"The introduction of the Kaifeng purchase restriction order two years ago was largely due to the fact that after the purchase restriction in Zhengzhou at that time, some demand for buying houses flooded into Kaifeng, which caused great pressure on the local property market. With the large-scale entry of first-line housing enterprises, the value of Kaifeng property market has been continuously raised, and high inventory has become a new problem. " Xiao Li, a salesperson of a real estate in Kaifeng, told the china securities journal reporter.
As for Kaifeng's sales restriction order, it was withdrawn immediately after its release. Experts pointed out that the real estate policy should predict the policy effect, and the adjustment of regulatory policies should be cautious. Maintaining market stability is the core. At the same time, it is necessary to speed up the introduction of talents, develop characteristic industries and promote the healthy development of the local property market.
Regulation follows Zhengzhou's movement
The Kaifeng sales restriction order was issued two years ago, which has a profound policy, regional and industry background.
"The wind in Zhengzhou can't eat the soil in Zhengzhou." 1967 Chen Jun (pseudonym), a native of Qixian County, Kaifeng, who was engaged in real estate sales, summed up the property market in Kaifeng.
With the opening of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng intercity railway (Zhengzhou-Kaifeng) 20 14 and Xu Lan high-speed railway Zhengzhou-Xuzhou section (Xuzhou-Lanzhou, via Kaifeng and Zhengzhou) 20 16, the voice of Zhengzhou-Kaifeng integration is growing.
After the above two traffic trunk lines were operated one after another, Kaifeng property market ushered in a rare golden opportunity period.
"After the opening of the two traffic trunk lines, the time distance between Zhengzhou and Kaifeng is close, and the psychological distance is also close. Some Zhengzhou people are also willing to invest in Kaifeng. Coupled with the stimulation of specific planning levels such as' Central Plains Urban Agglomeration' and' Zhengzhou-Bian Integration', Kaifeng property market is relatively good at 20 16 and 20 17, especially at 20 17. Chen Jun told china securities journal reporter.
According to the data of Kaifeng's 20 16 and 20 17 statistical bulletins, Kaifeng's real estate development investment was 2165438+80 million yuan, up 25.9% year-on-year, of which residential investment was152.9 million yuan, up 25.5% year-on-year. In 20 17, Kaifeng's investment in real estate development was 27.396 billion yuan, up 29.3% year-on-year, of which 20.369 billion yuan was residential, up 33.2%.
More importantly, the speed of 20 17 Kaifeng real estate destocking shows that the property market is generally optimistic. According to the statistical bulletin, in 20 17, the area of commercial housing for sale in Kaifeng was 844,300 square meters, down by 27.8%, of which 679 100 square meters was commercial housing, down by 25.9%.
Therefore, from May 5, 2007 to May 5, 2065438, Kaifeng issued the Notice on Standardizing the Behavior of Real Estate Development Enterprises and Maintaining the Order of the Real Estate Market, requiring all newly-built commercial houses purchased in Kaifeng City (excluding Xiangfu District) to be listed and transferred after three years from the date of obtaining the certificate of immovable property rights. At the same time, the implementation of sales price supervision, in principle, the increase in the first half of the year shall not be higher than 5%, and the increase in one year shall not be higher than 10%.
In this regard, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that "the adjustment of Kaifeng's real estate policy shows that after Zhengzhou's purchase restriction, some demand for house purchase began to enter the Kaifeng market, which will put some pressure on the Kaifeng market. Some housing enterprises took the opportunity to raise prices, which also made the demand for property market regulation in such cities begin to increase. "
China securities journal reporter noticed that on 20 17, a property buyer surnamed Zhang in Kaifeng was quoted as saying, "As the back garden of Zhengzhou, Kaifeng real estate has been rising continuously since the Spring Festival. At the beginning of 20 17, I bought a new house of 1 10 square meter in another building in the west area. A few months later, my neighbor's same house needs to pay more150,000 yuan, and the house price is like a rocket. "
In Chen Jun's view, Kaifeng's policy of 20 17 May 15 followed the pace of Zhengzhou. On May 3, 20 17, the website of Zhengzhou Municipal Government issued the Notice on Further Strengthening Control Measures to Stabilize the Real Estate Market in the whole city, which not only included xinzheng city, Xingyang and zhongmou county in the restricted purchase areas, but also prohibited houses purchased after May 3, 20 17 from being listed and transferred for less than three years from the date of obtaining the real estate ownership certificate.
