According to the statistics of all-media reporters of Southern Finance and Economics, as of April 1 1, 2 1 listed banks in A-share have disclosed their annual reports. Among them, the proportion of real estate loans or personal housing loans of 8 listed banks exceeded the standard.
Specifically, the proportion of personal housing loans of China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank, China CITIC Bank and Nong Yu Commercial Bank exceeded the standard, and the proportion of real estate loans in Bank of Zhengzhou exceeded the standard; China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank and Qingdao Bank all stepped on the "red line". Real estate loans are the focus of supervision this year, and banks that exceed the "red line" need to complete rectification within 2 ~ 4 years.
Zhou, a macro analyst in the financial department of China Everbright Bank, told the reporter, "At present, the difficulty in reducing real estate loans is mainly due to its attractiveness. For banks, real estate loans are large in amount, long in term, stable in collateral and low in non-performing rate. However, with the changes in the regulatory environment, banks will also adjust their asset-liability structure and change the way of cooperation with housing enterprises, and their proportion in manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, new innovative industries, green credit and other fields will gradually increase. "
The indicators of eight banks exceeded the regulatory limit.
Recently, listed banks have concentrated on publishing annual reports. As of April 1 1, there were 2 A-share listed banks, including 6 state-owned banks, 8 joint-stock banks, 3 city commercial banks and 4 rural commercial banks. Overall, 2 1 bank's personal housing loans exceeded 29.5 trillion yuan, and 8 banks "stepped on the line", accounting for nearly 40%.
According to the new regulations on the concentration of real estate loans, the upper limit of real estate loans for large Chinese banks (the first file) is 40% and 27.5% respectively; The upper limits of individual housing loans of medium-sized banks in China (second tranche) are 32.5% and 20% respectively; The upper limits of individual housing loans for Chinese small banks and non-county rural cooperative institutions (third tranche) are 22.5% and 17.5% respectively.
The data shows that both CCB and Postal Savings Bank have an indicator to step on the line. Among them, the personal housing mortgage loan of CCB was 34.82%, and that of Postal Savings Bank was 33.6 1%, which exceeded the regulatory limit (32.5%) by about 2 percentage points. In addition, CCB's real estate loans accounted for 39.24%, which is also very close to the regulatory limit (40%).
Among the second-tier banks, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank both exceeded the line, and CITIC Bank stepped on the line. Among them, China Merchants Bank real estate loans and personal housing mortgage loans accounted for 32. 16% and 25.35% respectively; The two indicators of Industrial Bank are 34.56% and 26.55% respectively. The above indicators of both banks exceeded the regulatory red line by more than 4 percentage points. Personal mortgage loans of CITIC Bank accounted for 20.48%, exceeding the regulatory red line by 0.48%.
It is worth mentioning that at the end of June 2020, the overall mortgage ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank was 27.9%, slightly exceeding the regulatory red line of 0.4%; However, by the end of 2020, the overall mortgage ratio of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has dropped to 26.37%, which has met the regulatory requirements.
Combing the data, we can find that Shanghai Pudong Development Bank has greatly reduced the loans in the real estate industry in the past year. When the total loan increased by 14. 15%, the overall mortgage growth rate was only 3.67%.
In addition, among the joint-stock banks, Ping An Bank and Zheshang Bank still have some room for growth in real estate loans.
Among the third banks, two indicators of Qingdao Bank exceeded the line, and one indicator of Bank of Zhengzhou and Chongqing Agricultural Bank exceeded the line. Among them, the real estate loans of Qingdao Bank and Bank of Zhengzhou accounted for 29.77% and 27.95% respectively, both exceeding the regulatory red line (22.5%) by more than 4 percentage points. In addition, the personal mortgage loans of Qingdao Bank and Chongqing Agricultural Bank accounted for 19.53% and 17.98% respectively, which also exceeded the regulatory red line (17.5%).
