In 20 19, the birth population in Japan was 864,000, the lowest since 1899.
This is the statistics of the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. Meanwhile, Japan's elderly population is 35.35 million, ranking first in the world.
Aging and declining birthrate have reached the island country step by step. 20 15 Kenichi Ohmae's book Low Desire Society caused a sensation and caused great repercussions in Japan. Today, not only "low-desire society" has gradually become a common word, but more and more Japanese young people have also chosen "no desire" which is more unique than "low desire".
In 20 17, the number of married couples in Japan exceeded 600,000, which was also the lowest after World War II. In 20 15 years, the proportion of unmarried men at the age of 50 was 23.4%, and that of women was 14. 1%, which means that one quarter of Japanese men and one seventh of Japanese women chose not to marry for life.
Less than 5% of Japanese young people buy a house to get married, 85% choose to rent a house to get married, and 10% live in parents' homes and staff dormitories. During the 32 years from 1983 to 20 15, the housing ownership rate of people under 40 also decreased from 42% to 10%.
The first reason why more and more people don't buy a house is that there is a high probability that Japanese real estate will neither increase in value nor maintain its value.
For example, if a reinforced concrete building is worth 50 million yen and the depreciation rate is 0.022 per year, then the depreciation rate of that year is 1 10000 yen, which is equivalent to 7 10000 RMB.
Excluding the depreciation rate, the three kinds of property taxes, namely acquisition, retention and transfer, account for 5% to 7% of the house price.
There is also an inheritance tax of 36 million yen, about 230,000 RMB.
So there must be three major factors: depreciation rate, property tax and inheritance tax.
Everyone wants to live and work in peace. According to the 20 15 opinion poll of Cabinet Office, nearly 75% people want to buy a house, but for various reasons, they have to choose not to buy it.
It should be noted that unlike us, we can't afford to buy a house. You have to buy a set of 80 flats in first-tier cities, with an average price of about 30,000, and at least an average salary of about 1 10,000, and you have to struggle for at least 20 years.
This does not include expenses such as food, clothing, housing and transportation.
In April 2020, the average monthly salary in Japan was about18,000 RMB, and the average property price in Kyoto was 230,000 yen. They can buy 65,438+000 apartments in Kyoto in just seven years.
It is not only the above three factors that make Japan's real estate prospects more pessimistic, but also the reasons why Japanese young people don't buy houses, as well as the pain and vigilance left by the real estate bubble, which have not been completely eliminated and even deeply rooted in many people's hearts.
Their parents were basically born at the peak of the small population in Japan's "Little Tuozi Age" in the middle and early 1970s, with more than 2 million people. Now they have become the backbone of Japanese young parents, but they suffered painful experiences and lessons in the bubble economy of the 1990s.
The baby boom in 1950s was a "gathering era" in Japan, with an average annual economic growth rate of 10%, which took off rapidly.
First, washing machines, refrigerators and black-and-white televisions were popularized, and then color TVs, air conditioners and automobiles were popularized in the 1960s and 1970s.
In 1980s, Japan replaced Britain as the largest foreign creditor and the second largest economy in the world.
1989, Japan's Mitsubishi acquired the Rockefeller Center, the national symbol of the United States, and Japan's Sony acquired the American entertainment giant Columbia Film.
Nearly half of the property rights in downtown Los Angeles belong to the Japanese, and 96% of the investment in Hawaii is also Japanese.
Important consumers of European luxury goods such as France and Italy are also Japanese. At this time, Japan is full of three words: Buy in buy buy.
This is not only the peak of high desire before low desire, but also the trap of consumerism.
After the American Plaza Agreement, the result was a real estate bubble. Many of their parents' houses have collapsed, and they are still in debt. House prices in Japan's big cities are almost halved, and house prices in small cities have fallen to 20% to 30%.
When young Japanese people were young, they watched their father come over like this and made great sacrifices, thus leaving them with psychological shadows and trauma.
Debt is the third reason for their stress. As the fertility rate reached 1.4 and fell below the warning line of 1.5, Japan fell into the low fertility trap after the consumerism trap.
Japan's debt accounts for 250% of GDP, which is higher than that of Greece and ranks first in the world.
