Recently, the natural resources and planning departments in many places across the country announced that residential land will be sold in two concentrations in 20021year, involving Qingdao, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and other cities. Some cities will be divided into three batches throughout the year, with centralized announcements and centralized organizations to transfer residential land.
The insiders believe that the "two concentrations" of land transfer may help encourage real estate enterprises to take land cautiously and rationally, which will play a certain role in the regulation of housing prices. However, the concentration of developers in a period of time will inevitably lead to the concentration of related projects in the market, which may have a certain impact on the sales of the real estate market.
Testing water in many places "two concentrations" to sell residential land
"There were rumors in the market before, and this officially landed recently. It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future. " After issuing relevant announcements in several cities, a person in charge of the eastern region of small and medium-sized housing enterprises told reporters that the "two concentrations" of residential land transfer are part of the regulatory policy.
"Two Concentrations" of residential land transfer, that is, centralized announcement of transfer and centralized organization of transfer activities.
According to the website of Qingdao Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, Qingdao will strictly implement the "two concentrations" of residential land for simultaneous public sale. In the whole year, the announcement of bidding, auction and auction of residential land was issued in three batches, and the bidding, auction and auction activities were implemented to guide rational market competition.
Zhengzhou Natural Resources and Planning Bureau also issued relevant notices, requiring the natural resources authorities of Zhengzhou Airport Port Area, Zhengdong New District, Economic Development Zone, High-tech Zone and Shang Jie District to prohibit the announcement of residential land transfer, and the announcement of residential land transfer in the above areas shall be uniformly organized by the Municipal Bureau for promulgation and implementation.
The relevant departments of Tianjin stipulate that in principle, the announcement of transfer shall be issued no more than three times throughout the year, and the time interval and the number of plots are relatively balanced; When transferring land centrally, the starting and ending dates of listing shall be determined. Tianjin will release the announcement of residential land transfer in three batches in March, June and mid-September. In addition to the above three dates, the local government will no longer issue a notice on the transfer of residential land.
"In the past, it was sold piece by piece, and large enterprises had advantages such as capital. The end result is that every time there are big companies involved, they take all the good things away. We can only make some leftovers. " The person in charge of the eastern region of the above-mentioned housing enterprises explained the original intention of introducing this policy in many places.
According to the industry report released by Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, in 2020, the volume and price of the land market in 40 cities will rise, the premium rate will drop slightly, and the land market will be stable as a whole. Judging from the land transaction area, after the second quarter of 2020, the property market and land market in some cities are hot. Although the regulation of hot cities was tightened in the second half of the year, the annual land transaction construction area of 40 cities still increased by 8%, hitting a new high since 20 15.
A person in charge of head housing enterprises also believes that the introduction of this policy means that head enterprises can no longer monopolize high-quality land plots, which can reduce the heat of the land market to some extent. "Because even the head enterprises have limited funds raised in a short period of time, they can only choose the best and find a few backbone forces when they concentrate on bidding, auction and hanging."
Or lead to the concentration of real estate projects in the market.
According to industry insiders, the "two concentration" land transfer policy may have a linkage effect with policies such as debt reduction by housing enterprises.
In 2020, the regulatory authorities will continue to supervise the loans and funds of housing enterprises. In August 2020, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China jointly held a forum for real estate enterprises to study and further implement the long-term real estate mechanism and formulate three red lines for real estate financing. The three red lines are "the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment is more than 70%, the net debt ratio is more than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times". The housing enterprises are divided into four grades: red, orange, yellow and green, and the scale constraints of interest-bearing liabilities of different grades of housing enterprises are different. Among them, the three red lines all exceed the standard and are red files, and the scale of interest-bearing liabilities shall not be increased; The two red lines exceed the standard and are orange files. The annual growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%.
"Centralized land acquisition is likely to lead to debt peaks of related real estate enterprises in the month of land auction, which will also put greater pressure on the corporate capital chain." The person in charge of the eastern region of the above-mentioned small and medium-sized housing enterprises said that this will further reduce the willingness of large housing enterprises to take more land and guide enterprises to participate in the bidding, auction and hanging of relevant plots more rationally and cautiously.
Ma Guangming, founder of Zhuo Yi Data, said that the land concentration policy conforms to the three red line policies. Transfer dozens of plots of land at one time, which is convenient for enterprises with sufficient funds to take land in a planned way, and reduce the opportunities for housing enterprises with tight funds, more land hoarding and higher debts to take land intermittently. This policy is good for brand enterprises with sufficient cash flow and strong financing ability, while the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises with tight funds will become smaller and smaller.
Some developers are also worried that after large-scale real estate enterprises take the land, the mobility of relevant high-quality plots among large-scale real estate enterprises will increase, and relevant regulatory measures should also take this into account, otherwise it will be more difficult for small and medium-sized real estate enterprises to take the land.
Zhang Bairen, a property market analyst, believes that compared with the "two concentration" policy, the supply problem in some cities lies in the structural irrationality of land transfer. The suburban land in some cities is oversold, while the urban land is less, so the policy of "two concentrations" or its effect is limited.
In addition, some market participants worry that centralized land acquisition, coupled with similar development and construction progress, is likely to lead to centralized real estate projects entering the market. For example, small and medium-sized housing enterprises are less attractive to buyers and their living conditions will be more difficult.
Some analysts also said that small and medium-sized housing enterprises have limited financial strength and little land to participate in. They can only win high-priced land by fighting with all their strength. If one's own operating ability and trading ability are limited, and the financing cost is too high, the probability of loss will greatly increase, and the future living environment will be even worse.
For housing enterprises, Ma Guangming believes that it is necessary to make preparations in many aspects: First, study and understand the land to be supplied before land supply, and prepare for "land selection"; Second, prepare enough funds, only three times a year, miss it and miss it; Third, the sales link should try to avoid the centralized listing period, especially in areas and sectors with more supply, reduce competition and grasp the "opportunity".