"For a long time, the proportion of real estate development loans in the whole loan has been at a low level of around 7%. There has been little change in recent years, and mortgages have risen rapidly. " Lian Ping, chief economist and dean of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, pointed out that from the information of listed banks and the open market, the scale of banks that need to adjust housing-related loans is relatively limited, and the balance of real estate loans involved accounts for about a quarter of the balance of housing-related loans of the whole financial institution, mainly concentrated in several large and medium-sized Chinese banks such as CCB, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Pudong Development Bank and Xingye. According to estimates, in 20021year, the housing-related loans of the above banks increased by10 billion, reaching15 billion, while more banks did not step on the red line, so it is objectively possible to make up for the vacancy.
The transition period of rectification given by the supervision is between 2 and 4 years. Although some banks' housing-related loan indicators exceed the red line, regardless of the statements in the annual report or the statements made by bank executives at the performance conference, all banks have indicated that they will constantly adjust and optimize the credit structure according to the policy requirements.
CCB is the largest bank in the real estate sector, with the highest proportion of individual housing loans. Lv Jiajin, vice president of CCB, said that CCB will take various measures to steadily promote the steady development of corporate real estate business, maintain reasonable and moderate growth of personal housing mortgage loans, and orderly reduce the proportion of real estate-related loans in various loans.
The growth rate of real estate loans slowed down
In the past year, in order to hedge the impact of the epidemic, the scale of bank loans has expanded rapidly. According to central bank data, RMB loans increased by 19.63 trillion yuan in 2020, an increase of 2.82 trillion yuan year-on-year. As far as commercial banks are concerned, most of the total loans have maintained a growth rate of more than 10%.
Take Bank of Ningbo as an example. In 2020, the scale of assets expanded at a high speed, and the growth rate of total assets reached 23.5%, of which the loan scale increased by 30% at an ultra-high speed, which was significantly ahead of the peers and the highest loan growth rate since 20 10.
The reporter noted that while the overall loan scale rose sharply, the growth rate of total loans in the real estate industry slowed down relatively, among which CITIC Bank, Minsheng Bank, Nong Yu Commercial Bank, Changshu Bank, Jiangyin Bank and Wuxi Bank experienced negative growth.
Specifically, the total loans of Minsheng Bank increased by 5.47% year-on-year, real estate loans decreased by 7.8 1%, and personal housing mortgage loans increased by 22.72%. Total loans of commercial banks in Nong Yu increased by 16.20% year-on-year, real estate loans decreased by 30.32%, and personal mortgage loans increased by 24.96%.
Li Guangzi, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out, "After the introduction of the centralized system of real estate loans, banks that step on the line have two solutions. One is to reduce the scale of real estate loans and reduce the amount of new real estate loans; The second is to be a big denominator, increase other credit supply, and dilute the concentration of real estate loans. " He pointed out that since individual housing mortgage loans generally have a long term and a small single amount, from an operational point of view, loans to real estate enterprises will be easier to achieve in order to achieve the goal of rapid pressure decline in the short term.
The reporter found that compared with the growth rate of total loans, the growth rate of personal housing mortgage loans has not been inferior, and some even greatly exceeded. For example, Jiangyin Bank's loans to real estate enterprises decreased 10.24% year-on-year, but personal housing loans increased by 40.88% year-on-year.
Why is there a difference between real estate loans and personal housing mortgage loans? Zhou told reporters that "the main reason for the differentiation between the two is that in recent years, China has strengthened the supervision of bank real estate credit and guided more funds to invest in weak links in the real economy such as small and micro private enterprises. At the same time, in 2020, the "three red lines" of housing enterprises will be introduced to guide housing enterprises to strengthen debt management; The rise in personal mortgage housing loans is mainly related to the rapid rise in housing prices in first-and second-tier hotspot cities last year and the active sales in the property market. "
On March 22nd, Zhejiang Province issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Prudent Management of Housing Credit (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), requiring all financial institutions to conduct a comprehensive self-examination of individual housing loans, consumer loans and operating loans. Previously, Shenzhen, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and other places issued notices requiring banks to conduct self-inspection on commercial loans and consumer loans to prevent illegal funds from being misappropriated for real estate.
