The "mortgage panic" continued until 2022. At present, there is an embarrassing fact all over the country, that is, there are many people queuing for loans and the lending cycle is prolonged. It is expected that at least after the Spring Festival in 2022.
Recently, the reporter of China Business News contacted China Bank, Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank and other 12 bank loan centers, all of which indicated that due to insufficient loan balance, the personal housing loan business has been suspended or the loan term has been extended to 4-6 months or even longer.
It is understood that it takes at least half a year for Shanghai to apply for a mortgage loan, of which the approval process takes about one month and the loan period is about half a year. Compared with the same period last year, it only takes about 1 month to approve a loan, which shows that the loan period has been greatly extended.
What is the concept of mortgage until 2022? It's mid-September, which means that if you buy a house now, you won't get a loan in May. You will be lucky if the loan can be approved in early 2022. Is that really the case? Is the "mortgage shortage" true?
On June 29, the Securities Times reported that individual city banks also collectively responded to the mortgage emergency. For example, Guangdong Branch said that bank loans are being carried out in an orderly manner, but due to the influence of policies, the overall market mortgage timeliness has slowed down in an orderly manner. Guangdong Construction Bank Branch also said that the mortgage business is being carried out normally and it takes time to wait for the lending cycle. According to CBN, among the hot second-tier cities, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Hefei and other cities have seen the phenomenon of tightening bank mortgage business.
Since the beginning of this year, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission have implemented the "centralized management system for real estate loans". All banks are divided into five grades, and each grade bank has two upper limit indicators, namely "real estate loan ceiling" and "personal mortgage loan ceiling". When this policy was released, it should have been thought that real estate loans would be tightened in an all-round way this year. It can be seen that this will confirm the previous statement of preventing excessive funds from flowing into the real estate market, thus limiting the continuous expansion and financialization of the real estate market bubble.
Facts have proved that the effect of these policies on the overall cooling of the real estate market is still very significant. Because it can be proved from the data that since July, the transaction volume of new housing market and second-hand housing market in various cities has declined. In 20021year, the key monitoring transaction data of 40 cities by relevant institutions showed that the transaction volume of new houses in first-tier cities increased by 9.36%, that in second-tier cities decreased by 22.9 1%, and that in third-and fourth-tier cities decreased by 15.08%. First-tier cities are very resilient due to the advantages of population demand. Under the multiple regulation and the off-season of the property market, the transaction volume still maintained a small increase. Among them, due to the high new sales volume in Shenzhen this month, some of the original properties were put on record, and the transaction volume reached its peak this year, driving the overall transaction volume of first-tier cities to rise.
Because the second-hand house is a data that can best reflect the real situation of the market, the price of the new house market was distorted in the past because some cities implemented price limit and purchase restriction policies, such as a set of second-hand houses in Hangzhou, Chengdu and Nanjing. Therefore, the value of second-hand housing will inevitably affect the "valuation" of the new housing market.
Nowadays, by restricting the suspension of mortgage business, real estate speculators are restricted from using leverage and financial real estate speculation. The increase in mortgage interest rate has become an important means of "stabilizing house prices and stabilizing expectations" in the real estate market, so the regulation of the property market will continue to tighten. From these measures, we can see that 202 1 is just the beginning for the country to get rid of its dependence on the real estate market completely, and there will be more stringent regulatory policies to tighten the property market in the future.
After the credit policy of 20 17 mortgage prepayment is tightened, we should know more about this.
With the rise of housing prices, more and more people choose to borrow money to buy a house. Applying for a loan solves the problem of buying a house for people with limited funds, but it also creates a problem: the more loans, the greater the pressure on monthly supply. Some people choose to repay the loan in advance in order to alleviate the pressure of monthly payment. It should be noted that not everyone is suitable for prepayment, and many people still don't understand several key issues.
Early repayment requires repayment time and amount.
Early repayment does not mean that you can apply if you want. Some banks require repayment for one year before they can apply for early repayment, while others require half a year. Some also stipulate the repayment amount, such as 1 1,000 yuan, and some even require repayment times, which can only be paid once a year. Even provident fund loans with relatively simple repayment operations have similar provisions. Some people who need to repay the loan in one year can apply for early repayment, requiring the repayment amount to be not less than 6 months of housing provident fund loan principal and interest. Some even require loan principal and interest 1 year and annual repayment 1 time. In short, the bank may have requirements on the repayment time, repayment amount and repayment times of prepayment, so it is best to know clearly before buying a house.
