First of all, the urbanization process has pushed up housing prices.
The urbanization level of China is only over 40%, while the average level of developed countries is over 70%. There is still a big gap between China and this level, that is to say, there are still a large number of farmers entering the city. These farmers need housing, and the housing demand space is huge. China is in the process of economic adjustment and growth, and the urbanization process is accelerating. The acceleration of urbanization is bound to be accompanied by a large number of non-urban population pouring into cities.
You know, China is a big agricultural country, and the rural population accounts for the majority. Farmers who go to cities alone are a very attractive figure in housing consumption. Unless the urbanization process is stagnant, farmers will not go to cities.
Second, the city of China is in a period of rapid development of demolition and construction.
China's urban expansion is only accelerating. Today, the urban area of a city was still very small a few years ago, and after three to five years, the urban area has doubled. Take Guangzhou as an example. A few years ago, the urban area was only 1000 square kilometers, but today it has expanded to more than 3800 square kilometers. The rapid expansion of cities will inevitably lead to large-scale demolition and construction. After the expansion, a large number of people need to match their lives and jobs. In addition, large-scale demolition construction has also led to a large number of demolition needs, and all of them are large houses for small houses, and high-grade houses for ordinary houses. A city cannot become an empty city after expansion. Facts have proved that wherever the city expands, the population will be filled.
Third, economic development is inseparable from real estate, and the status of pillar industries remains unshakable.
A few years ago, big cities regarded real estate as a pillar industry. Now the economic development of big cities is on the right track. Although the status of real estate as a pillar industry is not obvious, it still plays a decisive role. In second-,third-and fourth-tier cities, real estate is still a well-deserved pillar industry, which is also the fundamental reason why the central government regulates and controls, but local governments do not cooperate. For the second, third and fourth tier cities, especially the third and fourth tier cities, the industry is weak and the hematopoietic function of the cities is insufficient. Only real estate can drive economic development. The development of real estate is the leader of urban direction. Where the real estate develops, the city extends. No one can underestimate the driving role of real estate, which has driven the development of almost all industries. For example, clothing and cosmetics seem to have nothing to do with real estate. In fact, the development of clothing and cosmetics also has the credit of real estate, and a large number of clothing and cosmetics theme shopping malls and professional markets are driving its development. Without real estate, all walks of life will be hit to varying degrees.
Fourth, real estate has become the main source of income for local finance.
It is an indisputable fact that real estate has become the main source of local government revenue. We don't say that real estate will stimulate the local economy, but that the land supply needed for real estate development is the support point of local finance. If there is a lack of land revenue, local governments will be short of money, reduce fiscal revenue and affect the administrative power and authority of local governments. Therefore, no matter how the central government regulates it, local governments have their own abacus. If they can't publicly support real estate, they will support it secretly. This is also an important factor for central regulation to become "air conditioning".
For example, the state stipulates that before obtaining the pre-sale certificate, lottery, fund-raising, registration, reservation, etc. are not allowed. Except for first-tier cities, such as second, third and fourth-tier cities, it is basically not implemented. The government turned a blind eye and actually secretly supported real estate development.
Fifth, the surge in luxury consumption has led to soaring housing prices.
Some time ago, it was rumored that China's richest people spent a lot of money in the United States, "I have nothing but money", which is exactly the same as when farmers washed their feet and went to the fields overnight during the reform and opening up. China has just become rich. Due to long-term poverty and backwardness, coupled with a weak cultural foundation, once they have a few small money in their hands, their "small peasant consciousness" will rise, which is one of them. Secondly, because many people in China have money, they live a good life, and their lifestyles have undergone a qualitative change, from having ample food and clothing to enjoying life. At present, China people's enjoyment consciousness is increasing day by day. Spacious and luxurious housing is one of the most important elements to enjoy life, so many people start to change rooms. The larger the area, the higher the grade. China's luxury consumption has shocked the world, and it is surging. These rich people are generous in buying houses. They buy the house they like as soon as they see it, and most of them pay in one lump sum. Because they have plenty of money.
Sixth, pay attention to controlling the excessive rise in housing prices, not suppressing them.
People in the industry will be asked the same question: what will the future real estate look like? Where will it go? Why does the country always have a problem with real estate? People who ask these questions have no idea at all, that is, why should the state regulate real estate? What is the real intention of regulating real estate? Many developers always think that the state is suppressing real estate. Because of this, once there is a regulation policy, they are restless and at a loss.
