In less than two years, the real estate industry has experienced the baptism of ice and fire. How many times the house price has doubled is by no means something that can be calculated by the Bureau of Statistics. The situation of fighting but not falling has made many bulls place a lot of hopes on the real estate industry. Even if the real estate market does not rise, at least it will not suppress the index viciously, right?
This statement is poor!
The real estate industry cannot be defeated, because it is not the time to be defeated. Banks and real estate are like policemen and thieves handcuffed together. They dare not shoot rashly before the handcuffs are untied, but if the handcuffs are untied or the thief is about to detonate the atomic bomb, sniper bullets will come like rain.
The real estate industry is going to die sooner or later. Because the seven sins of him need redemption.
One of the original sins: the pain of landless peasants, and many extreme events and social stability problems caused by it.
The second original sin: cultivated land is eroded, food security is hidden, and the price of agricultural products is soaring. From this perspective, the real estate industry is definitely an industry that "creates future generations". To make an extreme assumption, if the government does not control the development scale of the real estate industry, as long as the United States prints enough dollars at no cost and buys houses from real estate developers in China indefinitely, theoretically all the land in China can be turned into uninhabited houses. After that, food was the deadliest weapon to attack China. Even if people don't attack you, they will starve themselves to death.
The third original sin: the source of local government corruption and the source of laziness. Too many interests, too many simple opportunities to make money, constitute the mentality of local governments to viciously tap successor resources, sell land crazily, and not strive for progress. The real estate industry has become the economic opium of local governments, resulting in a strong sense of dependence. If you don't quit, you will have a problem. With the magic weapon and self-interest that real estate accounts for more than10% of GDP, who will go to other places to struggle for industrial economy? After several years of real estate boom, when the bottle was pulled down, the development ability of local economy degenerated to the level of baby.
The fourth original sin: the despair of a generation. After 80 s and 90 s, it originally belonged to the sun at eight or nine o'clock in the morning. But we are overwhelmed by a house and can't turn over again. How can we bear the "hope" of the country and the nation "pinned on you"? Real estate makes a generation desperate and guilty!
The fifth original sin: wasting resources. Look at how many dark windows there are in the city at night! These reinforced concrete components, which were originally warm homes for human beings, are now alienated into commodities against inflation, even with the property of money, and become tools for people to exploit others. And these empty houses, which should be occupied by people, also waste a lot of land, resources, energy, materials and labor productivity. The whole thing of "building a house" has been completely distorted. "There are thousands of spacious buildings" is not to "protect the poor in the world from laughing", but to "protect the landlords in the world from renting" and "protect the rich in the world from inflation". It is understandable to collect rent to prevent inflation, but for the whole country and society, resources are greatly wasted and the overall balance is destroyed.
Original Sin 6: The real estate bubble constitutes an opportunity for foreign capital to rob the middle class in China, thus creating social unrest. Although the bubble has not burst, from the history of other countries, this kind of risk is getting bigger and bigger. Once the bubble bursts, the damage to China will be incalculable.
The seventh original sin: permanently widening the gap between the rich and the poor, which is unbearable for social stability. Overdraft the future consumption power of house slaves and compress the future economic development space. Some people describe the GDP formed by the real estate industry as "the GDP of national subjugation", which I think is not excessive.
For the above reasons, the demise of the real estate industry is only a matter of time. The new Twelfth Five-Year Plan removes the title of "pillar industry" in the real estate industry and plans new pillar industries such as new energy, which also indicates that this industry will begin to enter a recession cycle; The investment next year is 1.3 trillion, and the construction of100000 sets of affordable housing will be started soon; "Real estate tax" will be introduced one after another after the pilot, which is a substitute for local government economic opium and will be very popular. With a few swords hanging over your head, do you dare to expect the real estate industry to push the stock market up?
I didn't want to uncover the mystery of the time when house prices fell. However, after reading the comments of bloggers, I feel that those who support it seem to have no money and those who oppose it seem to have knowledge. Then communicate with these knowledgeable friends.
First of all, it is stated that there is no other political or commercial purpose to discuss this issue, just to safeguard the intellectual dignity of individuals.
Secondly, I explained that I helped a local government to sell land in 2003. Have a say in the real estate industry.
