The myth of maintaining and increasing the value of real estate has been broken. The reason behind this is that the golden age of "leveraged buying a house" has ended. As an investment target, the liquidity and liquidity of real estate are gradually declining, and the mentality of developers, managers and owners is constantly anxious, just like the performance of transaction volume and price.
The deeper reason is that the policy of restricting purchases and loans has curbed demand, the demographic dividend has reached a critical point, the supply and demand structure has undergone profound changes, and the incremental market has entered an inflection point.
It is unlikely that the real estate regulation and control will greatly relax the policy in the future. Many insiders predict that tight credit is still a long-term trend, and long-term mechanisms such as real estate tax and land system will be gradually improved. China housing market is expected to return to residence, and housing enterprises will tap new growth points in the stock market.
Second-hand housing price reduction tide
Mr. Zhang, the owner of Shenzhen, bought a large apartment in Longgang Central City on 20/0/6, which was at the peak of Shenzhen property market. At that time, he would never have thought that the property in his hand had been devalued for two consecutive years.
In the second-hand housing market in Beijing, some owners are also eager to sell their houses.
Mr. Zhang, who is anxious, is just the epitome of many second-hand housing owners in first-tier cities. 1 Towards the end, the second-hand housing market continued the downturn in the second half of 20 18, and first-tier cities were still hit hard by the downward adjustment of second-hand housing prices.
However, the value of luxury houses is particularly significant.
A few days ago, it was reported that nearly 20 luxury houses in Shimao Riverside Garden in Lujiazui, Pudong, Shanghai were sold "seriously below the market price", which caused an uproar in the industry.
According to the real-time data of Anjuke, the average listing price of Shimao Riverside Garden in two areas is 90,300 yuan/square meter, but there are still five suites with prices below 70,000 yuan/square meter, and each suite is below the market price 100 to 2 million.
The data also shows that since May last year, the average price of Shimao Riverside Garden has been falling in September.
In Shenzhen, the property market "wind vane", luxury houses and villas represented by Shenzhen Bay and OCT in the east also fell.
Following the rumor that the owner in Tianlu, the Oriental Overseas Chinese Town, sold the house at a loss of10 million, Huangting Port, a luxury residential area in Shenzhen Bay, also sold for 3 million, which confirmed the conclusion that "buying a house must earn" in Shenzhen or was subverted.
Second-hand housing market data also highlights the market downturn.
According to the data of Leyoujia and Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Soil and Resources Management, the transaction price and quantity of second-hand houses in Shenzhen decreased obviously in the second half of 20 18, and the transaction volume in the fourth quarter was below the recognized safety line of 5,000 sets/month, and fell below 4,000 sets 12.
According to data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan, the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen has fallen for four consecutive months. Judging from the number of sets of transactions, as of February 23rd, 65,438 and 2,699 sets of second-hand houses were sold in Shenzhen in June, and 4 1 175 sets were sold in1October, down 35% from the previous month.
Judging from the price of second-hand housing, Guangzhou is "leading the decline" in first-tier cities. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 20 18, the sales price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities dropped by 0.3% month-on-month, falling for four consecutive months. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased by 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
The house exchange chain is blocked.
Many real estate researchers pointed out that the second-hand housing market is in a downturn, and policy adjustment is the main reason.
As far as Shenzhen is concerned, after the 73 1 New Deal, the Shenzhen property market suffered heavy losses, the downward pressure on the economy increased, and the market was expected to decline.
Under the government's strict price limit and loan restriction, the phenomenon of first-hand and second-hand housing prices hanging upside down is obvious. In addition, the "three certificates in one" policy has increased the cost of changing houses, and second-hand transactions have fallen into a downturn.
Xiao Xiaoping further pointed out that in addition to controlling demand, rising expectations are the key to affecting the market. "Under the expectation of economic downturn, buyers will take a wait-and-see attitude and buy houses more cautiously."
Xiao Xiaoping said that the market generally believes that the country's expectations for real estate regulation are large, and there is little room for price increases. Under this premise, buyers will slow down the decision-making speed.