Why should the state regulate real estate? Because of the rapid development of real estate, it occupies the "overtaking lane" for a long time, which seriously affects the passage of other vehicles; Because house prices have risen so fast that they are almost upside down, which is not conducive to improving people's livelihood. The purpose of the central government's regulation is clear, but no one understands it. Note that the central government's regulation of real estate is to control the excessive rise of real estate prices, or to "control too fast" and control profiteering. The real intention is not to let the real estate price rise too fast, but it can rise reasonably. It is to control the reasonable rise of real estate prices together, not to suppress real estate. The central government's influence and pulling effect on the real estate economy is very clear, and it is impossible to suppress real estate. In this sense, real estate will continue to make great strides, and expecting house prices to fall within five years is tantamount to dreaming. Of course, house prices fluctuate, and will rise soon after a short-term downward adjustment, and the main line will rise.
7. Inflation expectations have increased, pushing up house prices.
CPI rose, and agricultural product prices hit record highs. From an economic point of view, the food price index will be directly reflected in housing prices. Look at how fast oil prices have risen in recent years, snowballing. The rise of the price index will inevitably lead to the rise of house prices, even the prices of cabbage and radish are rising, and there is no reason why house prices should not rise. It is impossible for other prices to go up and let the house price fall alone. To control housing prices, we must first stabilize CPI, otherwise controlling housing prices is just wishful thinking.
Eight, land prices soared, pushing up housing prices.
Everyone only saw soaring house prices. In fact, land prices are rising faster than house prices. It is reported that the land bought ten years ago has not been developed, and the land price alone has turned hundreds of times, making money more easily than development. Land prices are getting higher year by year, like the Monkey King's somersault. Land price accounts for a small part of the cost of real estate development. Land prices have gone up, and house prices will definitely go up. If the government auctions land, it will only accelerate the rise of land prices and artificially raise land prices. Unless the state changes the form of land transfer and circulation, this way will only push the land price to a high point. The fact that the floor price of land was higher than the house price in previous years fully explained the problem, and it was abnormal that flour was more expensive than bread. Some central enterprises are involved in real estate development, because central enterprises have a government background and are not short of money, which leads to frequent land kings, which have become the driving force for rising housing prices.
Nine, the rise in building materials prices has become the driving force behind housing prices.
In addition to the skyrocketing land price, the cost of other aspects of real estate is also rising. The rising price of steel, cement and other building materials has become the invisible behind-the-scenes pusher of rising house prices. With the increase of costs, house prices will undoubtedly rise, and the increase of house prices is much higher than the coefficient of rising costs.
Some people may say that the rising cost of building materials accounts for a small proportion in the whole cost composition, and the impact of rising building materials prices on Shanghai housing prices is very limited. It is true that the increase in the cost of building materials has a limited role in promoting the rise in housing prices, and the reason is also very simple, because until today, real estate is still profiteering, which is unmatched by any other industry. And the scale benefit of real estate is obvious, and the profit is slightly higher than other industries, which is enough to form a huge profit vortex.
Although the cost of building materials has little impact on housing prices, it does not mean that there is no promotion and the cost has increased. Developers can't pay their own money, and they must pass it on to housing prices. In addition, the rising cost of building materials at least gives developers a reasonable excuse to raise prices.
Ten, the house is the best investment to maintain and increase value.
A house is no longer just for living, but also an ideal investment. Driven by factors such as low bank interest, high stock market risk and unstable gold market, the house has become the most valuable investment for the people. Since the birth of commercial housing, it can be said that its price quotation has been leaping forward, but it only appreciates and does not depreciate. Even if there is a period of price reduction, it is only short-lived, which is a natural shock of the market, not caused by the depreciation of the house itself.
The financial income of nationals in many developed countries is generally many times higher than that of China, and property income is a better way to make money by raising national income. Many people who have bought houses have enjoyed the benefits brought by the huge appreciation of their houses. This is the motivation for many rich people to buy houses again and again. In China, there are many people who own 5- 10 apartments, and there are also many people who own 2-3 suites. The super value-added ability of the house, like a stimulant, excites the people. A few years ago, a large number of real estate speculators appeared, and it was precisely because of the super value-added ability of the house that most of them made huge profits from it.
Xi。 The traditional conservative concept of "having a house is the only way to have a home" is catching up with the rise in housing prices.
