The industry believes that many cities have recently relaxed restrictions on settlement and introduced a new talent policy. Although this is in line with the national policy, it does impact the property market regulation policy limited by household registration and social security, and it is easy to bring agitation to some places. What needs to be clear is that stabilizing the property market also requires two-way adjustment, which can neither cause skyrocketing nor make the market plummet. Areas with obvious market downturn and suburban counties can also make small adjustments in accordance with the policy of "one city, one policy" to stabilize expectations.
Is the loosening policy coming? Rumors in the three places "relax the purchase restriction"
On September 30 this year, the "Measures for the Implementation of Housing Purchase and Housing Subsidies for Talents in Changsha", which was tried out for two years, officially became a full member, which recently caused a heated discussion in the local area. 101On October 23rd, Changsha Housing and Construction Bureau stated that the news of "relaxing the purchase restriction" and "loosening the purchase restriction" were false information, and the formal measures did not involve the relevant contents of the current purchase restriction policy.
10 6 19, the reporter learned from the website of sanya housing and construction bureau that full-time talents with college education or above can buy a property in Hainan province after working in sanya for one year and paying social security and individual taxes for one year. Sanya Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau 2 1 said that the Notice is only the detailed implementation rules of the series of policies on talent housing previously issued by Hainan Province, which is consistent with the spirit and regulations of relevant documents in Hainan Province, and Sanya has not broken through the purchase restriction.
However, compared with the previous property market purchase restriction policy that foreign buyers had to pay 60-month social security or individual tax in Hainan Province, Sanya's new talent purchase policy relaxed the threshold for talent purchase. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the relaxation of Sanya policy has a great impact. "The real estate market in cities such as Sanya has obviously cooled down, and the talent policy is suspected of stimulating real estate in disguise."
10 On June 5438+05, Liuhe District of Nanjing issued a policy that foreigners with college education or above can issue a certificate of purchase, and they will not pay social security or individual tax for two years in three years. On June 5 this year, Gaochun District of Nanjing has cancelled the requirement that foreigners need to pay social security or individual tax certificates for two years in three years when buying a house.
On June 5438+05, Tianjin Municipal Development and Reform Commission solicited opinions on "Tianjin's Policies and Measures for Promoting the Development of Beijing's Non-capital Functional Projects (Trial)", and planned to try it out in Tianjin Binhai Zhongguancun Science Park and Baodi Zhongguancun Science and Technology City for one year. It is stipulated that for projects that undertake the relief of Beijing's non-capital functions, employees whose household registration has not yet moved to Tianjin, and whose families have no housing in Tianjin, can buy 1 apartment in Tianjin without social security or tax payment certificate. The document also relaxed Tianjin's settlement policy.
Yangzhou recently issued a policy to restore the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans from 350,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and increase the repayment ability coefficient of housing provident fund loans from 0.3 to 0.5; Recently, the loosening policy has spread in some areas of Zhuhai. Non-registered personnel can purchase 1 set in Jinwan District, Doumen District, High-tech Zone and Hengqin New District without any threshold. In August, the policy of purchasing houses in Lingang New District of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone was relaxed, and the time limit for buyers to pay taxes or social security was shortened from 5 years to 3 years.
According to the statistics of Ke Rui Research Center, since September, nearly 30 cities across the country, including Xinxiang, Luohe, Jincheng and Yichang, Hubei, have announced the cancellation of restrictions on talents' settlement. According to the statistics of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, since 20 19, more than 150 cities in China have issued various talent policies, an increase of more than 40% over the same period in 20 18. Most of these policies are related to the household registration system, which reduces the threshold for local housing purchase to varying degrees.
Most of the areas with loose regulation are suburbs, and house prices have dropped significantly.
Restrictions on settlement and lowering the threshold for talents to buy houses have sparked heated discussions in many cities. Changsha, Sanya, Nanjing Liuhe and other government departments have also denied rumors of loosening the property market.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, such policies are not strictly restricted purchases. For example, the starting point of the purchase policy of Tianjin Binhai Zhongguancun Science Park and Baodi Zhongguancun Science City is to cooperate with the strategy of Beijing's related industrial transfer and provide preferential and safeguard measures for relevant employees to purchase houses; Shanghai's policy is only aimed at the new free trade zone, which can be understood as creating an environment and attraction for talent development. However, objectively speaking, the purchase of houses by talents has indeed relaxed the purchase conditions of specific purchase groups, which has the effect of loosening the purchase restriction and will have an impact on the market.