This shows that even in the Shenzhen property market, consumers no longer have the confidence that "investing in real estate will earn".
In addition, a huge number of new developers entered the market at the end of the year, which affected the second-hand housing transactions to some extent.
Taking Shenzhen as an example, Huaqiang City and Vanke Star City opened more than 4,000 suites, and finally sold about 2,000 suites. Vanke, Feng Xuan and Hongrongyuan Yicheng City Center also cast nets at the end of the year.
Under the triple pressure of mortgage down payment, tax and new house promotion, the second-hand house transaction fell into a downturn in June 5438+February.
According to the data of Leyoujia and Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Soil and Resources, the transaction price and quantity of second-hand houses in Shenzhen on 20 18, especially since the second half of the year, have dropped significantly. In the fourth quarter, the turnover was all below the recognized safety line of 5,000 sets/month, and 12 fell below 4,000 sets.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, predicted that in 20 19 years, if there is no obvious change in real estate policy and credit policy, the downward adjustment of the market will be inevitable.
The end of the era of "leveraged buying a house"
"The key to housing price depends on credit", Zhang Dawei pointed out that under the background of tight liquidity, the liquidity of real estate assets is low, so buying a house, especially in non-core cities, is no longer a safe investment choice.
According to the latest data of the central bank, at the end of 20 18, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 38.7 trillion yuan, up 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year. The annual increase was 6.45 trillion yuan, accounting for 39.9% of the increase of various loans in the same period, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than the previous year.
In addition, by the end of 20 18, the balance of individual housing loans was 25.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, and the growth rate was 4.4 percentage points lower than that at the end of last year.
The balance of personal mortgage continued to narrow, and the leverage of residents' purchase of houses also entered the downward channel. According to the calculation of Yiju Research Institute, in the third quarter of 2065438+2008, the leverage ratio of on-balance-sheet housing purchase of national residents was 3 1.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and 6.5 percentage points from the same period last year.
According to historical data, in the fourth quarter of 20 16, the leverage ratio of residents' house purchase reached the highest level since 20 10, which was 44. 1%. In the first quarter of 20 17, the index decreased slightly to 43.8%, and then decreased continuously for six quarters.
This means that with the continuous tightening of credit policy and the influence of liquidity factors, the space for residents to add leverage has been extremely limited, and the liquidity of real estate has deteriorated.
Until 65438+February, the tense property market showed some signs of loosening, and the policy trends in various places decreased significantly, so people's expectations for the property market changed.
According to the data of Rong 360, from June to February in 5438, the average interest rate of the first home loan in China was 5.68%, which was equivalent to the benchmark interest rate 1. 159 times. This is the first time that the average interest rate of the first home loan in China has dropped in 23 months. The average value of the first set of interest rates in popular cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen has declined to varying degrees. Among them, Shenzhen was lowered from benchmark floating 15% to floating 10%.
He Qianru predicted that the downward adjustment of the interest rate of 20 19 mortgage will have a great impact on the overall market, but the focus still depends on the extent of the downward adjustment.
She further pointed out that in addition to the mortgage interest rate, there are other factors that will affect the changes in market turnover. Although there are favorable factors for interest rate adjustment, it does not mean that the transaction volume will rise.
Take Shenzhen as an example. "In 20 19, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the city will face downward pressure. It is estimated that the decline of the transaction volume of second-hand houses in the city will be around 5%- 10%." He Qianru said that it is difficult for second-hand housing prices to rise sharply, and it is expected that the rate of housing price increase will slow down in 20 19.
On the other hand, Zhang Dawei pointed out that the policy bottom of the national real estate market has emerged, and it is unlikely that it will be fully relaxed in the future. Credit will still be in a tight environment, and the policy of restricting loans will be strictly implemented, but the reasonable credit for self-occupation demand will be tilted, which is also the most likely change in real estate policy in 20 19.
For investors, the era of "leveraged buying a house" may be gone forever.