Recently, Zhou Hang, founder of Yi Dao Automobile and partner of Shunwei Capital Investment, analyzed the economic logic behind this phenomenon in a lecture on human economy. The Atomic Think Tank is authorized for exclusive distribution. At the end of the speech, Zhou Hang threw out his own confusion. At the scene, Wang Yong, deputy director of the Institute of Economics of Tsinghua University Academy of Social Sciences, and Professor Zhang from the National Development Research Institute of Peking University gave comments and answers.
The following is the full text of Zhou Hang's speech:
I started a business, now I invest, and I am also an economics enthusiast. You don't really need to know economics to start a business. If you know economics, you can succeed in starting a business, and the most successful one should be an economist. However, we rarely see economists succeed in starting a business. On the contrary, many successful entrepreneurs are not from professional backgrounds, and they have no economic thinking framework.
Entrepreneurs have a wild instinct, that is, to make money and run if they lose money. This is the quality that entrepreneurs should have. But it's best to know a little economics when starting a business. The success of starting a business requires imagination and intuition, as well as the courage and ability to innovate, but the awareness of economics can help you avoid detours. A lot of things are regular. If you are paranoid, you always feel that people can conquer nature, and as long as you work hard, you will be rewarded. If you stick to the end, you will still fail. It's best to respect the rules from the beginning.
In the past few years, the whole O2O wave has been closely related to * * * enjoying the economy. When people see cars and houses, they take them with them to enjoy the trend. There are also * * * sleeping cabins and * * * cameras. Everyone seems to think that with the easy connector of mobile phone, everything can be enjoyed. Many people even think that we can live well without anything else. Capital and entrepreneurial circles are constantly fooling around, and many people believe that this beautiful day will eventually come.
However, this is not the case.
Take the well-known bicycle and charging treasure for example. Enjoy the economy and enjoy the charging treasure. The four major companies have achieved large-scale profitability, with an annual profitability of more than 654.38 billion yuan. * * * Cycling is regarded as one of the four new inventions. There are only two or three now, and they are scarred and do not make money.
The same is * * * to enjoy the economy. Why does one live comfortably and the other doesn't make money?
Take * * * enjoying a bicycle as an example. The company went to the factory and ordered a bicycle that can be unlocked by remote control with a mobile phone. The average cost is about several hundred yuan. After the production was completed, they were placed in the streets and alleys of various cities in despair. There is no need to spend money in the process of launching, because roads belong to free public resources. At the beginning, this innovation made us very happy. We don't have to buy bicycles anymore, and we don't have to worry about losing them. We only need to spend a dollar to scan a yard before we can ride a bike. The progress brought by science and technology makes everyone happy.
There must be a lot of people fighting for such a good thing. There were more and more cars on the road, and finally the whole subway entrance was blocked by bicycles. The competition between companies starts with a dollar, ends with no money, and then turns into a bicycle to send money.
* * * It is different to enjoy the charging treasure. Its usage scene is private, and the occupied scene consumes rent, electricity and internet fees, and usually cannot be occupied by other companies. Merchants must talk to the operator of the charging treasure about rent, people flow and income. In the * * * charging treasure, all three parties are winners. Merchants use the remaining space to get more rental income, users can also get a very convenient and cheap service, and the company can also make a profit and achieve a win-win situation.
Looking at * * * enjoying a bicycle, there is only one and a half wins for the three parties: whether consumers spend only one yuan riding, riding for free, or even earning red envelopes, they all win to some extent. The government is a half winner. At first, it was a short-lived pleasure, but it soon became a headache, because the road public resources were over-occupied, and operators were forbidden to put them at will, otherwise they would be severely punished. This is one and a half winners.
Operators, entrepreneurs and the capitalists behind them are undoubtedly losers. Many people accuse the greed of capital of promoting the irrational competition of entrepreneurs. I think the most important reason for this phenomenon is whether the use of space is free. Interestingly, those who pay make money and those who pay lose money.
There is a phenomenon in many restaurants now. Consumers need to go to the front desk to scan the code, and can't let the waiter help them with it. Obviously, it is such a thing that affects the user experience, and almost all businesses have made the same choice. In fact, this is also a rational and correct decision of the merchants.
Before enjoying the charging treasure, service-conscious businesses will gain insight into users' needs in this respect and buy dozens of charging treasures for turnover. But it is very troublesome to manage, because every day someone has to ensure that the charging can be used, and different wires have to be equipped. Sometimes customers take away the charging treasure intentionally or unintentionally, and businesses lose a lot every month. This kind of thing is pure cost to the merchants.
If the merchant scans the QR code himself, or directly cooperates with the charging treasure operator, it will not work, saving the guests from going out of the private room to get it-because the code scanner has the obligation to return, which increases the cost of the merchant. The process of pursuing charging treasure will bring more harm to customer relationship. Charging treasure is just needed. In this case, the user scans the code by himself, plus measures such as deposit and binding account, the probability of user returning goods is much higher. To sum up, the merchants made a very smart and regular choice in this process.
As for * * * bicycles, there may be 40 million bicycles in the whole market at most. Our intuition is really too much. Bicycles are parked at every subway entrance and every community entrance in Beijing, which not only blocks intersections and blind roads, but also blocks normal sidewalks. The question is, how many cars are suitable? Who will decide the total amount? After determining the total amount, who will decide the distribution? The amount allocated is also difficult to calculate. Every 20 million people commute in Beijing on average. Is it enough for 50 people to ride bicycles? How do you know where to put these 50 cars? These are still unknown.