Zhang Dawei believes that most cities in China are not ready to retain talents after attracting them. In this case, many people are attracted by property buyers, and even the possibility of real estate speculators buying houses in different cities with the help of talent policy has led to fluctuations in the real estate market.
After the property market in Lingang New District of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone was loosened, its real estate market improved. According to the data released by Shanghai Chain Home recently, in the third quarter of this year, the volume of new houses in Lingang New Town ranked first among all major sectors in Shanghai. In the third quarter, the transaction volume of new houses was 28 10 sets, with an average price of 2.96 million yuan. Although the policy of loosening the property market in Yanjiao, Hebei Province has not been confirmed, the media said that the number of people looking at houses in the market increased slightly.
The reporter combed and found that in cities where the property market has loosened recently, their house prices have either shown a relatively obvious downward trend. For example, the residential prices in Yanjiao have basically dropped 1 10,000 yuan/square meter, and the sales area of commercial housing in Sanya in the first eight months of this year has dropped by 50% year-on-year; Either the loosening area is located in the suburbs of the city, such as Liuhe District and Gaochun District in Nanjing, Lingang New District in Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone and Hengqin New District in Zhuhai. , are under development and construction, away from their respective main cities.
Xie Yifeng, president of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed the client of Zhongxin Jingwei, saying that in recent years, various policies, such as the purchase of houses by talents, the relaxation of settlement, the adjustment of provident fund loan policy, the relaxation of sales restrictions on commercial and residential projects, and the loosening of contract restrictions on purchases and loans, are closely related to the downturn of the local real estate market.
"According to our observation, cities that have introduced the property market liberalization policy are more or less faced with problems such as expanding market inventory, oversupply, declining transaction volume, large price drop, difficult land transfer, tight government revenue, and greater pressure on economic growth. Without violating the central government's major policies, the government began to adjust its policies on its own to maintain stable market operation. " Xie Yifeng said.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development previously requested that all localities should implement the main responsibility of local governments to stabilize land prices, stabilize housing prices and stabilize expectations to ensure market stability. Xie Yifeng believes that the "one-size-fits-all" policy of national property market regulation has been terminated, and the power of regulation has been transferred to local governments. In the case of a significant drop in house prices and a decline in transaction volume, all localities should be able to make appropriate adjustments.
Two-way adjustment is mainly based on stability
Since 20 16, the property market regulation sweeping across the country has spread widely, from first-and second-tier cities to some third-and fourth-tier cities, from the east to the central and western regions; In terms of strength and methods, policies such as purchase restriction, loan restriction, price restriction, sales restriction and business restriction have appeared in turn.
Up to now, the regulation effect has already appeared, the real estate market has also entered a stable period, and some places have also seen price correction. According to the house price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the price of second-hand houses in 40 cities rose, while the price of new houses in 53 cities rose, which were the lowest points in the past two years.
Xie Yifeng believes that the policy of "housing without speculation" does not mean not developing the real estate industry, nor does it mean letting it fall into a downturn. In fact, since 20 14, there has been a two-way adjustment in the regulation of the property market, including the policy of strengthening regulation and cracking down on speculation, and the policy of appropriate easing and indirect loosening. He said that real estate is not only the government's purse, but also the small treasury of ordinary residents. Under the principle of classified regulation, policy according to the city, and one city, one policy, fine-tuning can be implemented in all localities.
The same policy research institute also believes that "not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy" does not mean that real estate and economy cannot develop harmoniously. From the perspective of policy implementation, local governments will stabilize the real estate market by means of "over-cooling is directional easing, while over-heating is tightening constraints". Zhang Dawei also said that stability is a two-way adjustment. "Soaring is definitely not stable, but plunging is not stable.
Xie Yifeng predicts that policies such as talent purchase policy and relaxed settlement restrictions will appear in more cities, and it does not rule out the possibility of breaking the purchase restriction in some places. The housing big data project team of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences believes that even if the real estate control policy is marginally relaxed, it will be difficult to boost housing prices in a short time.
Although local governments can adjust according to market changes, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also said that it will establish a real estate market monitoring system and improve the evaluation and assessment mechanism for local real estate regulation. Where the work is ineffective, the market fluctuates greatly, and the regulatory objectives are not achieved, it is necessary to strictly supervise and resolutely be accountable.