"I have just settled in Hangzhou for more than a month, and I have been paying attention to the new house of the Olympic Sports Plate recently. I didn't expect that social security was restricted in less than two years. " On the evening of August 5th, zhangyan (a pseudonym), a property buyer, told the Times Weekly reporter.
At the end of 20 19, zhangyan came to work in Hangzhou. In less than two years, with his own efforts, he was promoted to the management of the company. Originally, I wanted to buy a house for myself and take root in Hangzhou. Now I am forced to postpone my purchase plan because of a piece of regulations.
Like zhangyan, not only young people who came to Hangzhou to work hard, but also 550,000 college students and countless foreign investors in Hangzhou lost their qualification to buy a house overnight.
Disappeared the qualification to buy a house
On the morning of August 5, Hangzhou issued the "Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation of the Real Estate Market" to start a new round of purchase restriction standards.
According to the notice, registered families who have settled in Hangzhou for less than five years can only buy 1 apartment within the city's purchase restriction if they have paid urban social security for 24 months continuously from the two years before the date of purchase. However, for buyers with foreign accounts, the required social security payment period is increased from 2 years to 4 years.
Moreover, when the newly-built commodity housing project is sold in public, the ratio of the number of registered families with purchase intention to the number of houses sold in public is greater than or equal to 10: 1, families without housing and ordinary families are sorted by the number of months of social security payment, and families with high-level talents are sorted by B, C, D and E talents from high to low, and talents in the same category will be sorted by the number of months of social security payment from high to low.
(Hangzhou's policy comparison before and after the regulation on August 5. Image source: Han Yizhi Library)
On August 8, a buyer in Hangzhou who has successfully "boarded the bus" told the Times Weekly reporter that compared with other cities, Hangzhou's previous settlement policy was relatively loose, and generally college degree or above plus 1 month social security can be settled. If you are a married family from other places or single over 30 years old, you can buy a house in Hangzhou as a houseless household even if you have real estate in other places.
On August 6th, Yu Xiaoyu, research director of Han Yizhiku, told Times Weekly that the overweight of social security payment period reduced the room tickets of two groups of people in Hangzhou. "One is that college students in Hangzhou have obtained room tickets by settling down; The other is the real estate speculators who only come to speculate and do not settle down, which will invalidate about 30% of the room tickets in the market. "
However, Shangguan Jian, president of Hangzhou RealData, believes that only college students' room tickets have reached 30%.
"After this regulation, about 550,000 college students in Hangzhou were disqualified from buying houses. It turns out that only one month's social security is needed to buy a house after Hangzhou talents settle down. College students who have settled in Hangzhou collective hukou are also eligible to buy a house. Now the purchase possibility of these college students is directly blocked. According to our rough calculation, the room ticket is about 30% less. " On August 5, Shangguan Jian told the Times Weekly reporter.
"Indeed, this policy is more stringent, involving a wider range and a higher degree of tightness. In the future, the room ticket in Hangzhou will become more and more precious. " In Shangguan Jian's view, every regulation in Hangzhou is to stop speculators, which not only destroys the grabbing effect of hot real estate, but also cuts off the impact on market expectations and avoids transmission to the second-hand housing market, thus stabilizing the market.
The buyer's mentality is stable.
Since the beginning of this year, in order to further stabilize market expectations, Hangzhou property market has been constantly regulated.
On October 27th, 65438/kloc-0, on the basis of the original limited sale, Hangzhou included a batch of houses with the winning rate below 10% in the five-year sales range.
At the end of March, the policy of "two centralized land supply" on the land side landed. In May and June, the personal housing loan interest rate rose twice, and the personal first home loan interest rate in Hangzhou rose to 6.25%, a record high in five years. On July 13, Hangzhou Planning and Natural Resources Bureau issued an internal notice to stop the "homestead business villa" in the tenth district of Hangzhou.
Under successive regulation, the heat of the new residential market in Hangzhou has not cooled down, and hot projects in the main city are still hard to find. On August 5th, the data from the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute showed that the supply of new residential buildings in Hangzhou has always been less than the demand in the past six months. With the sharp increase in transactions in May, the supply-demand ratio reached a rare low of 0.27.
(Overview of the supply of new houses in Hangzhou Image source: Yiju Research Institute Think Tank Center)
"I am under 30 years old and single. The probability of Hangzhou shaking a new plate is too low. In the past six months, I have participated in six or seven lucky draws and have never entered the top 50%. " On August 6th, Liu Na (pseudonym), who is engaged in HR work in the real estate industry, told the Times Weekly reporter.
However, for some buyers who are willing to develop in Hangzhou for a long time, even if the purchase is temporarily restricted, the mind of buying a house in Hangzhou remains unchanged.
"For me, re-qualification is a matter of moving accounts, it doesn't matter. To develop in Hangzhou for a long time, the house will eventually be bought. " Liu Na further stated that even if he continues to buy a house as a non-Hangzhou household registration, he only needs to pay 1 year social security.
Zhangyan believes that this policy upgrade is not necessarily a bad thing for buyers like her: "Many new sites in Hangzhou have been shaken by thousands of people. Now, if you remove some room tickets and really pay social security in Hangzhou for a certain period of time, the chances will be even greater. After half a year, I started to shake the number to buy a house. "
"The biggest beneficiaries of the lottery sorting are middle-aged property buyers who want to settle down in Hangzhou seriously, because they entered Hangzhou early and have the advantage of paying social security years (the social security payment time for registered families who are interested in buying houses starts from 65438+2006 10); Another beneficiary group is high-quality talents. The overall New Deal has basically no impact on them, and at the same time has a further preference for the' high-level talents' with top talent categories. " Yu Xiaoyu pointed out that it is expected that there will be an obvious correction in the whole market in the next three quarters, and the pre-sale certificates of some hot sectors suppressed in the previous period may also be accelerated during this period, which will help to further enhance the implementation effect of the New Deal.