He said that in the short term, the high growth rate of Jian 'an investment such as real estate construction is a feature or continuation. In the medium term, the bottoming out of real estate sales data will be an important feature of the recovery of the real estate industry this year. At the same time, I look forward to the long-term development space of China real estate industry.
● Our reporter Jiao Yuanyuan
Explore new development models
China securities journal: At this stage of development, what suggestions do you have for exploring new development modes of real estate and seeking new growth points?
Huang: For real estate, the Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed to "explore new development models". As a traditional pillar industry in China, the rapid development of real estate in the past 20 years mainly relies on the "high leverage, high turnover" two-wheel drive model to rapidly expand market share. With the slowdown of population growth and the continuous improvement of urbanization level in China, the marginal growth space of total housing demand has narrowed, and the real estate market in China has entered a stable development period from a rapid development period. Therefore, it is imperative to explore new development models and find new growth points.
First of all, a major focus of the new development model of the real estate industry lies in both rent and purchase. At present, China's housing model is still dominated by commercial housing, and the development of housing leasing and affordable housing is relatively backward. The new development model should develop two systems of commercial housing and affordable housing under the main tone of "housing without speculation", and solve the housing problem of residents through the mode of renting and purchasing simultaneously.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in cities with a large net inflow of population and a large number of new citizens and young people is prominent, and housing leasing has become an important starting point to alleviate the housing problem in big cities. Therefore, the new model should adhere to both rent and purchase, and accelerate the construction of a housing security system with affordable rental housing and * * * property housing as the main body outside the commercial housing market.
In addition, the core of both rent and purchase is to solve the problem of equal rights in rent and purchase, so that benefits such as occupancy and medical care can also be attached to rental housing. Since last year, the government has issued a series of construction projects and financial support policies to promote the development of affordable rental housing. I think this is a very correct way. In the future, we will continue to promote the construction of affordable rental housing and gradually improve the multi-level housing supply system.
Secondly, the new development model should also include the transformation of housing enterprises from development and construction to operational services. From the perspective of business development, with the development of urbanization and the change of demand-side structure, the past "high leverage and high turnover" business model of real estate enterprises will inevitably turn to the model of optimizing quality and service. In recent years, housing enterprises have continuously participated in the construction of affordable rental housing, urban renewal, renovation of old residential areas and property management. In the future, they need to pay more attention to optimizing quality and service quality, gain long-term benefits from asset management and asset operation, and then move towards a virtuous circle.
China securities journal: To maintain the healthy development of the real estate market, how can real estate regulation and control better "act according to the city"?
Huang: The essence of urban policy is the diversified solution of real estate regulation and control policies. Local governments adjust measures to local conditions and avoid the risks brought by the one-size-fits-all policy.
In the process of formulating policies for the city, local governments should strengthen the monitoring, analysis and judgment of the market and improve the accuracy of regulation. When formulating policies, specific support or suppression policies should be introduced according to the specific conditions of each city. For example, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the scale of local population mobility and the development of industrial economy, and rationally allocate new construction land indicators between regions and cities. Add the construction land index of large and medium-sized cities and subtract the construction land index of small and medium-sized cities to promote the coordinated development of large, medium and small cities. At present, the market differentiation between cities is obvious, and the market turnover and transaction price of some cities are still in the downward range. This situation requires more attention to classification guidance.
For some cities with relatively high housing inventory pressure, we should pay attention to digesting inventory, control the total amount of new development, and actively create a better environment and policy for destocking. For cities with excessive pressure of rising house prices, it is necessary to strictly implement differentiated housing credit tax and housing purchase restriction policies, and adhere to the policy of stabilizing house prices under the main theme of "staying and not speculating". At present, some cities are under great pressure of policy adjustment, so we should speed up the introduction and implementation of supporting policies, boost the confidence of buyers, ensure the normal release of reasonable housing demand, improve the efficiency of capital use of housing enterprises, and promote the smooth operation of the real estate market.
Pay attention to real estate sales data
China securities journal: Recently, there have been frequent positive signals in the real estate market. What characteristics will the follow-up market present?
Huang: Recently, the real estate policies in some large, medium and small cities in China have been relaxed, mainly including relaxing the restrictions on loans and purchases, reducing the down payment ratio, increasing the amount of provident fund loans, lowering the mortgage interest rate, and granting housing subsidies. The main purpose is to protect the confidence of real estate consumers in home ownership, so that some housing enterprises with high liquidity pressure can get room for adjustment.
In the short term, the high growth rate of Jian 'an investment in real estate construction is a feature or continuation. 65438' s latest real estate investment data of10-February shows that the 3.7% year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment is mainly supported by land acquisition fees. Under the pressure of "ensuring the completion and delivery of the building", the growth performance of construction and start-up of Jian' an investment has also recovered to some extent. I think the growth rate of real estate investment in the next few months may fluctuate from month to month due to the increase or decrease of land purchase expenses in the current period. But in the short term, the sustained recovery of Jian 'an investment will be one of the more obvious characteristics of real estate development investment.
In the medium term, the bottoming out of real estate sales data will be an important feature of the recovery of the real estate industry this year. According to the research on the downward cycle of real estate in the past three rounds in China, generally, within 4 to 6 months after the mortgage interest rate gradually declines, residents' willingness to increase leverage will be gradually stimulated, which will then drive the real estate sales market to pick up. Real estate sales data is an important leading indicator of real estate investment, which has an impact on real estate development investment from two aspects: the source of funds and the willingness to invest. On the one hand, the external financing of real estate is limited, the local government has a strong intention of "delivering affordable housing", and the source of real estate investment funds is highly dependent on sales receipts. On the other hand, the recovery of sales can be quickly re-transmitted to the investment side through the start and completion.
From the perspective of industry structure, the blueprint for the future of the real estate industry is basically determined, and the improvement of industry concentration will also be an important feature this year. In the next stage, the support direction of wide credit is mainly the M&A loan of real estate and the reasonable capital demand of high-quality real estate enterprises.
The future development space is full of expectations.
China securities journal: The steady development of real estate has an important systematic impact on economic and financial stability. What is the development space of the real estate industry in the future?
Huang: I don't think it is appropriate to be overly pessimistic about the medium and long-term development space and pattern of the real estate industry. First of all, in the medium term, the real estate industry is still an extremely important part of the national economy, which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood and financial stability. Therefore, at the moment when the epidemic has not passed, no matter for the purpose of steady growth or the need to protect people's livelihood, the real estate industry is not allowed to decline significantly. Moreover, after the epidemic subsided, all areas of China's economy were likely to have "retaliatory" growth, and the bottoming out of the real estate market might become a bright spot at that time.
Secondly, the general tone of "housing and not speculation" will not change at present. The establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism will promote a more reasonable real estate market structure, and the total and structural policies to solve real estate-related problems will be intensively introduced, which is objectively beneficial to the development of the industry.
Finally, from a long-term logic point of view, with the deepening of new urbanization in China, the urban population will continue to grow steadily, which will support the real estate market in areas with net population inflow. By the end of 20021,China's urbanization rate has reached 63.89%. Although the absolute level is relatively high, there is still room for improvement compared with the urbanization rate of 70% to 80% in developed countries such as the United States, Japan and Germany. Therefore, for a long time to come, the downstream demand of the real estate market is guaranteed.
The real estate industry is an ancient industry, which will have its brand-new forms in different times. Generally speaking, I am still full of expectations for the medium and long-term development space of the real estate industry in China.