What will happen to steel prices in 2022?
It is less likely that steel prices will plummet in 2022. However, since the end of 20021May, steel prices have experienced a sharp rise and fall. The trend of steel prices in 2022 depends on the following main factors:
1. Factor 1
It is this demand that reflects the rational callback after the previous crazy surge, and also releases the panic in the market to some extent. However, the steel market will eventually return to reasonable demand, whether it is inflation caused by the sharp depreciation of the US dollar or the suspension of production and production in the context of domestic carbon neutrality.
2. Factor 2
When the rainy season comes in the south in June, the steel market will enter the off-season and the demand will gradually decrease.
Will the price of building materials be reduced in 2022? The details of steel prices in 2022 will bring you here. As can be seen from the above analysis, the price of decoration materials is likely to rise in 2022, and some logistics and supporting furniture are also rising. Friends who are ready to decorate should also plan or decorate as soon as possible when purchasing decoration materials.
3. Factor 3
In 2022, due to the Beijing Winter Olympics in February, it was a wave of good news for the domestic steel industry. Prices should rise and fall steadily, but it is not an opportunity for the steel industry to turn things around.
The 2022 Winter Olympics will also attract huge investment. However, on the one hand, the cake for the Winter Olympics is much smaller, and on the other hand, this cake has been partially made before 2008 (for example, the 12 stadium needed for the Winter Olympics, 1 1 is already ready-made, and it is only necessary to build a new national speed skating hall. ), so this investment is much less than in 2008.
Secondly, the 2022 Winter Olympics put forward strict requirements for the environment of the host city. At present, iron and steel enterprises are almost big polluters. Even if there is no waste discharge on the surface, if you look up on a sunny day, you will find that there is almost an inverted dust bowl near the steel plant. Officials say that the hosting of the 2022 Winter Olympics will realize environmental protection in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, which will force the steel industry to upgrade and greatly promote the improvement of steel plants from extensive pollution to effective governance.
Therefore, the 2022 Winter Olympics is both an opportunity and a challenge for the steel industry in this respect: environmental protection forces industrial upgrading and eliminates backward production capacity, which is conducive to the sound development of the steel industry; But for those employees who are in backward production capacity, unemployment may be close at hand, and many large and medium-sized enterprises make no difference when the capital flow is not good.
This is by no means an opportunity for the steel industry to rise. At present, there are two main dilemmas in the steel industry. First, there is a serious overcapacity and imbalance. The price of upstream raw iron ore is high, and the price of downstream products is low (it is said that the rebar for construction has dropped to about 2 100 yuan/ton, and the price of cabbage in most vegetable wholesale markets exceeds this price), and the profit margin is meager (that is, Pugang has lost money); Second, the capital flow is not smooth. If steel enterprises are not well managed, it will be GG if they encounter bank loans again. In any case, the 2022 Winter Olympics is not an opportunity for the steel industry to rise (besides, the steel industry has already risen, and now it seems to be going downhill), and it can at most revive the steel industry.
4. Factor 4
This website may not consider other factors. Please leave a message below to discuss.
Bank of America lowered its iron concentrate price forecast for 2022 to 965,438+0 USD/ton.
The global research team of Bank of America lowered its iron concentrate price forecast by 45% to US$ 965,438+0 per ton in 2022 (lower than the previous forecast of US$ 65,438+065 per ton), mainly because China, one of the largest demand countries, restricted steel production to reduce emissions, which led to a significant reduction in demand.
This year, Bank of America has lowered its price forecast from $65,438+088 to $65,438+057 per ton.
Bank of America analysts wrote in a research report to customers: "China's steel production reduction policy has led to an excess iron ore market. Unless this policy is changed, we can't see any reason not to let iron ore trade to the marginal cost (about 80 US dollars/ton), especially when the "blue sky" policy of the China Winter Olympics in early 2022 is imminent. "
In addition, the recent guidelines of China's Ministry of Environment "indicate that the authorities will continue to pay attention to emissions before next year's Olympic Games."
Related to this, steel production is expected to be weak again in 2022. Of course, this includes the possibility of a rebound in steel production after the Olympic Games, but iron ore prices will remain under pressure until then.
Bank of America predicts that the global iron ore market "may have a surplus" next year. "Therefore, we think that the price of iron ore may fall to $70/ton again in the next few months."
What is the price trend of building materials in 2022? Will the price increase?
Since the beginning of this year, China's commodity prices have remained high, and the prices of building materials industry have risen in an all-round way. For example, the prices of ceramics, steel and waterproof coatings have been rising recently. So, what is the price trend of building materials in 2022? Will the price increase?
First, what is the price increase of the whole building materials industry?
1. Reason 1: raw material price adjustment.
107, 65438, Wanhua Chemical, a large raw material supplier, issued a notice of price adjustment, saying that the price increase was officially implemented on108. On the first day after the National Day, the price of steel rose by 80- 100 yuan per ton, and that of PVC materials rose by 2.76%, even exceeding the highest price of 80-12000 yuan per ton. In addition, a wave of lighting enterprises also issued a notice to raise the price from 10 to 1. At the same time, chip and power supply enterprises in the lighting industry chain have also issued price increase letters.
