The second is monetary and financial policies. The level of opinions of the nine ministries and commissions has indeed improved, and one of them is the solution of the down payment problem. The theoretical basis for setting a down payment of 20% is to ensure that the non-performing loan ratio of mortgage loans is below 0.5%, and 30% can also be considered. Such a monetary and financial policy is feasible, because state-owned banks are the main ones now, even joint-stock banks are state-owned shares. Therefore, the policy of distinguishing speculative demand from normal demand is another progress.
Xie Guozhong: I think the current policy direction is correct. The down payment can be less for self-occupied houses, but if it is investment or speculation-the two are actually synonyms-the risk to the bank will be high, and the down payment will be increased. Even if it is raised to 30%, I think it is still relatively low.
Levying business tax on selling houses will affect the second-hand housing market to some extent. However, the development of the second-hand real estate market does not need much emphasis.
Relatively speaking, the second-hand market is not active, which may reduce certain income, but it is too active and causes a bubble, which has a great impact on the people. Moreover, according to the current policy, the second-hand market is not active at first, but will be active in five years, and many houses can be traded. This price is also fixed, and it will be solved by itself after a while.
I think many measures have a certain impact on the real market demand, such as squeezing speculation through down payment, but it is true that some people want to buy a second house when they have money, but they cannot be distinguished from speculation in policy; If we start with the value-added tax, it will be different, because he bought a second house to live in, and he won't care about staying in his hands for a few more years.
2 1 century: from "national eight articles" to "national six articles", what is the main line of real estate regulation and change?
Xie Guozhong: The main line behind the change of real estate control policy actually reflects the political system of China. It is the result of the struggle between the interests of the central government and local governments.
From the policy point of view, the reward and punishment system of local government officials should be changed. We should not only measure the achievements of local governments by economic growth, but also consider the balance factors and how to implement them concretely. This is a very important topic. If this system can't be done well in China, the economy will definitely fluctuate greatly.
"265438+20th century": After the promulgation of "Six Articles of the State", nine ministries and commissions formulated "Opinions on Adjusting Housing Supply Structure and Stabilizing Housing Prices" according to its spirit. How to evaluate how to promote "stable housing prices" to such a core position?
Xu Dianqing: Just now, I talked about the progress of "Six Articles of the State". However, the opinions of the nine ministries still have several tails. I call it "A Q's braid". Can the government limit house prices? The real policy tools are land policy, monetary and financial policy and fiscal and taxation policy. This fiscal and taxation policy has made some progress, but it is not enough. The rise in house prices is the general trend, which is beyond the control of the government, but the house price index will definitely decline, because the internal structure has changed, and low-and middle-income people have housing.
Yan Wen: As xu teacher said, house prices will definitely go up. Any theory that studies real estate, especially price analysis, describes the price in this way: first, it is a rising straight line, and then it fluctuates within this price range, which is the characteristic of real estate products and industries. There are at least two reasons to support it. First, products are irreplaceable, and residential consumption cannot be replaced by other consumption. Second, the main raw materials for real estate production are land resources, which are non-renewable and scarce resources. Therefore, the overall housing prices are rising, and this objective reality should be acknowledged.
The previous regulation focused more on housing prices. Although this regulation does not say so, I feel that it focuses on solving the housing problem of low-and middle-income people. The most important thing is to make these people affordable and improve their living conditions.
Xie Guozhong: Speaking of housing prices, as long as it doesn't affect the living of ordinary residents and the security of the financial system, consumers are willing to pay their own money to buy a house at a high price, which doesn't hinder anyone. However, if the high housing price is caused by borrowing a lot of bank loans to buy a house, it is another matter. After all, the government still has to consider this risk in the banking system. In addition, people can't afford to live in a house after it has been fired.
Now some people think that it is wrong for the government to intervene in real estate speculators, saying that the government should not intervene in the market. This view is wrong. Financial speculation has a great influence, while real estate speculation has a great influence on ordinary people.
Besides, the land in China is state-owned, not private. If the house price is fired, the people can't afford to buy a house, which is a very unstable factor politically-unlike the United States and Japan, where the land is privately owned and the buildings themselves don't have much money, so the government intervention in China is necessary.
265438+20th century: What do you think is the focus of the "Six Articles of the State" and related policies thereafter?
Yan Wen: Generally speaking, the premise of this regulation is that the real estate industry is a pillar industry, and it is necessary to guide and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. In my opinion, this has clearly defined a good premise for the formulation of policies and the next implementation.
From the perspective of regulation, the most important thing is that the government should make great efforts to distinguish what low-and middle-income people are, understand who the key targets are, and then how to ensure that their consumption has a strong direction. If the government can't distinguish between low-income, middle-income and people who simply can't afford a house, then the efficiency of this policy will decline, even affecting the whole social economy, and the government's fiscal revenue will also decline.
