-end market. Mobile phone manufacturers only have the opportunity to enjoy the dividend of brand premium if they are high-end.
Even Xiaomi is tearing off the label of "cost performance" and going to the high end. A few days ago, Lei Jun said on social networks that "Xiaomi's high-end mobile phone officially started to benchmark Apple and learn from Apple". Although this sentence is about Xiaomi 12, it also reflects Xiaomi's determination to go high-end. Xiaomi Group's 202 1 third quarter financial report shows that the average selling price (ASP) of Xiaomi smartphones is 1090.5 yuan/set. Compared with apples, it's far from it.
Second, use the folding screen mobile phone to enhance the influence of the brand. No matter Xiaomi, vivo or OPPO, they don't want the outside world to regard it as an "assembly factory", that is, to assemble the screen, processor, battery and casing together, which will make the mobile phone manufacturers have no technical content. In fact, smart phones involve many technologies and are not as simple as the outside world thinks.
In recent years, mobile phone manufacturers have been flaunting their technical strength, such as the number of patents and the number of specific processes, hoping to let the outside world see their technical side. Folding screen is a great test for the technical strength of mobile phone manufacturers.
The introduction of folding screen mobile phones has indirectly enhanced the brand influence of mobile phone manufacturers, so that even among the top five mobile phone manufacturers, mobile phone manufacturers can be in an invincible position.
Third, through the folding screen mobile phone, verify the development trend of the next generation mobile phone. When Liu Haiping of Apple iPhone X was first listed, it was once considered as "ugly out of the sky". However, after the popularity of Face ID, other mobile phone manufacturers followed the Liu Haiping design of iPhone X. Although it gradually became a design form such as digging screen and dripping screen, Liu Haiping did prove the fashion trend at that time.
No one can predict the future, like mobile phone manufacturers such as Apple. Facing the reality, mobile phone manufacturers can only verify the future trend step by step through the market. Folding screen mobile phone is one of the verification methods. As for whether the folding screen mobile phone will eventually catch fire, the premise is that it must be built on this track. If the product is not launched, in case the folding screen mobile phone is on fire in the future, it will start later than the friends.
With the maturity of the upstream and downstream supply chain of smart phones, the innovation of mobile phone manufacturers has long been out of their own hands. In the final analysis, it depends on the current market and the technological upgrading of supply chain manufacturers and component manufacturers. The smart phone industry may have entered the era of "slow" innovation.