Why do people buy a house? Why do some people like to buy a house?
Because houses are rising in price, people buy houses and like to buy them!
Perhaps, many people will question me loudly: Is it because the house price is rising and I just need to buy a house?
Yes, you are right! If house prices do not rise, many people will at least not be in a hurry to buy a house!
There is no real estate speculators. If you buy a house to make money, there will be real estate speculators.
Prices go up, house prices go up, and people want to buy a house and get a little return.
With the development of the times, rising house prices have actually become the underlying logic of buying a house.
Let's first analyze why house prices will rise:
Since the housing reform in 1989, in the past 30 years, many people have bought houses passively for reasons such as marriage, and as a result, they have gained money that they may not earn in their lifetime with their own labor income, ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions or even billions. But they may not know why. Take a good look at this article today. The change of logic is the biggest motivation and motivation to buy a house!
So what is the driving force to promote the market-oriented reform of modern housing? We think it is mainly the following two reasons.
1, debt response
In fact, the domestic debt problem has always existed, even very serious. In order to boost GDP, eliminate cement and steel production capacity and stabilize the employed population, many places have done many things with low return on investment. For example, billions of dollars have been spent to build a luxurious expressway in the mountains and forests in poor areas, and more money has been spent on scenic spots, parks and cultural squares. These have made GDP go up, but it is basically impossible to repay the money owed, even without paying interest.
But China is an imperial society, pursuing harmony and stability. The country will not let its credit collapse. The only way to go is to borrow new debts to pay off old debts, but the debts will not disappear. Moreover, RMB is not the world currency, and it can only be distributed to every citizen of China through excessive currency dilution. Therefore, honest people here will suffer. For example, all your hard-earned money is deposited in the bank, and the money is depreciating more and more. You are actually being belittled by others. Many people have had the experience of buying a house and putting their wealth in real estate. At least these 30 years have been tried and tested!
Then the problem here comes again. If a large amount of funds flood into the fields of daily consumption and people's livelihood, commodity prices will skyrocket and ordinary people will not be able to live.
So we must find a tool that is not so relevant to everyone's rigid needs. This is our housing market. You can think of it as a sponge with super absorbent capacity, sucking in super coins in rounds, which you have seen in the past few rounds of housing price increases!
This has led to uneven distribution of wealth, and everyone wants to lay out real estate to get high returns!
As a big reservoir in China for 30 years, real estate has played an indelible role in coping with various financial crises!
2. Exchange rate control
Monetary advantage is the first wealth! Under currency competition, exchange rate competition is inevitable, and exchange rate is a wrestling between countries, which is difficult to predict. So how does exchange rate control affect currency overshoot?
As we all know, in the early days of China's reform and opening-up, foreign trade was the most important among the troika that boosted the economy. When our technology is still backward, we can only export China products to the world by price advantage.
Because of its price advantage, China has exported a lot of goods to the United States and maintained a trade surplus for a long time. When a large number of dollars chase RMB, RMB should continue to appreciate because of the shortage of supply, but once RMB appreciates too fast, it will hit our foreign trade export industry.
Therefore, the country needs a slow appreciation of RMB, and the best way is to increase the supply of RMB to settle foreign exchange, thus forming a huge foreign exchange reserve of 3 trillion US dollars in our country. Dollars cannot circulate in China. What if all the dollars earned from foreign trade are turned over? At this time, grandma appeared, started the printing machine, and changed all your dollars into RMB through a certain discount, which increased the total amount of money in our market a lot. Although foreign exchange reserves are difficult for ordinary people to understand, they are a good way to counter American hegemony and deal with the financial crisis. Although bitter, it is very powerful!
Ok, let's talk about the two main reasons for the currency overshoot first, and then look at the following chart, which is a comparison chart of China's M2 increment and GDP increment from 2000 to 20 10.
In this picture, the actual growth of M2 is far greater than the growth of GDP, and what is more is the increase of inflation caused by excessive currency.
Generally speaking, the increase of money supply = the increase of inflation+the increase of real economy.
In the past ten years, the average annual growth rate of M2 was 18%, the average annual growth rate of real GDP was 9%, and the average annual growth rate of real CPI was only 1.8% (this also corresponds to the above statement that people's livelihood should not be increased too much, otherwise the people would be jujube rice). Where did the remaining 7.2% go? Smart, you must already know the answer. Absorbed by the super sponge of the housing market, it coincides with the average annual increase of housing prices in the past decade, mainly due to monetary phenomena (especially in the last decade).
So in China: M2 increases, real GDP increases +CPI increases+house prices rise excessively.
House prices rose M2, real GDP rose and CPI rose.
This is why once the country's economic growth is not obvious and it begins to enlarge water, house prices will soar, M2 will become larger, GDP will become smaller, and CPI will not allow it to rise or rise slightly, which will lead to an increase in house prices. The real estate industry has actually driven 100 other industries (real estate is the real economy). On the surface, the country can't see that house prices have been skyrocketing, so there will be a suppression policy. Therefore, the general trend of housing prices you see is: starting to rise-rising-suppressing-even sideways for several years-economic downturn-continuing a new round of rise.
The financial crisis cycle is inevitable, money is released again and again, and the property market rises against the trend again and again. In the final analysis, money is the first factor of real estate price increase!
Note: This trend is mainly applicable to the trend of housing prices in the first-and second-tier areas and some third-tier areas. Because the tonnage of the house is already very large now, the release of water can no longer stimulate the general increase of the national market, and the funds have the nature of hedging. It must be to the safest and best real estate market. So in the long run, only big cities have real estate, and other places will gradually return to the property of commercial housing.
More importantly, in order to strengthen the financial attribute of the house and let the whole people participate in this game, in addition to the value of living, the state has also given resources under the royal power, such as household registration, medical care, education, status and so on. Naturally, there will be three times the financial leverage. This is a small door for the upper class to distribute wealth to the lower class, especially in first-tier and second-tier cities, where resources are highly concentrated, and the price increase is naturally much greater than other places.
If you can't understand and start to act, you can only passively dilute your wealth or be transferred by others (for example, people who buy houses early distribute the wealth of people who buy houses late). Whether you like it or not, as long as you are in China, you are in this game.
What we can do is to be familiar with the rules of the game and become a few winners!
Because of repeated opportunities, people are profitable in real estate, so they are more considering buying a house!
In the new era of the United States, money is flooding and flowing to the whole world, which leads more people to be more cautious about fighting the country and have more and more expectations for the property market! Unfortunately, it is not what it used to be. In order to prevent the real estate financial bubble from getting bigger and bigger, affecting the national Universiade, we have to vigorously regulate the current property market, so we should keep our eyes open when buying a house!
Finally, the second logic of buying a house: people buy a house because the price of the house has risen. Although the facts are undeniable, we need to respect the policy and be firm in our determination not to speculate! On the way to buy a house, watch more, listen more and run more, and make the right choice! 202 1 The situation is severe and complicated. This may be the last chance, so please seize it! If in doubt, you can add Bian Xiao WeChat to learn more professional knowledge.
Bian Xiao has been deeply involved in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area for ten years, and the location control of the core area of the core city is very fine. At the same time, Bian Xiao is not an intermediary, but a real estate worker from the media, who will analyze and predict the value of real estate from a deep perspective, not to sell the house, but to provide the most suitable purchase plan for fans and friends.