Again, I bought a house in Sanya, Hainan at the beginning of 2009, and the price was 16000, which increased nearly fourfold in less than one year. Hundreds of friends have heard my advice on buying a house after the Spring Festival in 2009. On April 14, 2009, Xu Wensheng and I were interviewed by Tencent's "Managing E-Hall" program, and we talked in detail about the reasons and views of the skyrocketing housing prices. You can search online.
To sum up the opposition in the blog, there are roughly the following reasons:
The first reason-managers will not give up their own interests!
The second reason-housing prices fall, the economy will collapse, people with houses will make trouble, and the consequences will be more serious!
The third reason-the hard cost of land can't come down.
The fourth reason-rigid demand is too strong, too much money, and ordinary people can afford it.
The fifth reason-you guys, you are not in the real estate circle at all, you know a P-earning click-through rate. The previous awesome xxx was wrong. History has proved this. ...
The sixth reason-the word attack on the internet, is cost-free, and some people are addicted to swearing.
Answer the first reason-whether managers will give up the benefits brought by the real estate industry.
Looking around the world, which country puts 25% of its direct GDP on the real estate industry? How dangerous are the consequences of this? Is it sustainable?
People will not object to pinning 90% of GDP on oil, but the country's other economic capabilities are basically paralyzed. Society and people's self-motivation and ability to do things are alienated. Once the oil resources are exhausted, it will be disastrous, but the consequences may take decades to hundreds of years.
But how many real estate resources can be tapped in China?
The most important paragraph of Xu's right speech has been deleted from the internet. In one year, I sold my land for three years! This is not sustainable.
Even if the city can expand to the surrounding villages endlessly, what is the most important bottleneck to limit the size of the city? Water resources! If there is not enough water, the city can't develop any more. Everything else can be transported, only water is the hardest!
Another resource is the secondary bottleneck-roads! With the unlimited expansion of urban population, roads will become bottlenecks, and when they are blocked to the limit, the functions of cities will be paralyzed. Our first-tier cities have basically reached the stage of "arteriosclerosis".
Resources are insufficient, and they are bound by high prices. This has been debated in the real estate industry. Young people don't have to hang out in Beijing and Shanghai, but a city that lacks young people in 10 years will be full of old men and women, or rich old men and women who can eat without working. Is such a city competitive?
For the sake of high housing prices and angering a generation, this is a balance between economy and politics. When the weight of political factors gradually exceeds the weight of economic factors, the balance of decision-making will find its own balance again.
Developing real estate is for the sake of economy, but it is not sustainable. If you don't develop real estate, you can get money, which is sustainable and can resolve the grievances of young people. Will managers continue to insist on high housing prices?
There are ways to stop real estate and get money-what is the property tax for? Continue to make money, balance the rich and the poor, and resolve social contradictions.
Resource exhaustion-land resources plus water resources and road resources; Exhaustion of purchasing power-people's money; Exhausted demand-housing surplus; Conscience-managers can't stand the pressure; Political needs-making money will hurt stability ... Either way, managers will give up the high housing price policy. If the business of selling land becomes meager profit because of the quantity of land, the manager will give up.
Who can guarantee that none of the above reasons will happen in n years?
Houses in China are basically built on cultivated land. The land area of China is three times that of India, but the arable land is not as big as that of India. Land resources are certainly not unlimited! Even if there is enough land, there will be problems with water and roads. We are all in big cities. Who will build a small place? Population distribution also needs to be balanced.
20 15 is the turning point of China's demographic dividend. When the family structure is 4-2- 1, it is necessary to solve the housing problem of seven people, theoretically three people. When 4 becomes 1 or 0, three houses are basically one set, which is the inflection point of demographic dividend. According to the historical birth climax and consumption age statistics.
Will the inflection point of population demand be reflected in housing prices in advance or will it be delayed? My conclusion is ahead of schedule.
In addition to the high stock price and the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the main reason for the stock market crash in 2008 was that the fully tradable shares would begin to be cashed under the pressure of selling. The first full release was in May 2008. When the time difference between institutions was set, it appeared half a year earlier, and reached a high point in June 2007 at 5438+ 10. In fact, they were one year ahead of schedule, and 70% of the shares reached a high point on May 30, 2007. In the property market, shipping is more difficult, the operation cycle is longer, and more promotion is needed. Two years in advance is normal.
Similarly, it is difficult to quit, so the process of quitting is long and obscure. Can't you see that the manager is already implementing the strategic exit?