In the eyes of the Japanese, these debts are all for them to pay back and will be passed on to them. Under this third pressure, they not only refused to buy a house, but also chose not to live.
The fourth is employment, which is unstable. There are also "secondary disasters" left by the bubble economy in the "lost 20 years".
The so-called "abandoned houses in Heisei" refers to some young people in Heisei period of Japan from 1989 to 20 19.
After the bubble economy burst in Heisei era, the environment deteriorated, employment was difficult and unemployment surged.
There are two main systems in Japan, namely, the annual merit sequence system and the labor dispatch system.
Broadly speaking, it can be divided into lifelong employment and informal employment.
Bubble is the direct cause of the collapse of lifelong employment system. In 20 18, the number of informal employees in Japan reached 21560,000.
According to the data of Nissin Basic Research Institute, the average annual salary of men aged 30 to 34 who formally hired employees was 4.046 million yen, while that of men who informally hired employees in the same period shrank to 2.565438 million +0.4 million yen, which was not bad at all.
Under the background of seniority and seniority, they can't compete with their parents. Now, between formal and informal, Japanese young people are divided into two classes, the upper-middle class of formal employees, the lower-middle class of informal employees and the poor.
According to the data of public welfare legal person and comprehensive life development research institute, 20.9% of informal employees should reduce the number of meals to cope with bad life.
Even the job is unstable. Talking about buying a house and marrying them is like Jin Huidi saying to people in famine and war: Why don't you eat meat?
Therefore, these young Japanese people have labeled themselves as "herbivores" and "people without desire" for various reasons.
"Herbivorous men" have won the support of Japanese women, because men who are as stable as grass and dare not expect to grow into towering trees are harmless to them. At the same time, their employment and economic independence have improved, and they have more choices in fertility, which is also a reason for Japan's low desire or even no desire and low fertility.
Among their unmarried group of 65,438+08 to 34, nearly 70% are men and 60% are women, and they have no contact.
Several Japanese dramas with high ratings in previous years just reflected their thoughts: Tokyo Daydream Girl, I am not unable to get married, I just don't want to, and Yu Zi without ambition.
Japan's "otaku" also appeared in the 1990s. They are only interested in games, comics, novels and surfing the Internet. And with the increase of the number of groups, they have formed a huge circle.
In the distant year of 2002, it was estimated that there were 850,000 NEET people and more than 65,438+10,000 hermits in Japan. It is their normal state not to study, not to work and not to associate with others. Practical actions have proved that "escape is shameful, but it is useful". 10 years later, in 20 13 years, there were 560,000 college graduates, and more than a quarter of them chose old informal employees.
Now the probability of this data will be higher, even several times. In the Japanese consciousness survey of 20 18, more than 60% people don't want children. In 20 19, the population under the age of Japan 12. 1% decreased by180,000 compared with the previous year.
Breaking up, minimalist culture, herbivorous system, low desire, no desire, and poverty (poor but full) are not so much the labels that Japanese young people choose by themselves, but rather that they are constantly frustrated by the bubble economy, seniority, labor dispatch and other living and social environments, and they are moving from passive to active self-protection.
Kenichi Ohmae predicted that all countries in the world will face a low-desire society, and wrote in "Low-desire Society":
"Japanese young people have no desire because they have not experienced the era of high growth full of infinite hope, nor have they experienced the era of bubble economy. They have only experienced the dark ages of deflation and depression. They are full of anxiety about the future from the beginning of being sensible, and their wages are frozen and reduced. Therefore, it has become a basic character not to go out, not to spend money, not to get married and not to have children, and to minimize the risks in life. "
According to the low birth trap, it is almost impossible to recover after breaking the warning line.
Although we also have many seemingly similar words and labels, such as online repression, migrant workers, Buddhism, mourning culture, lying equality and so on. Their online life is short, but Japan's low desire and no desire have always existed and have been repeatedly mentioned.
Japan's Heisei era ended on 20 19, and the future of low desire and no desire is good or bad, and the result is unknown.
But it is definitely not a virtuous circle for the economy. However, everyone should have full freedom of choice.