As a consultant, I prefer doing research. Since 20 15, I have also written some articles about the development trend of the industry, from 20 16, the growth rate is gradually declining, 20 17, the accelerated differentiation of the construction industry, 20 18, entering the deep water area and 2066.
What does "watershed" mean? The most famous "watershed" in China is the Qinling Mountains, which is the geographical dividing line between the north and the south of China, with Sichuan and Hubei in the south and Shaanxi in the north. The original meaning of "watershed" refers to the main boundary between different things.
Next, I will discuss with you the "watershed" of the construction industry. My aunt is talking nonsense. Please listen to whether the "watershed" of the industry has really come. I will discuss my views with you from six aspects: industry reform, industrial policy, investment power, market, business model and development power.
The first is the watershed of industry reform.
Since 2000, the construction industry has undergone many reforms. There are many WeChat official accounts in the industry to spread industry reform policies. Every time there is a reform, it will be pushed for the first time. The number of such articles is very large, and the construction industry is a policy-oriented industry. From the gestation of reform to today's substantive advancement, the direction of the industry is gradually clear.
First of all, the revision of the building law may enter the stage of substantive advancement. Building laws are often criticized. 1July 1997 1 1 day was promulgated, and the relevant provisions of Article 48 on employee insurance were revised in 2010/year, and revised in 20 19 year.
The qualification reform plan has been introduced, and it has entered a one-year transition period, from 593 to 245, a decrease of 60%. The qualification reform, cutting off 60% at one time, is still relatively strong. If there is another reform in the future and it is cut by 60%, only 100 will be left, with fewer restrictions. I have discussed this issue with many people. Of course, this is an extreme idea, but the trend of "simplifying administration and decentralizing power, strengthening supervision and improving services" has already produced results in industry reform.
The cost reform system has also been introduced and entered the start-up stage. On July 24 this year, Document No.38 was published, and I extracted two paragraphs from it: "Implementing the project pricing method of bill of quantities pricing, market inquiry, independent quotation and competitive pricing"; "Cancel the stipulation that the maximum bid price limit is calculated according to the quota, and gradually stop issuing the budget quota", which shows that this reform is both urgent and powerful.
In addition, there are reforms in the construction mode, including general contracting, whole-process consultation, architect responsibility system, etc., which have gradually entered the substantive promotion stage from policy guidance. In July this year, Jiangsu Province issued a document demanding that "all localities should make it clear that the proportion of general contracting for projects mainly invested by state-owned capital is not less than 20%, and by 2025, all assembly-type construction projects invested by the government will adopt general contracting".
The second is the watershed of industrial policy.
Many of our industries are driven by external policies. In the future, the external force of industrial policy will gradually decline, and the development of industry will gradually rely on endogenous power.
When the industrial policy of building industrialization was introduced, it was very strong. At that time, the land price was either very cheap when the construction industrialization project was built in various places, or it could be returned to you at full price after buying the land. I believe that there will be fewer and fewer similar policies. You can do building industrialization, but you must be able to improve efficiency and adapt to the trend of decreasing labor force in the future.
PPP (including BT, BOT, AB0), general contracting, whole-process consultation, architect responsibility system and other modes, park development, characteristic towns and other businesses also need real endogenous motivation. Only by creating a value model can they develop and have vitality.
Speaking of parks, many survey and design enterprises and construction enterprises are doing parks. I've done some horizontal research. Experts told me that there are 1000 industrial parks in Shanghai, and there may be tens of thousands in China. It is said that most of so many industrial parks are unsuccessful. Doing a good job in industrial parks depends on endogenous motivation. The same is true of the development of characteristic towns. On 20 18 and 20 19, a so-called "death list of characteristic towns" was circulated on the internet. I thought the "death list of characteristic towns" was hype, but I didn't expect it to appear in the People's Daily, which was authoritative. It seems that the death list of characteristic towns really lives up to its reputation.
What do these examples show? It shows that if there is no endogenous motivation, all this will not be developed for a long time by the enthusiasm of the policy.
The third is the watershed of investment power.