The bigger background is that throughout 20 17, a round of restrictions on purchases and loans was set off nationwide. Chen Jun said that Zhengzhou, as a world-class international freight hub and the center of the Central Plains urban agglomeration, was put forward between 20 16-20 17. "At that time, Zhengzhou was not limited to purchase, and house prices will definitely continue to rise. Kaifeng is so close to Zhengzhou that it is estimated that there is also some regulatory pressure. "
The housing price trend data of Anjuke shows that the housing price in Zhengzhou was less than 10000 yuan/square meter in June, 2065,438+06, which broke through the average price of 10000 yuan/square meter in September, 2065,438+06, and rose all the way to 17. In the same period, the house price in Kaifeng also rose from about 4,500 yuan/square meter to about 6,500 yuan/square meter. "This is already a good time for Kaifeng to rise." Chen Jun said.
Neglected land circulation link
It is normal for some real estate agents in Kaifeng to "cancel the sale restriction" a few days ago.
"After all, it didn't sell very well this year." Chen Jun said frankly. Like Xiao Li, several first-line brands in Jun Chen are currently engaged in brokerage business in local real estate. "From the perspective of passenger flow, it is unusual for a sales office to have dozens of people looking at the house a day. If there are activities or promotions, people will concentrate. "
Kerui report shows that since 20 19, the proportion of customers in suburban counties has increased to about 40%, and the proportion of customers in Kaifeng city has dropped to 20%, and the number of Zhengzhou investors has also decreased significantly due to the narrowing of the price difference between Kaifeng and Zhengzhou. Ke Rui predicted that the Zhengzhou market would pick up to some extent in April and May of 20 19, which aggravated the downturn of Kaifeng market. Many projects have only achieved 20% to 30% of the annual target, and it is estimated that only about 60% of the annual target can be achieved.
"The entanglement of Kaifeng's property market policy is actually the epitome of local land transfer from turmoil to low tide." In an interview, a national housing enterprise from Henan Province described the entrepreneurial process of housing enterprises in Kaifeng property market.
From 20 16, foreign enterprises headed by Country Garden and Evergrande settled in Kaifeng, and then the speed of national real estate brands entering Kaifeng accelerated. 20 17 12, Vanke cooperated with local real estate enterprises to develop Kaifeng Qingming Shanghe City and build a small town of 2 1 km2 in Song Wenhua. In the first year of 20 18, Poly Real Estate announced that it had acquired a plot on the north side of Fuxing Avenue in Longting District of Kaifeng City with an area of about 264,000 square meters for 65.438+73 billion yuan.
The accelerated entry of housing enterprises into the market also boosted the value of Kaifeng property market. According to the report of Ke Rui, in the past two years, the amount of land sold in Kaifeng was too large, which led to the serious inventory problem at present. In the three years with the highest market turnover (20 16-20 18), the average annual market capacity is about16 billion yuan, but at present, the planned sales volume of developers in the market has reached 24 billion yuan.
The insiders believe that the main problem faced by Kaifeng market projects at present lies in the weak purchasing power of customers. Kaifeng is a city with a population outflow, and the possibility of population upward in the short term is not high. The willingness to buy a house is not strong, and the income level is limited, so it is difficult to follow up.
Has the policy toolbox bottomed out?
Kaifeng withdrew its decision to "cancel the sales restriction", saying that it did not conduct sufficient market research and demonstration, and lacked sufficient pre-judgment and evaluation of the possible market impact.
Compared with the above-mentioned local property market downturn, the policy voice of "can be relaxed" is not without in the local area.
The above-mentioned housing enterprises believe that since 20 17, restricted sales, restricted purchases and differentiated credit are the core of the control policy toolbox. "If all localities want to' loosen', canceling the restrictions on sales and purchases should be the last consideration."
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the real estate policy should predict the effect of the policy, and stability is the trend, and easing and tightening coexist. "Housing without speculation" is still the main axis of the smooth operation of the current real estate market, and the expectation of tightening local regulation still exists.
Zhang Dawei believes that regulation is not a child's play, and the adjustment of real estate regulation policies should be cautious. The above-mentioned housing enterprises suggest that accelerating the introduction of talents and developing characteristic industries are the key to the healthy development of the local property market.
Two months after 20 17 "sales restriction order" was issued, Kaifeng city also issued a policy to attract talents. In this "Opinions on Implementing the Talent Plan of the Capital of the Song Dynasty", Kaifeng City has shown unprecedented ambition: based on the development needs of leading industries and strategic emerging industries in our city, vigorously implement the talent plan of the Capital of the Song Dynasty, and strive to introduce 65,438+00 academicians or top talents at a considerable level in five to 65,438+00 years, including 65,438.
2018 June 5438+00 local media said that since the implementation of the document "Opinions on Implementing the Talents Plan in Liangdu", Kaifeng has signed a comprehensive cooperation strategic framework agreement with China Agricultural University, Tsinghua University, Tianjin University, China Renmin University and other 15 universities (research institutes), and introduced a number of emerging institutions led by scientists.
"While the iron is hot, hard. Look at Zhengzhou, once called a big county. Now, from the perspective of housing price gap, (and Kaifeng) is getting bigger and bigger. " Chen sighed.