2. Reason 2: Dual control of energy consumption.
At the end of September, affected by power cuts and production stoppages in many places across the country, building materials and home furnishing enterprises such as ceramics, coatings, waterproofing, lighting and customized homes also ushered in a new wave of price increases.
3. Reason 3: Supply and demand
202 1, the steel market trend was affected by the epidemic. Like a roller coaster, steel prices plummeted at the beginning of the year. It rose sharply in the third and fourth quarters, refreshing the climax in recent years. China's steel production and consumption have increased.
2. What is the price trend of building materials in 2022?
It is estimated that the price of building materials will run at a high level in 2022, but it is still inconclusive. It can be predicted that the skyrocketing price will remain the focus of the whole industry for some time to come. The following are the latest prices of the building materials industry brought by the soil flow in Bian Xiao:
1. Latest price of steel
For example, the price of rebar has risen to 5,495 yuan/ton, 2,000 yuan/ton higher than the price at the beginning of the year, an increase of more than 50%. The average price of tertiary seismic rebar for 20mm building is 5392 yuan/ton. The average price of 4.75mm hot rolled coil is 5797 yuan/ton.
2. The latest price of ceramics
In the past, the price increase of ceramic tiles has been a slight increase of 1 20: 50. However, in this round of price increase, many enterprises have directly increased by 10%, and the price increase range is also in the range from 2 yuan/film to 3 yuan/film.
3. The latest price of waterproof coating
Many coating companies such as Nippon, Jiu Nuo, Maydos, Bauhinia, and Yashi Paint, and waterproof companies such as Dongfang Yuhong, Yashi Chuangneng, Alpha Waterproofing, and Century Hongyu adjusted their prices again, with the highest increase of 25%. Among them, since February this year, Oriental Yuhong, a waterproof head enterprise, has issued a price increase letter for the third time.
4. The latest price of plate
Board enterprises such as Daya Wood, Shuiyun Tianke, Ning Feng, etc. It is announced that the price of particleboard products will increase from 50 yuan /m3 to 60 yuan/m3 from August.
3. Will building materials increase in price in 2022?
Whether the price of building materials industry will rise next year depends on market dynamics and domestic policies. If the state takes control, the price will fall, but in the second half of 20021,the building materials industry will mainly rise, because in the second half of the year, the production of enterprises will decrease, and the raw materials will rise again, so it is difficult for prices to fall. It is a wise choice for people who decorate their houses in the first half of the year. With the rising of materials, the cost of decoration is also increasing.
Generally speaking, the price increase of building materials industry is mainly due to the influence of the adjustment of raw material prices and the dual control of energy consumption. It is expected that the price trend of building materials will mainly increase in 2022.
Ministry of Commerce issues important report: Forecast the price trend of important mineral products from 20021to 2022?
The Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (20021Spring) jointly released by the Comprehensive Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation on Wednesday pointed out that looking forward to the whole year of 2002/KLOC-0, driven by the popularization of vaccines, the relaxation of epidemic prevention restrictions and the sustained recovery of the global economy, it is expected that the market demand will recover steadily during 2002/KLOC-0, and the commodity prices will remain firm.
In terms of steel, the report pointed out that with the sustained recovery of the real economy in various countries, industrial production has basically resumed, steel market demand is strong, and social stocks have continued to decline, pushing up steel prices. In May, CRU international steel price index rose to 304.6, up 80. 1% year-on-year, while steel price indexes in North America, Europe and Asia rose 128. 1%, 109.0% and 55.8% respectively. The World Iron and Steel Association predicts that the global steel demand will increase by 40.1%in 20021year to17.95 million tons. The $2 trillion large-scale infrastructure construction plan has effectively boosted overseas steel demand and will push steel prices to continue to rise. At the same time, under the background of "carbon neutrality", the steel industry has been increasing its efforts to limit production. The pattern of tight supply has emerged, and it is expected that steel prices will continue to rise.
Driven by the global economy and the recovery of steel production, iron ore prices remained firm. Under the background of "carbon neutrality", the limited output of crude steel will depress the price of iron ore. ? It is expected that the iron ore market will maintain a tight supply and demand pattern in the short term, and the price will remain above 100 USD/ton. In the second half of the year, with the new capacity of the four major mines, the price of iron ore will decline.
As for non-ferrous metals, the report believes that with the acceleration of the pace of resumption of work and production in various countries, the market demand for non-ferrous metals is strong. The prices of non-ferrous metals generally rose.
The demand for copper has expanded. Since the second half of 2020, with the accelerated development of construction and manufacturing in various countries, the demand for copper market has gradually increased, but the new capacity of copper mines is limited, and the shortage situation has obviously expanded in the short term. According to the balance data of supply and demand of World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS), the global copper supply gap will reach 139438+00000 tons in 2020. At the end of 20021May, the price of copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) reached 10 159.5 USD/ton, up 90.5% year-on-year. Since April 5, Chile, the largest copper producer, has closed its border to deal with the epidemic under the impetus of market tension. The upward trend of copper prices has been further strengthened.