Influenced by thousands of years of traditional feudal thoughts, China people always think that "there is a home only if there is a house", and no house is like wandering, like duckweed without roots. This kind of thought is deeply rooted and has been influencing and acting on China people. Influenced by this old concept, China people struggled for housing as adults, and a large number of house slaves appeared. After working as an adult for several years, everyone wants to buy a house and try their best to make money and save money in order to buy a house of their own. It is conceivable that every adult wants to buy a house, and some unmarried women also want to buy a house. Both of them bought houses before they got married, and they will have two suites after they get married. Of course, this is a small number. According to this phenomenon, there is no reason for China's housing prices not to rise, because there is strong demand.
12. Women are the accomplices of rising house prices.
People are scolding the high housing prices, and many women are involved in this "scolding war". As everyone knows, women themselves have become accomplices in soaring housing prices. Women in China have a strong dependence. When they get married, they always hold a mentality of "I entrust myself to you" and turn themselves into vassals of men. What's more, most women are too poor to love rich people. If they want to get married, they will marry someone who has a house. If they hear that the other party doesn't have a house, they will threaten: wait until you buy a house, and don't talk about marriage without buying a house. It's better this way. Meet a stubborn person who doesn't even have a room? Break up, put it down and leave. Men in China are oppressed by women, so they try their best to make money to buy a house. The purpose is simple, that is, to marry a wife and have children. Many people become house slaves in this fog. When I got married, seven lonely days became "house slaves" together, and * * * worked hard to make money and repay the loan.
This idea of women has undoubtedly become an accomplice in pushing up housing prices. If women don't ask men to have a house before they fall in love and get married, then many people will not join the army of buying houses, at least they will be delayed. Everyone has to buy a house when they fall in love and get married. China has 300-400 million families and needs 300-400 million suites. This is not to mention those who have multiple suites and change rooms halfway. Women virtually increase the rigid demand. There is no reason why the price of the house should not increase because of the large demand.
Thirteen, the media catch the wind, hype, stir up a pool of clear water.
The media has an unshirkable responsibility for the rapid rise in house prices. Not to mention the slightest movement in the country, make a fuss about the topic so that everyone in the world will know. Of course, it is right to report the government's policies and measures, but the media is often not as simple as reporting. Instead, it is a common policy to publicize and dye with large space and large layout and invite experts from all walks of life to interpret it. After the media's ordeal, it has caused a storm in the city, and everyone is booing.
The media like to focus on people who are a little famous and like self-hype, such as Ren Zhiqiang and Pan Shiyi. As long as they speak a little, the media will rush to the road and wave flags and shout for them without hesitation. A well-known or powerful real estate enterprise reduces prices or increases prices. This is a very common thing. It's a marketing technique. It's not worth mentioning at all. The media, as the focus of news, discussed and commented with millions of words, which simply hit mosquitoes with anti-aircraft guns and made the whole country rumble.
The media has the function of guiding public opinion and can directly influence the public. The media concocted this way, and the world was peaceful and chaotic. The media has become an advocate of rising house prices.
14. Unreasonable government regulation has contributed to the rise in housing prices.
In the face of soaring housing prices and people's complaints about high housing prices, the government had to come forward to implement regulation, and then the government just "treated the headache and treated the foot." The way to do things is to wait for the problem to be remedied, instead of coming up with a set of management norms in advance and always struggling to cope. When the house price is high, it is regulated, and the house price is relatively stable, so it is ignored. This kind of control will only push up housing prices. Because the government has not formulated a systematic plan, it is only temporary regulation. Every regulation is to push real estate to the front desk and pull real estate from behind the scenes to the front desk. Can this make house prices fall? Because of the government's regular regulation, the whole people are paying attention to and discussing housing prices. With this kind of attention and discussion, the natural heat of real estate will not decrease, but will continue to heat up. There is no reason why the price should not go up. When people shout "improve women's status" every day, it is obvious that "women's status" has not improved, but when people stop shouting, women's status has improved. When 10,000 people, 100,000 people, millions of people, tens of millions of people and hundreds of millions of people are paying attention to a person, it is difficult for this person to be famous. Can his worth not skyrocket?
15. With the rapid development of economy, people's enjoyment consciousness is enhanced, which leads to the shortening of housing term and the increase of market demand space.