Unlike Guangzhou, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the notice issued by Zhejiang also pointed out that the management of real estate development loans should be effectively strengthened. All financial institutions are required to strictly review the compliance of real estate development projects, implement the requirements for the closed management of real estate development loan funds, issue loans according to the project schedule, put an end to over-scale and over-time lending, and prevent the loan funds from being misappropriated.
A lender of a large state-owned bank pointed out that the supervision of development loans has always been strict, and Zhejiang once again stressed that it will standardize the loan issuance for unqualified enterprise projects.
Lv Jiajin pointed out that CCB will continue to implement strict list management of real estate development loans, focus on supporting high-quality customers in first-and second-tier cities, conduct project compliance review, and strictly control the loan investment and project use. For individual housing loans, priority should be given to those who just need it, and the reasonable general housing needs and housing improvement needs of the people should be met.
Recently, the amount of personal housing mortgage loans of banks in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places is tight, and queuing loans has become a common phenomenon. In addition to state-owned banks, many credit managers of small and medium-sized banks directly told the intermediary that in the short term, there will be no mortgage quota, and interest rates may gradually rise.
"The implementation of the bank's personal mortgage ceiling will inevitably lead some banks that exceed the standard or are close to the red line to tighten the personal mortgage quota. There is some upward pressure on the mortgage interest rate, but the impact is expected to be limited." Zhou believes that, first of all, the proportion of personal loans in banks is a dynamic proportion. If the loan as the denominator expands, the scale of personal mortgage can also be expanded; Second, the introduction of this red line is not to curb rigid demand. A few banks with tight quotas will have some upward pressure on interest rates. For banks with abundant quotas, especially in areas where the property market inventory is still high, the personal mortgage interest rate will remain stable or even lower. Third, as the "anchor" of mortgage interest rate pricing, the five-year LPR quotation interest rate trend is still very stable.
The scale of mortgage will further decline.
On March 22nd, the People's Bank of China held a symposium on the optimization and adjustment of credit structure of 24 major banks in China, summed up and exchanged experiences and practices, analyzed and studied the credit situation, and made arrangements for promoting the next stage of credit structure optimization. At the symposium, financial institutions such as Export-Import Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank and Industrial Bank made exchange speeches on the main measures to optimize and adjust the credit structure in key areas.
The meeting pointed out that the recovery of China's real economy is still not solid, and the credit structure of key areas and weak links still needs to be adjusted and optimized.
Judging from the key areas of credit supply this year deployed by this meeting, small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, green and low-carbon industries and technological innovation will become hot areas of credit supply in the banking industry this year. At the same time, real estate finance will continue to strengthen strict control. The analysis pointed out that the scale of new real estate loans this year is expected to be further reduced.
Lian Ping pointed out that there is a strong correlation between the rise and fall of house prices and the growth rate of housing-related loans. In the future, housing financial regulation will focus more on key cities and highlight structural characteristics, rather than "one size fits all". Under the central government's policy of "housing and not speculating", the real estate market regulation policy will continue to be strictly regulated. Especially in structure, reasonable adjustment of housing-related loans of large and medium-sized commercial banks in hot cities will play a key role in alleviating local housing financial risks.
Zhou believes that with the changes in the regulatory environment, banks will also adjust their asset-liability structure, and banks may change their cooperation with housing enterprises and asset securitization to maximize profits while meeting regulatory requirements. After all, mortgages are still attractive; However, in the medium and long term, banks will gradually adjust their business strategies, realize the diversification of asset-liability structure, and promote the transformation and development of banks. The proportion of banks in manufacturing, small and micro enterprises, new innovative industries and green credit will gradually increase; Pay more attention to the supply of characteristic and high-quality financial services, enhance market competitiveness and increase intermediary business income.
In the long run, especially under the goal of carbon neutrality and peak carbon dioxide emissions, supervision will guide commercial banks to increase their support for carbon emission reduction investment and financing activities in accordance with the principle of marketization, and incite more financial resources to tilt towards green and low-carbon industries. In addition, banks may tend to focus on strategic emerging industries, green finance, people's livelihood projects, rental housing, consumption and other areas that are in line with national strategies to better support the development of the real economy.