In this regard, I have three views. First, no matter what form it takes, the housing problem of the lowest income group should be guaranteed, but the existing policies can't guarantee it. One of the reasons is that low-rent housing can't get out; Second, protect the consumption of the middle class, and the house price should not rise too high to affect their purchase; Third, for high-income people, increasing part of the down payment has no restrictions on their consumption, but it has a greater impact on low-and middle-income people buying houses, so it will not have much impact on housing prices at this stage.
From the developer's point of view, in fact, I am not worried about the problems caused by the increase in down payment. First, because the increase in down payment has no effect on high-end houses; Second, because of the high price elasticity of high-end products.
Focus on "90 square meters"
"265438+20th century": The Opinions stipulates that "the proportion of newly approved and newly started commercial housing construction with a construction area of less than 90 square meters (including affordable housing) must reach more than 70% of the total development and construction area". There is a lot of controversy in this regard. How to evaluate?
Xie Guozhong: I think it is very important to limit the proportion of small and medium-sized units. It is also important to stop hoarding houses and improve the information batch system. Generally speaking, this set of measures is much better than last year.
However, this is not necessarily easy to operate. I think there is still room for turning in policy, and there are "countermeasures" to deal with it. The key is whether the local government is sincere. Local governments originally hoped for high housing prices and high income, but if the central government linked the local real estate situation with the promotion opportunities of officials, it would have a touching effect on some local officials.
Yan Wen: It is understandable for the government to formulate this policy from an expert's point of view, but there are problems at the operational level. For example, more than 20 million square meters in Beijing have been approved for planning, but the construction procedures have not been completed. This 20 million square meters was originally planned to be launched in the next three to six months, but according to the current rules, it will be re-planned, and the launch of these houses will be postponed. The pressure on government management departments will be very great.
Secondly, it is the corresponding problem with the Administrative Licensing Law. Because the developer bought the land according to the plan, the government approved the developer's plan, and the developer promoted the whole follow-up construction on this basis. In this case, due to the new policy of the government, the development progress and price will change. This has caused losses to enterprises because of the changes in government approval. I think these specific problems need careful consideration.
Hu Bin: I think the government should study policies, such as land policy, tax policy and financial policy. The specific "90 square meters" should be decided by the market and by the developers. Because most domestic developers are more responsible, they will study their own products and positioning and recover their investment. Moreover, for a real estate development enterprise, the pursuit of profit is also the driving force for his continuous development, and he will improve his core competitiveness. The last article of Article 6 says that relying on false information and illegal means, which is also a very small number of developers affecting the overall image of real estate developers, can not be considered that the vast majority of developers are bad.
Finance and taxation are the most powerful means to adjust the rich and poor in society. It will be more effective to use fiscal and taxation policies to clarify the government's measures to develop small-sized houses and solve the housing needs of low-and middle-income people. For example, the deed tax of commercial housing below 90 square meters is very low, the deed tax of commercial housing below 90- 120 square meters is higher, and the deed tax of commercial housing below160 square meters is higher.
Yan Wen: Yes. The government should study and determine a general goal, not a micro goal. Regarding the issue of "90 square meters", in fact, the government has long had similar documents in this regard, such as low-rent housing and affordable housing. In fact, as long as the proportion of low-rent housing and affordable housing is determined. After the proportion is determined, the right to operate is handed over to the developer, which should be done by the local government itself, because the situation in different regions is different.
There is a big problem with the regulation of "90 square meters". At least it should be managed according to large administrative divisions, not individual projects, which will be much better.
Wang Yonghong: I think it is much more effective to increase the disposal of idle land in the Opinions than the policy of "90 square meters". In fact, the rule of "90 square meters" is across the board, but our view is cut horizontally. For example, build a project in Shunyi and Chaoyang District of Beijing. Chaoyang district can build 70 square meters and 90 square meters, but Shunyi is so far away, people must be more spacious, and it costs 100 square meters. Fixing 30% of large-sized units and 70% of small-sized units in an area may be problematic.
Yan Wen: This kind of operation was completed in the early11990s. At that time, the policy was flexible. Before the early 1990s, all construction communities were required to use 10%- 15% to support the comfortable housing project, and the government used 1500- 1800 yuan to buy it back, but there was no way to implement it later. Why? For example, it is definitely unrealistic to buy a house with a development cost of 5,000 yuan 1500 yuan. For example, a house in Changping sells for several hundred yuan, and 1500 yuan repurchase is not acceptable.