According to the investigation and study of relevant departments, a house will be changed into a new house after living in it for seven to eight years. In other words, after buying a new house, a person (family) will become the owner again after seven or eight years, including investing in real estate speculation. The reason for this phenomenon is that with the rapid development of economy, people's sense of enjoyment has been strengthened. After living for seven or eight years, the new house has become an old house, and people have to change it again. Coupled with the rapid expansion of the city in the form of spreading cakes, even if it does not change, it may be demolished by the new plan in urban development. In modern society, it is unrealistic to expect a suite to live for decades. This, in a way, increases the rigid demand.
16. Corruption demand pushes up housing prices.
The so-called demand for corruption means that political officials and civil servants are paid high salaries to maintain honesty because of corruption. In third-and fourth-tier cities, many residents can hardly afford to buy houses, and business is doing well, and business owners are incidental. White-collar workers in third-and fourth-tier cities have limited income, so it is difficult to afford a house in a short time only by wages. It is understood that in third-and fourth-tier cities, most of them are civil servants and cultural, educational and health systems. Why can these people afford a house? Wage income alone can't afford it, but they have become the main force to buy a house. On the surface, they can only say that they got rich through corruption. Some people have accumulated a lot of wealth through corruption. These people not only buy one set, but also buy two sets, three sets or more. This corrupt demand has undoubtedly led to the rise of housing prices, and they have made obvious contributions to high housing prices. It can be said that it is an effective measure to really reduce housing prices and combat corruption demand.
Seventeen, developers can not reduce prices, house prices will only rise and not fall.
In fact, the reason is very simple. When developers cut prices, no one bought them, because buyers saw the developers cut prices, and they wanted to make an abacus in their hearts and finally fell. This decline may drop a lot, and it will last for a while, and it may even be impossible to get up. Buying a house, like buying a stock, is buying up and not buying down. Today, the developer has reduced the price, and the buyer will not buy it, but will wait until tomorrow to reduce it, not buy it tomorrow, and then reduce it on credit the day after tomorrow. In this way, buyers will never find a suitable entry point. Will always wait and see, because when they buy at a reduced price, they are always worried that they will lose money if they buy today and continue to fall tomorrow.
Developers are in business and know this truth like the back of their hands. They know that reducing prices can't change sales, so they have to die. Besides, developers are generally very optimistic about the prospects of real estate, and it is impossible to reduce prices. Except for a few developers with very difficult funds, it is unlikely to queue up to reduce cash, but even if some developers reduce prices, it is impossible to trigger a wave of price cuts. Therefore, expecting the house price to fall is tantamount to an idiotic dream.
Eighteen, there are people who support housing prices.
Although in the traditional media and online media, the loudest voice is that someone wants to buy a house, and the house price is too high all day, so that the media also "shouts", thus affecting the government, so the government comes out to carry out administrative intervention.
However, another group can not be ignored, although the voice is not big, but the role is not small, this group is the owner who has bought a house. This group of buyers don't want house prices to fall, but expect house prices to rise, because if house prices fall, their houses will depreciate, and if house prices rise, their houses will appreciate. People who own houses are obviously more powerful than those who don't, and they have control to some extent, both economically and socially. At least rich people, civil servants and non-civil servants working in government agencies basically have their own houses, and these people have certain "control" ability. They will use their "ability" to stop the house price from falling.
Nineteen. Media support for rising house prices
The media will scream at the slightest movement in real estate. As long as any real estate starts to cut prices, the media will immediately hype it up. Originally, price reduction promotion was a normal marketing method, but the media loved to "make trouble" and added fuel to the hype. No problem has become a problem, and it is not news that has been forcibly turned into news. If the state has introduced some policies on real estate, the media will go all out to mobilize experts and make room for real estate, just like on the battlefield. The media has a more sensitive sense of smell than dogs.
Although the media is so neurotic and crazy, it is entirely for the sake of temporary pleasure, in order to seize the news for the first time and make a big news. In fact, the last thing I want is the media, and even the media are more worried about falling house prices than developers. Why?
Let's look at a data first: Guangzhou Daily's annual advertising revenue is about 65.438+0.8 billion, of which 70% is real estate advertising. There is little difference between Southern Metropolis Daily and large-scale famous brand paper media in other parts of the country. The income of some real estate websites is generally better than that of other industries. We can imagine that if the real estate goes bankrupt, the income of these media will not only be halved, but almost two-thirds, and their life will be worse than that of house slaves. In this sense, the last thing the media wants to see is falling house prices, withered real estate, and a hard time for developers, but developers can change their investment direction and choose to invest in other industries, while the media is still the media, and it is impossible to switch to other industries behind closed doors.