On the eve of the handover of presidential power between Trump and Biden, violence broke out in the highest legislative body of the United States. With Trump refusing to recognize the results of the presidential election, his supporters directly occupied offices on Capitol Hill.
Supporters of President Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol, marking the first time the U.S. Capitol was occupied 207 years after the British burned Washington, D.C., in 1814 during the United States' Second War of Independence.
The riots on Capitol Hill caused an uproar in the world at that time. Not only did various countries condemn it, but the American media also described the incident as a riot. However, the official U.S. investigation continues. Only now has the U.S. House of Representatives Special Investigative Committee officially characterized it as an attempted coup for the first time.
Since it is an "attempted coup", its nature has changed and it violates the criminal law of the United States. It is almost the same nature as the "attempted coup" that broke out in Kazakhstan. At that time, Kazakhstan arrested many instigators and those behind the scenes. So as the initiator and instigator of the "Capitol Hill Riots", will Trump pay the price? Will the United States punish Trump for this?
In this regard, I can only say that the possibility of convicting Trump in the United States is very low.
First of all, there is no precedent for an outgoing president being sentenced in the United States. This is related to the unity of the two parties; in American history, in addition to the 45th President Trump, three other presidents have been impeached, namely The 17th President Andrew Johnson, the 37th President Nixon and the 42nd President Clinton. None of them were punished by impeachment.
In particular, President Nixon, who was involved in the Watergate scandal, was caught red-handed by members of his presidential campaign team, who sneaked into his opponent's Democratic Party headquarters to eavesdrop and film. It stands to reason that after the Democratic Party came to power, it could prosecute Nixon on this matter to warn the Communist Party and the party of its illegal behavior. However, in fact, except for resigning midway, President Nixon was not affected in any way and was still regarded as the outgoing president.
The purpose of the Democratic Party is to maintain the reputation of the so-called "beacon of liberal democracy" in the United States and to take care of the balanced interests of the Democratic Party and the party. Trump encourages his supporters to rally in Washington with impunity, which is of the same nature. Because as long as a precedent is set for punishing the president, whether he is in office or out of office, it will inevitably lead to a vicious cycle. The American version of the "Cheong Wa Dae Curse" may be staged, which is not good for American governance, nor is it good for American image and leadership. Demonstration of power in the world.
Secondly: Trump’s influence still exists, and the supporters behind him are talismans; although Trump handed over power to President Biden, he has not withdrawn from the political stage. Compared with presidents such as Obama, Ford, Clinton, and George W. Bush who all returned to "pastoral" life after leaving office, Trump still portrays himself as a popular and vocal outgoing president.
The fundamental driving force behind Trump’s continued activity is the group of supporters behind him. Don’t forget, in the election between Trump and Biden, although Biden received a record high vote share, Trump was not bad. His vote share was higher than Obama’s previous record, becoming the first vote winner in American history. The presidential candidate with the second highest rate, this shows that a considerable number of people in the United States still trust Trump, especially the far-right forces who are die-hard supporters of Trump.
Once the United States finds Trump guilty, it is not ruled out that his supporters will become angry, rise up and cause trouble, and stage a second "Occupy Capitol Hill" riot; at this time, although the Biden administration can suppress leaders, Can the United States survive a second occupation of Capitol Hill?
Finally: Trump is a wealthy American and has enough funds to buy a plea of ??not guilty; Trump was once a well-known billionaire in the United States. Although his assets shrank after leaving office, with more than two billion US dollars left, he is still one of more than 300 million people in the United States.
The money in Trump’s hands is only one of the important means to buy a sense of security. You must know that the United States is a country that values ??lawyers. As long as there is a good team of defense lawyers, black can be said to be white. There is a saying that "the rich in the United States can kill people with a good lawyer." This is an important manifestation of how money can make people go around.
For Trump, he has never admitted that he was the main messenger of the Capitol Hill riots, and some of his former senior aides also helped prove that Trump was not involved in guiding the occupation of Capitol Hill; so Trump can completely He must use his strong self to form a capable team of lawyers to defend his innocence at critical moments, so the possibility of Trump's acquittal is still very high.
Therefore, under the background of Trump’s peaceful life so far, there is a high probability that he will avoid criminal accountability in the future.