Dai Qing: First of all, there are problems with scientific rigor and operability. According to the opinion, the residential development and construction area below 90 square meters accounts for more than 70%. As we all know, even for pure residential projects, the construction area includes underground garage, civil air defense, equipment room, supporting and non-supporting public construction area, so the proportion of houses below 90 square meters must reach at least 80%, so the planning supporting indicators such as apartment type, parking and supporting need to be changed and adjusted. In particular, the planning and design revision of the completed planning and approval projects is very heavy, which brings great pressure to the government and developers. There is a problem with short-term supply, and now in many cases, work stops in the waiting rule.
The goal of policy regulation
"2 1 century": Since the real estate regulation in 2003, various government departments have continuously issued relevant policies. How do you evaluate these measures? How do you think the policy objectives of regulating real estate should be set?
Dai Qing: We still feel that there is a serious "one size fits all" problem in policy formulation. Some arbitrarily confuse issues of different levels, regions, stages of development and systems. Imagine whether the real estate market problems in cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou can adopt the same policy orientation and implementation plan for second-and third-tier underdeveloped inland cities.
Xie Guozhong: Real estate regulation has two goals. One goal is to ensure the housing needs of ordinary residents so that they can afford to buy a house; The second is the security of the financial system, and the risk of real estate intervention should be strictly controlled, but of course this regulation is not to attack the real estate itself. At present, too much money in China will cause a bubble, but there is no way to solve it for the time being.
In order to make the real estate market work effectively, it is not known when the problem of China's capital surplus can be solved unless it is properly solved, because the United States is still clamoring for the appreciation of the renminbi, resulting in a large amount of hot money flowing to China.
Li Daokui: I think real estate regulation may ask a basic question, that is, what does the government want and what is its goal. Although this regulation does not clearly tell everyone what the goal is, it is an improvement on the previous regulation. In my opinion, government supervision basically has three goals:
First, squeezing bubbles, which are two different concepts from controlling prices. Some price increases can be supported by future rent increases, and can also be supported by future discounts on non-monetary benefits that consumers get from the houses they own. Once the bubble is formed and burst, it will not only have an impact on the financial industry and economy, but also the real estate developers are the biggest victims. Real estate developers are very proud when house prices rise, but the real test is to see who can afford it when the house cannot be sold. Hong Kong's top five real estate developers are not five at the beginning, but many at the beginning, all of which were left behind after big waves.
At present, a large part of China people's wealth is concentrated in financial assets. In a certain period of time in the future, it is a general trend for some people to transfer financial assets to real estate, which in turn supports the rise of real estate prices to some extent. In this case, foam is particularly easy to produce. So, the first thing is to squeeze the foam. The most important way to squeeze the bubble is not to raise the down payment. Regardless of the long-term housing price, raising the down payment actually hit ordinary buyers. Squeezing bubbles is not to control the vacancy rate, and I don't think property tax can control bubbles. Property tax speculators can afford it. After all, it is a short-term behavior, and the property tax cannot be too high in the short term.
Also, it is not the best way to collect business tax in full according to the income from selling houses for less than five years, because the tax base of business tax is not the profits of speculators themselves, but the total sales. For those who have not gained speculative gains, he would rather wait until four years later, which artificially reduces the supply of real estate transactions, which is of course inappropriate.
The best way to crack down on short-term trading is to levy value-added tax, which is the key to short-term speculation and easy to operate. If the first house of an American family is sold within five years, and the transaction exceeds the prescribed upper limit, such as the value-added part of the house price exceeding 250,000, it will be taxed according to personal income, which is very strong.
The second goal is welfare redistribution. To some extent, welfare redistribution is an important means to maintain political and social stability. At present, the gap between consumption and welfare of Chinese citizens is mainly reflected in housing consumption, because the gap between ordinary citizens in food and clothing is not big. If the difference in housing area and quality caused by income and wealth inequality makes most citizens strongly demand to change the existing distribution system, then the government's welfare redistribution policy in the real estate industry is understandable, beyond the scope of economic analysis, and it is a political and social issue. The key is what policy to adopt to achieve this goal. Another political and social problem closely related to welfare redistribution is how to make the middle class, which accounts for an important proportion of social members, own their own houses as soon as possible instead of renting houses, which is conducive to political and social stability.
Third, although I think this goal is still vague, it should also be put forward, that is, China people should change their consumption concepts and ways. Personally, I predict that China will form several megalopolis with a population of hundreds of millions in the future, such as Beijing to Tianjin, Nanjing to Shanghai to Hangzhou, Guangzhou to Shenzhen to Hong Kong, etc., which may all become such megalopolis. In this megacity, everyone is content to have their own small world. Small houses not only save resources, but also can be made very exquisitely. Similar to modern architectural design in Japan and Hong Kong, one goal of real estate regulation should be to guide the future real estate consumption pattern, so as to reduce the adjustment cost of changing from extensive consumption to fine consumption pattern in the future.