Aluminum supply is tight. On the demand side, countries have strong demand for aluminum in infrastructure real estate, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, rail transit and other fields. Citigroup predicts that the global aluminum demand will increase by 6% in 20021year. On the supply side, due to the carbon-neutral policy, the release of new electrolytic aluminum production capacity was blocked. ? It is expected that the shortage of supply will push up the price of aluminum.
Nickel supply is loose. There is a strong demand for nickel in stainless steel and new energy automobile industries, but due to capacity expansion and technological upgrading, there is a strong expectation of oversupply in the nickel market. The International Nickel Research Organization (INSG) predicts that the global crude nickel output will reach 2.586 million tons in 20021year, up 6.2% year-on-year. Indonesia's new production capacity continued to be released. In March, Qingshan Holdings, a leading domestic stainless steel enterprise, indirectly announced the successful trial production of its high matte nickel production line and announced the three-year expansion plan, which led to the nickel price falling by nearly 15% for two consecutive days. ? The loose supply in the nickel market is expected to increase, and the upward momentum of prices is insufficient.
Building raw materials are rising! It is expected that the upward trend will continue in 2022.
After the 11th holiday, everyone was greeted with ups and downs. The price of steel exceeded 6000 yuan/ton, and the increase per ton was between 80 yuan and 100 yuan. PVC materials rose by 2.76%, even exceeding 12000 yuan/ton; Some raw materials are "abundant but out of stock" ...
Affected by the rising prices of raw materials and various restrictions on production, electricity and energy, building materials enterprises have also ushered in a new wave of price increases. The tide of price increase is getting worse.
For the continuous rise of materials after the National Day, many people think that this is just the beginning. With the subsequent "material inflation" and "supplier price increase and production suspension"; "Power consumption at the wrong peak, open for 3 days and stop for 4 days"; "The delivery period will be longer and longer, and the inflation will be more and more serious", and the price will be higher and higher.
By building the price index of Huizhuyun, an Internet platform, we can see that this wave of price increase has already started, and then uncontrollable factors such as epidemic situation, freight and extreme weather will appear, and the survival strength of enterprises will be further tested.
There is no definite proof about the topic of "whether the skyrocketing prices will last until 2022". It can be predicted that the skyrocketing price will remain the focus of the whole industry for some time to come, and will affect all walks of life.
In 2022, the global imbalance between steel supply and demand will reappear.
According to foreign media reports, Moody's, an international credit rating agency, said that as the growth momentum of commodity prices gradually fades before 2022, the prospects of global metals and mining industries are turning to stability.
It is estimated that by the middle of 2022, the EBITDA of this industry will increase by about 8%, because the economic recovery supports the demand for iron ore, steel and coal.
It is estimated that after 2022, the iron ore price will gradually move towards the level of 20 16-65438+70-80 USD/ton in 2009. The tight supply of iron ore will keep the price above the historical standard before 2022, but the price has dropped sharply from the previous peak in 20021at the beginning of the year, and the supply has increased and the demand has decreased. Coal prices will remain relatively high, but with the easing of supply problems, this problem will disappear.
At the same time, there will be an imbalance between global supply and demand in 2022, and the price will gradually fall back to the historical average level from the abnormal high of 202 1. As buyers replenish their stocks and reduce their expenses, demand will drop. With the improvement of productivity and the production of new capacity in other parts of the world, the supply of steel will continue to increase. For more information about ferrosilicon, ferrosilicon and ferrochromium, please continue to pay attention to the steel industry information network-Changzhou Precision Steel Tube Blog Network.
abstract
Steel prices are likely to fall in 2022, and many people pay more attention to steel because many people have made investments in this area.
1.Will steel fall in 2022?
If you are interested in this information, you can actually go to official website to search, but in 2022, steel will still fall to a great extent. The rational callback after the previous crazy surge has released the panic in the market to some extent. However, the steel market will eventually return to reasonable demand, whether it is inflation caused by the sharp depreciation of the US dollar or the suspension of production and production in the context of domestic carbon neutrality. However, at present, steel will still fall by a large margin, and it may not rise sharply for a long time.
Second, why is this happening?
Here is also a brief introduction to why steel will fall. In fact, the price of steel will also be affected by the market and government policies, and the steel market will have a certain off-season. At this time, due to the weather, the demand for steel is not so high, so the price of steel will not rise, but will drop rapidly. Under the background of carbon dioxide emission peak and carbon neutrality, with the introduction of export tax policies related to the steel industry, the supporting policies for emission reduction and production reduction in the market may come to an end. It is expected that steel production will continue to increase, but the growth slope will continue to slow down.
Third, the conclusion
Many people are interested in this information because everyone wants to make the right investment in the stock market. Therefore, you can also go to official website for information or consult relevant institutions. In a word, we definitely need to master this information, otherwise we may make the wrong choice in the market, which is not good for you. And now many people want to make money, but making money is not an easy task.
The above information and data come from "Changzhou Precision Steel Tube Blog Network" for reference only.