Since the reform and opening up, our country's investment in fixed assets has increased in an all-round way, and now investment is entering a differentiation period and a short-term period. I excerpted the original text of the "Proposal" of the Tenth Five-Year Plan, from which we can see the country's new thinking on future investment.
In terms of the total amount, the original text is "maintaining a reasonable growth of investment", which means that the chance of flooding should be impossible. In the past, many leaders in the construction industry often talked about "how much to increase infrastructure investment", which is unlikely to happen in the future.
In terms of structure, the proposal clearly stated: "Give full play to the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure". What is an optimized structure? The stage of "from scratch" has passed, and the future is "from scratch" Many of China's huge investments in the past were invested in places with no economic returns and social effects, such as the same road dug several times a year, empty houses and expressways with few cars. People at the national development and reform commission level should see more similar examples.
In terms of motivation, what is the motivation of investment? "Give play to the role of government investment in stimulating the vitality of private investment and form a market-led endogenous growth mechanism for investment." The role of the government is an "incitement role". The key investments are private investment and market-oriented investment. What is the key to the sustainability of private investment? Investment needs to make money to be sustainable.
Speaking of investment, what everyone is eagerly looking forward to is infrastructure investment. According to the statistics of fixed assets investment published by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 20 19, it was 12. 1 trillion, and in 20 19, it was 18.2 trillion. Let's look at it from another angle. From the source of funds, 20 17, 15 trillion, 20 18, 14.5 trillion, 20 19, 14.8 trillion. According to the source of funds, infrastructure investment has not increased continuously in recent years. Looking at the source of funds, it mainly includes the national budget, domestic loans, the use of foreign capital, self-raised funds and other five aspects. National budget funds account for 17.5%, domestic loans account for 15.3%, and the two pieces together account for1/3; Most of the infrastructure investment depends on self-raised funds, accounting for 56%. Ladies and gentlemen, how big is our self-financing ability? The eight construction central enterprises have done many PPP projects in recent years, which shows that their self-financing ability is still relatively strong, but what kind of cash flow can they continue to do? This is worth thinking about. Judging from the investment motive, I think it has reached a watershed.
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Chart 1: total infrastructure investment-source of funds
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Chart 2: Proportion of sources of funds for infrastructure investment
The fourth is the watershed of the market.
In the past, the construction was a national flowering, but now it is moving towards a "big country and big city." Urban construction has also changed from comprehensive layout to short board, from extensive construction to quality construction.
First of all, the market structure, the new era basically ended, and the renovation and maintenance market began to grow. I have been talking about this point for several years, such as manufacturing, housing construction and urban infrastructure, and it is difficult to grow any more. In the field of housing construction, there is a saying in the whole country: it is generally forbidden to build more than 500m in big cities, but it is strictly limited to build more than 250m, and the centralized layout should be fully demonstrated above1000 m, and the county houses are mainly multi-storey; In the field of infrastructure, the "7 1 165438" backbone road network and the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" railway network were basically completed.
What are the characteristics of this area?
The first is that the "Hu Huanyong Line" continues to work, and the population still flows to big cities. What is the "Hu Huanyong Line"? 1935, geographer Hu Huanyong drew this line when studying population. From Heihe in Northeast China to Tengchong in Yunnan, the "Hu Huanyong Line" covers 44% of the country's southeast, has 94% of the population and contributes 96% of GDP. A leader saw this line when he went to the China Population Museum. He said that we must break this line. In fact, in the past 85 years, statistics show that it is very difficult to break it, which may be a basic law.
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Chart 3: Comparison of development on both sides of Hu Huanyong Line
Second, cities with strong economic development are still full of strong construction momentum. List the top 20 cities in China's GDP in 20 19, and only Beijingpaiqian 10 is north of the north-south geographical boundary between Qinling and Huaihe River. So there is a passage on the Internet. I picked it off: "Today, a more important dividing line than Hu Huanyong has quietly appeared on the land of China. It is the "Yangtze River Defense Line" located at 3 1 degree north latitude. 99% people don't realize the importance of this great geographical discovery. Defending this Yangtze River defense line is the top priority in the next five years, that is, during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period. Its success or failure almost determines the outcome of the rise of great powers. "
Chart 4: China's top 20 cities in GDP.
