In terms of cities, Tangshan, Harbin, Yinchuan, Dezhou, Lu' an, Yichang and other cities directly canceled the sales restriction policy; Suzhou, Changzhou, Dongguan, Taizhou and other cities have shortened the sales restriction period; Qingdao, Nanjing, Haikou and Jinan have adjusted the calculation starting point of the transfer period, that is, from the time of obtaining the certificate of immovable property rights to the time of online signing or contract filing.
It is worth noting that after some cities relaxed restrictions, the number of second-hand housing listings surged.
"From the perspective of policy effects, cities with good fundamentals and strong demand will help release demand with the increase in listing volume; In cities with great adjustment pressure, due to weak expectations of buyers and more rational consumption of residents, a large number of second-hand houses entering the market will aggravate the state of oversupply in the market. Chen Wenjing, director of market research of the Index Department of the Central Reference Institute, told the reporter.
Relaxation of after-sales listing restrictions has surged
On May 25th, Tangshan, Hebei Province announced to sort out and optimize some real estate control policies, including canceling the policies of restricting the sale of commercial housing in lunan district, lubei district and High-tech Zone. According to the previous regulations, buyers who purchase new commercial housing in the above-mentioned areas may not be listed and traded within 42 months from the date of online signing.
Not only Tangshan, according to the statistics of the Central Reference Institute, as of May 25th, 20 cities have cancelled or shortened the sales restriction period.
According to RealData's report, in terms of the number of second-hand houses for sale, in cities that relax restrictions on sales, the new supply of second-hand houses will increase in the short term, which will bring about an increase in the total number of second-hand houses for sale.
According to the statistics of RealData, Dongguan reduced the sales restriction period in mid-May, and the average number of newly listed second-hand houses in May increased by about 25% compared with April. The daily average number of newly listed second-hand houses in Suzhou in May exceeded twice that in April, and also exceeded the daily average level in March. In Nanjing, Xuzhou and other places, the average daily increase of newly listed second-hand houses in May was about 50%. After Jinan relaxed the sales restriction on May 23rd, the number of newly listed second-hand houses increased significantly recently.
"From a long-term perspective, the number of new houses in Suzhou, Nanjing, Jinan and other cities in May is close to the average monthly level in the past two years." Liu, a RealData market analyst, said.
Guan Rongxue, an analyst at Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, believes that the relaxation of the sales restriction policy will help increase the supply of housing, promote the liquidity of the second-hand housing market and improve the further release of demand in the short term, but the improvement on the sales side is limited.
Industry analysts believe that in the current situation that market confidence has not recovered, relaxing the sales restriction policy may generate selling pressure, leading to oversupply in the market. Since the current transaction situation in the property market has not changed significantly, it is still unknown whether there are enough buyers to take over after the purchase restriction is relaxed.
The original intention of the policy is to curb speculation?
The property market restriction policy appeared after 20 16. At that time, the original intention of restricting sales was to curb short-term speculation, reduce the housing turnover rate and curb overheating of housing prices.
According to the research report of CITIC Securities, unlike the policy of restricting purchases and loans, the policy of restricting sales does not restrict the purchase behavior of houses, nor does it restrict the consumption leverage of houses. Instead, it deprives property owners of the possibility of selling houses in the short term, thus achieving the effect of distinguishing short-term speculation from self-occupation demand.
According to the statistics of Zhuge's housing search, since 20 17, more than 60 cities across the country have introduced policies to restrict sales. Among them, the sales restriction period in Baoding is as long as 10 year, Haikou and Shijiazhuang are 5 years, and the sales restriction period in other cities is generally 2-3 years.
"From the perspective of property market investment, it is a reasonable investment cycle to hold it for 2-3 years and then sell it. Suppressing short-term transactions is conducive to making the property market run healthier and longer. " CITIC Securities research report said.
The property market has entered a downward cycle, and the volume of commercial housing in various places has continued to be sluggish. Since the beginning of this year, the regulatory policies have been gradually relaxed. The industry expects that more cities will adjust their sales restriction policies in the future.
Liu believes that in the long run, after the sale restriction is released, the number of second-hand houses listed will increase, and the just-needed groups can have more choices; After a period of decontamination, the improved groups will sell their existing houses and buy new improved houses. Some of them will enter the new housing market, which will drive the sales of the new housing market to improve, speed up the payment of housing enterprises, improve the confidence of land acquisition and investment, repair the land market, and finally realize a virtuous circle of the real estate market.
According to the statistics of Zhuge Housing Search Data Research Center, as of May 25, 2022, over 130 cities have joined the policy relaxation camp, and the number of adjustments has reached about 2 10. Policy relaxation mainly includes relaxing settlement, relaxing purchase restriction/loan restriction/sale restriction/price restriction, reducing down payment ratio, lowering mortgage interest rate, adjusting provident fund loan policy from two aspects: increasing loanable amount and reducing down payment ratio, housing subsidy and relaxing supervision of pre-sale funds.
"In April and May, the density of regulation was greater, and the speed of urban expansion accelerated. High-energy cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing have also joined the policy relaxation camp, which has played a very good supporting role in boosting market confidence. " Guan Rong said.