Not only city managers in China, but also managers all over the world want to find out how much is suitable for their own cities. Everyone wants to provide cars to people who want to use them, so that the utilization rate of each car is high, and it will not cause damage to the urban landscape, nor will it cause congestion and waste. But this ideal utopia is difficult to obtain through calculation and experience, so who will decide? China usually makes a decision as soon as the leader slaps his head. For example, there are already 500,000 bicycles in Beijing, and it feels too much. The total must be controlled at 400,000 by the end of this year. After the decision is issued, it will be implemented in detail, and no new release, destruction or supplement is allowed, just like our management methods in other fields. Because foreign countries are pure market economies, no one can shoot this head.
There are several feasible treatment methods.
One is the total auction value. For example, 5,000 vehicles will be put into operation this year, and enterprises will bid to pay a certain fee to the municipal government. After all, roads, as public resources, do not mean that they can be occupied for free. There is such a model abroad, but it still does not solve the problem of total amount. Whether it is 5000 or 10000, it is also decided by patting the head.
There is another way, instead of controlling the total amount, to pay for each item. A company puts 1000 vehicles in a city, with an average of 100 USD per vehicle. The company paid 65438+ million to the municipal government, and the municipal government allowed so many cars to go in. If the company is ambitious and wants to occupy this market quickly, it can also invest 654.38+million vehicles at one time, but pay 10 million first, valid for one year, and then re-price with the change of competitive environment.
Why are you always in a hurry to do business in China? Why is China characterized by over-investment? I think everyone should understand the way entrepreneurs think. It is not the irrationality of entrepreneurs or the greed of capital, but the absence of laws in China. As we all know, before laws and regulations are clear, facts must be formed as much as possible.
The income of the pioneers is the biggest, and entrepreneurs must maximize the total amount of investment in the market before the gate is closed. Because everyone has to go out of this door, there will be a stampede. Capital is also smart. As we all know, you quickly invest in building a car and then put it in, which becomes the threshold. So many so-called crazy phenomena in China, the essential problems may come from the system. * * * What is the best governance model for some new service forms that occupy public resources? I haven't come to a definite conclusion yet.
Next, I want to discuss the next topic with you. Why are there so many unreliable enjoyment?
There are many strange and interesting * * * enjoyment economies in our market, such as * * * enjoying the wardrobe, * * enjoying the bed, * * enjoying the umbrella, * * enjoying the Mazar, * * enjoying the basketball and * * enjoying the boyfriend. It seems that everyone will have this kind of demand in some situation.
Take * * * enjoying an umbrella for example. Few people put umbrellas in their bags every day, which is too much trouble. Then why can't there be umbrellas everywhere on the roadside? 10 intersection can have 10 umbrellas. When it rains, you can pick them up and leave. When the rain stops, you can put them on the spot. If I have to pay a dollar every time, I am also very happy.
I think what really suits * * * has the characteristics of high value and low utilization rate. Although entrepreneurs' insight into users' needs is true, they usually ignore how much users are willing to pay for their own needs. Any free service will infinitely enlarge the demand, which will naturally lead to the situation that the supply will never be enough.
If seeing a doctor is free, maybe I want to see a doctor even if I have a rash and cough. My demand for medical treatment has been greatly enlarged, but at the same time the supply is always limited. Demand is infinitely magnified and supply is limited, which naturally leads to shortage. Therefore, in the planned economy, free things are often the most expensive, which is the reason.
* * * In enjoying the economy, people often ignore the cost of many beautiful things, that is, the "touch cost". With the internet, the cycle of meeting the demand is getting shorter and shorter, which means that the frequency of calling and initiating the demand is getting higher and higher. But every time you launch a demand, there are actually many hidden costs.
Take calling a car as an example. If the calling process is broken down, what costs do you need to bear? Take out your mobile phone, enter the position of getting on and off, choose a good model, and then wait. Calling a taxi may not be successful, so you need to try again. This is the first time to wait. After confirming the order, the car is expected to pick it up in a few minutes, which is the second waiting. Because GPS is not accurate enough, it is usually necessary to call the driver to confirm the position of both parties; Confirm the destination and route after getting on the bus, and pay after getting off the bus.
Of course, entrepreneurs have tried every means to optimize this process, including confidential payment, automatic location identification, intelligent recommendation of assembly point and so on. They racked their brains to optimize every detail of each interaction point experience.
But it is undeniable that no matter how optimized, the whole process has a cost. Many times, you have to go to the hospital, have a meeting and catch a plane. At this time of high certainty, you still feel insecure and dare to use the internet to get a car. Or you should set aside more departure time for this. These are actually added together, and I think they are hidden costs for users and consumers. The cost actually determines whether it will call this service.
So I put forward a possibility hypothesis: is a key issue affecting economic enjoyment actually a question of entry cost? The above are some factual problems I found in the process of starting a business and investing. I hope other teachers can give theoretical answers.
I don't know
* * * Is it successful to enjoy the charging treasure? I really didn't see it. I think * * * enjoying charging treasure is an industry that is more pitted than * * * enjoying bicycles.
With the rapid development of battery technology, the capacity of mobile phone battery is increasing, and the fast charging technology is also developing rapidly. For example, my Huawei mobile phone is charged with a fast charging plug, which can charge about 80% in less than an hour. In this way, the dependence of the mobile phone on the charging treasure is not so strong. Most public places have free charging heads to borrow. I think most people think it is not cost-effective to rent a charging treasure to charge once, unless there is an emergency. Therefore, personally, I think that * * * enjoys charging treasure rather than * * * enjoys cycling, which has a bright future.