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This is the contrast between the "Hu Huanyong Line" and the northern and southern cities. Economic development may have its own laws, and economic development is the foundation of construction. Without economic development and investment, there is no motivation for construction. Recently, Hua Min, a famous economist and professor at Fudan University, went to Hainan and expressed a feeling. He said that he should be wary of Hainan's "free trade zone" becoming a "free trade zone" in Hainan. So the market has reached a watershed in terms of region and structure.
The fifth is the watershed of business model.
The business model of an enterprise has changed from the "herd effect" in the past to independent thinking and self-persistence, and from the imitation of the past to the clear STP (market segmentation-target market-positioning). I divide the business models of the construction industry into five types, namely 2T, 2G, 2B, 2E and 2C.
2T(to time), the times are changing, and there will be many business models based on new technologies in the construction industry. If we can keep pace with the times, everyone has the opportunity, and some enterprises are entering the construction industry across borders.
2G (for the government), this is an opportunity for capital and large enterprises, large-scale infrastructure construction and PPP mode.
2B(to business), a strategic cooperation opportunity between large enterprises, just like the strategic cooperation between construction enterprises and large developers in Nantong, large real estate enterprises have partners.
2E(to ecosystem), a large number of professional subcontractors, labor, material suppliers and equipment suppliers are gradually forming an ecosystem with large enterprises. How big is the ecosystem of the enterprise? I made an estimate. Take the architecture of China as an example. There are 300,000 people in China Construction, and there are 2.4 million labor services behind them. If each labor service enterprise has 100 employees, then 24,000 enterprises will follow, and with the suppliers of materials and equipment, behind China Construction is an ecosystem of small and medium-sized enterprises. Some large projects, government projects and infrastructure projects are generally inaccessible to small and medium-sized enterprises, and they can also choose to follow large enterprises. This way can also survive well.
2C (For customers), operating projects often need a good customer experience, and home improvement in the decoration industry is also oriented to end customers. I found that most traditional start-ups can't do 2C business well. 2C business is a great challenge for everyone. Our organizational structure, staffing and supply chain system are obviously not suitable for 2C mode, which can neither meet the needs of customers nor be economical.
Why talk about these five business models? I don't think all enterprises are suitable for all businesses. If some businesses are not suitable, don't do it by force. Some survey and design enterprises and construction enterprises used to be keen on capital operation. If they don't build the ability of capital operation, they can't play for two years. I have seen a top design institute become a terrible design institute after several investments, and a secondary engineering bureau of a central enterprise found that investment was a sea of misery after several PPP investments. Fortunately, it is the second-level engineering bureau of central enterprises, otherwise it is a dead sea, which is the risk of business model.
Sixth, the watershed of development momentum.
The traditional development impetus of the construction industry is gradually weakening, and the new impetus is accelerating.
According to the research report of a consulting organization, in the past 20 years, the annual efficiency of global construction industry has increased by 1%, while the annual efficiency of all industries in the world has increased by 3%; I estimate that the efficiency of China's construction industry will probably increase by 1.5% or even 2%, and the progress rate is relatively fast.
What is the driving force for improving the efficiency of China's construction industry? Due to the progress of management, materials and equipment, such as concrete mixing station and shield machine, the efficiency of the industry has been significantly improved; In addition, the progress of technology and traditional information technology has also promoted the development of the industry. However, these traditional driving forces will hardly bring about a breakthrough in efficiency improvement, which can only be 1.5%, and if it is higher, it will be 2%.
So where does the new impetus come from? We may have to look for it from four aspects: enterprise specialization, customer service productization, building industrialization and digitalization of the whole life cycle. Such as productization. When Ford built the Model T, it was reduced from $2,000 to 140. It is conceivable that productization plays a great role in improving efficiency, which deserves our consideration. We can also find value and improve efficiency in the ecological chain of the construction industry, and find efficiency from the integration of value control and core supply chain. For example, many enterprises are now doing centralized procurement, which is one of the directions, but the centralized procurement platform that can really achieve good experience and value is still relatively rare in the industry.
These are the six watersheds I think for your reference.