What is the trend of house prices in the next 20 years?

First, make sure. The era of blind skyrocketing housing prices is over. I have never missed buying a house in this decade. There is only the difference between more and less, but now buying a house has become the same investment method as stock trading, because he has begun to lose money. But a wide range of price cuts can only occur in some specific areas. If the first-tier cities are expected to plummet. It's impossible to go down. Why? Because people who think that house prices will plummet. The theoretical basis is population theory. China's population growth is slowing down. The next generation will inherit many houses from home. The desire to buy a house is not strong. So house prices will definitely fall. This view seems reasonable, but it is actually very confusing. Because the population will continue to grow in the next ten years. Even if the population starts to decrease. Not everywhere is decreasing. There must be something that should be reduced, and there must be something that should not be reduced. It has increased in some places. This is because cities are not suitable for life and have a basic population requirement. If the population of a city is too small to meet the minimum population standard, then the local supporting facilities are indispensable facilities in life, such as schools, hospitals, shopping malls and so on. And so on will be reduced. For example, in a city with a population of tens of thousands, it is generally difficult to maintain a third-class first-class hospital. Or a key high school. The high-speed rail will only cover densely populated cities. So once the population size is lower than the livable standard, Will force people who pursue quality of life to leave. Those who stay behind can't support development, so they can't provide enough employment opportunities. Then local facilities and employment will be further reduced. The formation of population outflow accelerated. Why Chengdu, Guiyang, Changde and Weihai? These cities are more livable. Because his population is above the scale. Living facilities are complete. But the pressure is not great. In China, however, the rapid outflow of population is rare. This is because in China, even a small city, there will be a continuous inflow of rural population in the past few decades. A large number of peasants have become citizens. Supported the investment in supporting facilities, but urbanization is almost completed. The proportion of urban population has risen from 30% 20 years ago to 60% now. There are fewer and fewer young people in the countryside. There will be no more fresh blood flowing into small cities. The siphon effect of cities in the future will be stronger and stronger. The stronger the strong, the weaker the weak. Migration from small cities to big cities is inevitable. As soon as the population decreases, the areas with small population will be affected first. The population of small towns is lower than the minimum population standard, and if the population decreases again, it will be abandoned quickly. There are many big and cheap houses in the suburbs or rural areas now. But you won't buy it because we need jobs, medical care and education. And business life. In the past, some places in the United States and Greece gave away houses for free. Those areas that used to be prosperous are now abandoned. On the contrary, the world's metropolises are not affected by population decline. House prices are still rising. Japan's aging problem is the most serious. The population has decreased 1 1 year. But the house price in Tokyo has also increased by 1 1 year. The decrease of population not only affects the housing prices in big cities, but also drives more people to flow from small cities to big cities. Therefore, the population decline is beneficial to the first-tier property market, and the danger is the houses in small towns and counties. In my opinion, houses in county towns and small towns will definitely have a big decline in the future. Because in the past, houses in county towns and small towns were carried by rural population and returning migrant workers. In rural areas, the proportion of the elderly is relatively large. Without young people in the village, it is impossible to continue to inject population into county towns and small towns, and young people from county towns migrate to big cities. So there is little need in the county. In addition, county towns and small towns have sufficient land supply. There is no shortage of houses, and the locals have bought what they need. Foreign investment will not flow to small cities. And the houses in big cities meet the corresponding infrastructure and our needs. With the change of population structure, it will become more and more scarce, so all the places that fall are places you don't want to buy. And the place you want to buy will only continue to rise. This is the house buying up and not buying down. House prices in big cities will certainly continue to rise, while those in small cities and counties will fall. Simply put, you still can't afford a house in a big city, and you still don't need a house in a small city. The state held a symposium on real estate work in July 2020. It is said that real estate should not be regarded as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. Insist on inaction as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. When should it be used as a means to stimulate the economy? Attend this meeting. Ten cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, Ningbo and Changsha have heads of government. People who want to buy houses in these places. You can buy with confidence. The state specifically told them not to grow too fast. You can imagine the potential of these places. I said that house prices in big cities will not fall. The reason is also very simple. Because house prices are related to the safety of funds. The total real estate sector in Xiao Chen and the county is not large, and a slight reduction will not affect the overall situation. But the real estate volume in the first, second and third lines is already very large. The main income of the government and most of the wealth of the people are in it. It involves the confidence of the whole society. The bottom line for falling house prices is 30%. Once more than three are realized, the bank's mortgage assets will shrink. Why? Because everyone buys a house with a down payment of 30%, and 70% is a loan paid by the bank. The bank took your house away when you couldn't repay the loan. Banks will not go bad, but once house prices fall by more than 30%. The collateral in the bank's hand is not worth the mortgage he lent. When the bank's own assets shrank, it had to start reducing its foreign loans. Start lending to enterprises. Enterprises have had a hard time. The capital chain of various industries is very tight. Once the loan stops. The survival of enterprises will face big problems. This will lead to pay cuts and layoffs in many enterprises. To protect themselves. In turn, it is white-collar unemployment that further reduces housing prices and loans. In this way, there will be feedback from entities and house prices. Enter the whirlpool of vicious circle. This is the root cause of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008. To sum up, in my opinion, the future housing price trend is developed cities, and the regional core housing prices are rising steadily. And houses in county towns and small towns will usher in a wave of slump.