According to the records, the iron ore price rose by 18.6% in 2004, by 710.5% in 2005, by 19% in 2006 and by 9.5% in 2007. In 2008, the price of iron ore has been approved by foreign steel mills: the international benchmark price of iron ore will increase by 65% on the basis of 2007. Undoubtedly, even in terms of fine ore alone, Rio Tinto's increase of 79.88% this year is more than any previous year. Therefore, in recent years, steel prices have gradually increased. The National Development and Reform Commission announced that since June 20th, 2008, the price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 1.000 yuan per ton, and the price of aviation kerosene will increase by 1.500 yuan. Since July 1 day, 2008, the national sales electricity price has increased by 2.5 points per kWh on average. The rising prices of coal, electricity, oil and other energy sources have further increased the prices of building materials such as steel, cement and bricks. While the price of building materials is rising, the labor cost is also rising. Take the ordinary workers in Binzhou, Shandong Province as an example. Four years ago, the daily salary was only from 20 yuan to 30 yuan, but now it is from 60 yuan to 80 yuan. What is the impact of rising construction costs on housing prices? The author believes that due to the different composition of urban and rural housing prices, the impact on residents in different areas of the town is also different. The following are the impact analysis of agricultural housing and urban residential housing respectively. I. Analysis of Rural Dwellings 1. The influence of land, various taxes and profits The land used for building houses in rural areas becomes the homestead. The right to use homestead refers to the right to use collective land allocated to its members for building houses with the approval of rural collective economic organizations according to law. The holder of the right to use the homestead enjoys the right of possession, use, income and limited disposition, that is, the holder has the right to use the land to build houses and ancillary facilities, and transfer the houses together with the homestead (the right to use the houses and homestead should be transferred to the members of the collective economic organizations who meet the conditions for applying for the homestead) and rent it out. However, rural villagers can only own one homestead, and its area shall not exceed the standards set by provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government. Because the acquisition of the right to use the homestead is free and welfare. So farmers don't have to worry about the impact of land prices and various taxes. Of course, for farmers to build their own houses, there will be no profit impact. 2. The impact of construction cost The construction cost of rural housing is mainly composed of building materials and labor (contracting fees). Building materials have been climbing all the way in recent years, and labor costs have also increased several times. Taking Dayang Village, Boxing County, Binzhou District, Shandong Province as an example, this paper explains the growth of housing construction cost in recent five years. In recent years, villagers in this village have built houses similar to this quadrangle, as shown in the picture. The general procedure for building houses in rural areas is that the villagers first apply to the villagers' committee for the homestead (the plot must meet the requirements of the village construction planning) and obtain the homestead after approval by the township government; Then the villagers handed the house construction project to a small rural contractor, who was in charge of the whole project, and the contractor hired professional craftsmen (masons, carpenters, etc.). ) and coolies to carry out specific construction; The owner is responsible for purchasing materials and supervising the construction. The total project cost (project contracting fee and building materials fee) is shown in the following table, which has quadrupled since 2003, and the total amount exceeds 65,438+10,000 yuan. Table 3. Conclusion Although the housing cost of rural residents does not include land price and various taxes and fees, the total construction cost has quadrupled since 2003. Compared with the generally low income of farmers, 10 million yuan is an astronomical figure, and many farmers complain that "the more they save, the more they can't afford to buy a house". At present, the rising construction cost caused by the rising prices of building materials and labor costs has a great impact on the construction of farmers' self-built housing. Second, the analysis of urban housing 1. Research on the relationship between house price and land price As far as commercial housing is concerned, the most influential factor on real estate is land price, followed by cement and steel. House price is composed of the cost and profit of the developer, and it is also a property right price. However, in addition to demand, there is also a supply price problem. Because the supply of real estate is different from the simple land supply, it is a production process, and it needs to compensate various expenses in the production process through the sales price, so as to obtain reasonable profits to maintain the reproduction process. As the supply price, the house price is not only the price that the buyer is willing to buy, but also the price that the seller is willing to sell.
In the market mechanism, people's demand for housing (including real demand and speculative demand) determines the level of housing prices, and the level of housing prices determines the level of land prices. The land price formed under the auction mechanism of "the highest bidder wins" is determined by the current house price and the developer's expectation of the future house price. When the house price is expected to rise, the land price will inevitably rise, on the contrary, the land price will inevitably fall. Land price is an important part of house price, which has certain influence on the formation of house price, but this influence is not decisive. The factor that determines the house price is the market demand rather than the cost. 2. The impact of the project cost. Like rural housing, the construction cost will rise with the rise of building materials price, labor cost and energy price. 3. The historical process of the relationship between supply and demand proves that the invisible hand of market economy just uses price mechanism to adjust the balance between supply and demand. If supply exceeds demand, prices will rise, profit margins will increase, and more investment will be attracted to increase supply and balance demand; After the price is stable, if the investment is increased, the price will fall, the profit margin will be reduced, and the investment transfer and supply will fall. One by one to achieve the role of regulation. Fan Gang, a famous economist, made the following statement at the "Sina Leju Innovation Summit" on March 25th, 2008: The real estate market in China has experienced some rapid growth in the past two years due to various other reasons, and it is still a market with great potential and bright prospects. Judging from the urbanization process in China, the process of China farmers entering the city is far from over. China has just completed less than half of its urbanization, and there is still huge room for urban development. This process determines the real estate market in China. The improvement of people's living conditions in China will be an important market for China's economic development in the next few decades or even hundreds of years, and it will also be an important economic growth point in China. For a long time, the relationship between supply and demand still dominates the real estate market in China. In small and medium-sized cities, there is little rigid demand and house prices are not very high; In big cities, real estate prices are affected by excess liquidity and rigid demand, and house prices are already high. The influence of market speculation is the same as that of the stock market. This is an asset market, and it is fear and greed that bring people to this market. Because of fear and greed, this market will always go up when it goes up, and it will also go down when it falls. It conforms to the characteristics of chasing up and killing down. In big cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, real estate prices are greatly affected by speculation. It is difficult to explain the performance of current house price fluctuation with cost theory, house price-income ratio theory and house price-rent ratio theory. In 2007, house prices rose year by year, month by month, but almost every day. Some people define the house price as the price of seafood. The price of seafood is one day, which is called the current price, and there is no price tag. From the consumer's point of view, it is obvious that the matter of buying real estate has changed from "doing and not doing" in the past to "being able and unable". In other words, I think this cup 10 yuan is too expensive to buy; But now this cup has become10 million, not that I don't want to buy it, but that I can't afford it. It has far exceeded the affordability of most residents, the ratio of house price to income has greatly increased, and there has been a bubble in the real estate market. For small and medium-sized cities, the liquidity is small, the demand is not very strong, and there is not much room for speculation. When the house only reflects the living function, the price and value will not differ much. 5. Conclusion There are many factors that affect the house price. At present, the group most affected by housing prices is the ordinary working class, and their greatest concern is that the land cost of ordinary houses is much higher than the cost of building materials. Building materials, land, surrounding development environment and market purchasing power all determine the house price, that is to say, the increase of building materials and labor costs will not have much impact on the price of commercial housing in the market. Three. Conclusion The rising construction cost has a great influence on rural housing and housing prices in cities, especially in large and medium-sized cities, but it cannot play a leading role. Of course, urban housing prices are already high, but not because of the impact of construction costs, but because of the comprehensive impact of land prices, supply and demand, speculation and other factors.
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