The so-called real estate bubble refers to the sudden rise in the price of an asset in the process of continuous trading, and the price seriously deviates from the value. At this time, the economy is full of currency bubbles that cannot reflect material wealth. When the asset price rises to an unbearable level, it will inevitably plummet, as if the bubble burst and the economy began to turn from prosperity to recession. This is the so-called "bubble economy". The two characteristics of bubble economy are: the supply and demand of commodities are seriously unbalanced, and the demand is far greater than the supply; Speculative trading atmosphere is very strong. The real estate bubble is a kind of bubble, and it is a bubble economy with real estate as the carrier. It refers to the serious deviation between real estate price and value caused by real estate speculation, and the market price is divorced from the support of actual users. The earliest real estate bubble that can be verified is the Florida real estate bubble from 1923 to 1926. This frenzy of real estate speculation once triggered the collapse of Wall Street stock market, and led to the global economic crisis led by the United States in the 1930s, which eventually led to the outbreak of World War II. Japan's land price bubble, which began to accumulate in the 1970s and burst in the early 1990s, is the longest-lasting real estate bubble in history. From the bursting of the land price bubble of 199 1 to now, Japan's economy has never been out of the shadow of depression, and even compared to another "defeat" of Japan after World War II.
The main features of the real estate bubble are:
1. The real estate bubble is a form of real estate price fluctuation;
2. The real estate bubble has the characteristics of ups and downs, with a large range;
3. The real estate bubble is not continuous, and there is no stable cycle and frequency;
4. The real estate bubble is mainly caused by speculation in the real estate economic system and the sharp increase of money supply in the short to medium term.
The judgment of real estate bubble is inconclusive, and it is actually very difficult to accurately judge the degree of real estate bubble at any given time. Generally can be judged from the following indicators or conditions:
(1) Whether the whole economy is overheated. If the whole economy is overheated, it can be believed that the real estate industry will be overheated because of its internal relationship.
(2) Investment growth rate. When the growth of investment in real estate development is obviously higher than the economic growth rate, for example, twice the economic growth rate, there is a danger of bubble.
(3) Commercial housing is vacant. Generally, when the vacancy rate reaches 10%, it is a sign that the real estate industry is overheating.
In addition to these commonly used standards, people usually judge whether house prices keep rising, whether the price of commercial housing keeps pace with the growth of residents' income, whether the growth rate of land development keeps rising, whether the debt ratio of real estate developers generally keeps rising, and the relative gap between the actual price and the theoretical price of house prices.
The real estate bubble will burst to a certain extent, and once it bursts, it will inevitably bring disastrous consequences to the economy. Its influence is very extensive, because the real estate industry is highly related. Therefore, governments all over the world regard monitoring the real estate bubble as one of the important contents of macro-control.