While the domestic semiconductor industry is booming, local semiconductor enterprises have also ushered in a bumper harvest. From the perspective of domestic market, according to the statistics of SINR, the total revenue of China design industry in 20021year is estimated to be 47.6 billion US dollars, up by 7.5% year-on-year.
After entering the new year, external conditions such as policies and epidemic situation have entered a stable and predictable medium-term stage. For the domestic semiconductor industry, what are the growth points and concerns of the semiconductor industry in 2022? Xinmou Research is a professional consulting organization focusing on the development of domestic semiconductor industry for many years. There are more than 20 senior analysts who are deeply involved in the overall development of the industry and all aspects of the semiconductor industry chain, involving market, demand and supply, and have formed a great influence in the industry. How do analysts of Core Research think about the development of domestic semiconductor industry in 2022?
In this paper, the analysts of Core Research will focus on the overall development of domestic semiconductor industry in 2022, the development of domestic semiconductor industry in various places and the development of domestic semiconductor industry chain, hoping to help the healthy development of domestic semiconductor industry.
Gu Wenjun, Chief Analyst of Xinmou: Six Focuses of Domestic Chip Manufacturing in 2022
Gu Wenjun, chief analyst of Xinmou Research, believes that overall, the development of domestic semiconductor industry will maintain an upward trend this year. As far as the chip manufacturing field that the industry is most concerned about at present is concerned, the situation of insufficient production capacity of 8-inch chips will continue in 2022, but the production capacity of 12-inch process nodes will gradually improve. Driven by the market demand, the domestic chip manufacturing industry will maintain a double-digit growth of more than 10%. Under this general trend, the following six major industrial changes deserve more attention from the industry:
First, we need to pay close attention to the new actions of the United States to China's semiconductor industry. The contest between China and the United States around the semiconductor industry has been going on. What the industry needs to pay attention to is that in the process of the mid-term elections in 2022, in order to create a tough image, American politicians will once again point the finger at China and lift the big stick of sanctions to relevant enterprises in China. Among them, we need to pay attention to two types of enterprises. One is whether the US sanctions policy will continue to tighten for companies that have been sanctioned, such as SMIC; The other is whether the leading domestic enterprises in the semiconductor industry, including those in the storage field, will receive a "blacklist" warning from the United States.
Second, we need to pay close attention to Japanese restrictions on China in semiconductor materials and equipment. What needs to be warned is that in the process of competition between China and the United States around the semiconductor industry, the United States may exert pressure to unite with its ally Japan to restrict the development of China's semiconductor industry in view of Japan's advantageous areas-semiconductor materials and equipment. The industry should pay attention to the emergence of such signs and make corresponding preparations in case of emergency.
Third, we need to pay attention to joint ventures in the field of chip manufacturing. In recent years, some joint ventures have emerged in the field of chip manufacturing, including those of the United States, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan Province Province of China with overseas capital or enterprises. Special attention should be paid to whether such joint ventures will be listed successfully. If they can achieve this goal, they will provide a sample for joint ventures in the semiconductor field, which will attract more overseas companies to invest in the mainland and establish joint ventures with local governments. Over time, it will form a situation of high-end overseas and low-end domestic, which will cause a double blow to China semiconductor manufacturing enterprises.
Fourth, we should pay attention to the new development trend of new disciplines. 202 1, some unfinished projects were exposed, which attracted the attention of the industry and led to the tightening of some policies. In this case, new topics began to expand and attracted the attention of the industry. The emergence of new subjects has intensified the phenomenon of "grabbing talents". In order to implement talent mining in industrial development, China has made corresponding guidance to the upsurge of "grabbing people". Therefore, in 2022, what needs attention is that domestic policies will further guide the current "barbaric growth" of the semiconductor industry and establish an orderly development in "disorder". At the same time, the industry should also pay attention to whether more new subjects will be born in this process. If the number of new subjects is on the rise, will there be new policies?
Fifth, we need to pay attention to the development of private enterprises in the domestic chip manufacturing field. 202 1 domestic policies in the field of chip manufacturing have been tightened. However, due to the constant market demand, capital's enthusiasm for investment in the field of chip manufacturing remains the same, especially when chip manufacturing enters the stage of 12 inch from 8 inches, which makes private enterprises related to the development of this field pay attention to by industrial capital. Therefore, the development of domestic private chip manufacturing enterprises in 2022, including Zhejiang Fuxin, Guangzhou Zengxin, Hefei Naiwei, Zhuoshengwei and Rongxin Semiconductor, needs more attention from the industry.
Sixth, we need to pay attention to the breakthrough of domestic OEM enterprises in the process of vehicle supervision. 202 1 chip capacity shortage broke out in the field of automobile chips. In this process, many domestic enterprises have also invested in the research of automotive chip manufacturing. It is worth noting that in 2022, domestic OEMs made a breakthrough in automotive chip technology.
Jing Xin, General Manager of Xinmou Research: The development path of semiconductor industry in China is gradually clear.
Jing Xin, general manager of Xinmou Research, said that after years of exploration, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and other regions have become the main highlands for the development of domestic semiconductor industries, among which Beijing has gradually established the spatial layout of Haidian, Daxing Yizhuang and Shunyi; Shanghai is accelerating the formation of a "one body and two wings" semiconductor industry chain development pattern; Guangdong is striving to become the innovative highland of semiconductor industry and the roof of the world of semiconductor industry in China. Historically, these provinces and cities have inherited the traditional advantages of developing semiconductor industry around the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. After being listed as a major industrial layout plan in the 14 th Five-Year Plan, these places also have more room for development in the semiconductor industry.
202 1 is the first year of the 14 th five-year plan, and 2022 will be an important year of implementation and fast lane. As far as the semiconductor field is concerned, in the coming year, leading enterprises will continue to develop in the direction of scale under the trend of expanding production and strive to promote the platform construction of the semiconductor industry; Small and medium-sized enterprises will develop in a new professional direction, increase the added value of the industrial chain and form an important support for the development of the industrial chain.
As a member of the domestic semiconductor industry in China, SMIC takes "striving for the world as the core" as its own responsibility, and provides support for the development of semiconductor industries in many places across the country, providing local services such as industrial planning, investment planning, project optimization and industrial activities.
Wang Xiaolong, research director of Xinmou: Be alert to the potential variables in the development of domestic semiconductor industry.
Wang Xiaolong, research director of Xinmou, thinks that in 2022, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes of listed companies in the domestic semiconductor industry, especially the potential impact of listed companies on the domestic semiconductor industry. 2065438+The scientific and technological innovation board officially opened in July 2009 has ignited a fire for the domestic semiconductor industry. At this point, the science and technology innovation board is about to go through three years, and the core executives who hold the equity of these enterprises have also ushered in a three-year lifting of the ban. With the arrival of this time node, the core executives' handling of these realizable shares is what the industry needs to pay attention to. The flow of these funds may become the basis of a new round of domestic semiconductor development-core executives may use this realized capital to start a business and promote a new development climax of the domestic semiconductor industry.
In addition, there are some variables in the domestic semiconductor industry environment, and the shortage of chips has been alleviated to some extent, but the shortage of individual products and hoarding market behavior will continue for some time.
According to TSMC's calculation, in theory, the supply of automobile chips by foundries can meet the market demand, but the behavior of individual employees hoarding goods and roasted seeds and nuts disrupts the market order. The reason behind this is the long service life of automobile chips. Especially in the boom period of the industry, driven by interests, there will be some employees who take "interests first" as their creed in the automobile chip agency company with agency mode. The hoarding behavior of these employees has increased the risk for the out-of-stock automobile chip market. The bigger crisis is that when the tire 1 manufacturer can't get the goods, the factory's production reduction plan will reduce the demand for chips. When the critical point of supply and demand is reached, once these employees start selling automobile chips, it is likely to impact the business of the original chip factory.
Song changgeng, research director of xinmou: domestic chip design enterprises may be divided.
Song Changgeng, research director of Xinmou, said that in 20021year, China's semiconductor design industry made extraordinary achievements, with the performance of many companies doubling and the overall growth of the industry exceeding 50%. This is not only driven by the increase in demand under the background of domestic substitution, but also driven by the price increase of the whole industry chain caused by tight production capacity. In 2022, domestic chip design enterprises may be divided: with the easing of capacity constraints, enterprises and products recognized by customers will pursue victory, stabilize the supply chain and expand market share; Enterprises that have not yet seized the opportunity may face greater difficulties in supply chain protection and customer development.
As far as the growth market of chip design enterprises is concerned, products such as memory, power devices and MCU will continue to grow at a high speed. Strengthening the direct cooperation between host enterprises and chip enterprises in the field of new energy vehicles will bring new opportunities for domestic chips.
Li Guoqiang, research director of Xinmou: The power integrated circuit market will remain basically stable in 2022.
Li Guoqiang, the research director of Xinmou, believes that the power IC market will remain basically stable in 2022, and there will be no rapid growth in 20021year due to many factors such as global semiconductor industry destocking and market competition.
Xie Ruifeng, Deputy Director of Xinmou Research: The domestic high-end packaging and traditional packaging markets are polarized.
Xie Ruifeng, deputy director of Xinmou Research, believes that the overall scale of the domestic semiconductor packaging and testing industry will continue to rise, mainly due to the high overall prosperity of semiconductors and the huge incremental demand brought about by the rapid development of the domestic design industry. However, the growth rate of semiconductor packaging test will be less than 202 1 in 2022. In 2022, with the overall supply and demand of chips gradually balanced, the supply and demand of packaging and testing capacity will also tend to be balanced. The growth rate of 202 1 includes the component of price increase, and the probability of price increase in 2022 is small.
In the field of advanced packaging, advanced packaging is still hot, and a large amount of capital is invested in advanced packaging, mainly due to the rapid growth of packaging test demand for RF, CIS and memory, and the overall market is still improving. However, traditional packaging may turn to oversupply, and the formation cycle of traditional packaging capacity is short. At present, there has been a certain degree of loose production capacity, and the supply and demand situation may reverse next year.
On the other hand, the strength of packaging and testing equipment and materials enterprises is constantly increasing. The scale and competitiveness of domestic packaging substrate industry have been further enhanced. With the mass production of many domestic projects and the support of packaging and testing manufacturers for domestic materials in this round of shortage, the overall ecological strength of domestic semiconductor packaging and testing industry will continue to improve.
In "Prospects of Domestic Semiconductor Industry in 2022 (Part II)", the core research will discuss in more detail the development of various links in the domestic semiconductor industry chain, including the development analysis and prospects of domestic semiconductor equipment and materials, compound semiconductor industry, EDA industry and other sub-industries, so please pay attention.