There is a fine for prepayment.
In addition to the time and amount of repayment, some banks also require repayment in advance to pay a certain percentage of liquidated damages, because repayment in advance means less interest paid to banks, and banks make up for it by collecting liquidated damages.
There are two ways for general banks to collect liquidated damages.
First, it is calculated according to 2%-5% of the outstanding balance at the time of prepayment, such as a loan of 6,543,800 yuan. After prepayment, there is still 500,000 yuan left, so you have to pay a penalty of 654.38+0,000-25,000 yuan.
The second is to charge interest for several months, such as penalty interest for less than one year for three months; Penalty interest of two months for repayment over one year and less than two years; There is no penalty interest for repaying loans for more than two years.
Due to the policy differences between banks, the above information about the time, amount, liquidated damages, etc. of prepayment should be inquired from banks before signing the loan contract, and relevant matters should be implemented in the contract. Since the beginning of this year, the capital environment of banks has been tightened. In order to alleviate the mortgage balance, some banks in first-and second-tier cities require support for mortgage customers to repay in advance, and even give preferential relief for liquidated damages, which is good news for buyers with prepayment plans.
After prepayment, the remaining loans may not enjoy preferential interest rates.
Usually there are two main ways to repay the mortgage in advance, one is to pay it off in full and the other is to pay it off in part. Some cities have high housing prices and large loans, and few people can pay off the loans in full, so most people will choose to repay the loans in advance. There are two ways to repay the loan in advance: one is to shorten the loan period and keep the monthly repayment amount unchanged, and the other is to reduce the monthly repayment amount and keep the loan period unchanged.
Shortening the loan term can save interest, but after prepayment, the remaining loans need to be re-signed, and the bank will re-examine the loan qualification of the purchaser and implement it in accordance with the latest loan interest rate policy, so it is impossible to enjoy the original low interest rate concessions. This year, the bank credit policy has been tightened, and the preferential interest rates of bank loans in many cities have plummeted. If you want to apply for early repayment by shortening the loan term, you used to enjoy a 15% discount, but now it may become a 10% discount or even a benchmark interest rate. If some lenders have credit problems in the repayment process, their loan interest rate may increase, so we must pay attention to this!
Repaying the loan in advance means less liquidity, so buyers should consider their own economic ability to avoid the decline in quality of life caused by repaying the loan in advance.
For more information, please pay attention to the Beijing Railway Station hotline: 03 12-556973 1.
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Experts call for extending the loan period to 40 years. Why are young people increasingly reluctant to buy a house?
With the continuous improvement of social living standards, more and more people begin to pay attention to the housing problem. Buying a house is not only related to personal life, but also to the normal life of some families. For many young people, buying a house of their own is what they really want to do. Netizens who pay attention to current affairs society may have noticed such a news that experts called for extending the loan time to 40 years. Once this news was released, it attracted the attention of many netizens and the discussion of buying a house.
Although many people want to buy a house, extending the loan time cannot effectively solve the problem of buying a house. Although many people will use the loan money to pay the down payment when buying a house, many people are heavily in debt. Although many people work hard to make money, most of the money is always used to pay off the mortgage every month. There are three main reasons why more and more young people are reluctant to buy a house. The first aspect is that house prices are relatively expensive. No matter in big cities or county towns, good houses are always expensive.
Although many real estate companies have introduced down payment policies, there are still many people who can't buy a house. The second aspect is that loans will affect normal life. If the loan term is extended, not only the borrower but also the lender's children will continue to repay. From this perspective, young people are neither willing to borrow money nor willing to pay it back all the time. No matter how much money is borrowed, the lender must repay it on time and in quantity. Due to the need of repayment, the life and work of the lender will be greatly affected.
The third aspect is the influence of population. Due to the rapid development of society, young people are increasingly reluctant to get married. If more and more young people are unwilling to get married, the fertility rate will drop sharply. If young people borrow money to buy a house, then when young people get old, no one may continue to repay the loan. If the loan cannot be repaid, the house may be repossessed. If you want to promote the sale of houses, experts should put forward some more effective measures and policies.
1 1a-share bank mortgage concentration "crossed the red line" and the mortgage quota was tightened.
The landing of new regulations on real estate loans has caused waves in the personal mortgage loan market.
A few days ago, every time a reporter visited Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places, he found that the personal mortgage quotas of many banks were tightened.
"At present, there is no loan amount for the first suite of individuals, and it is impossible to lend money now, at least until June."
"Our quota here is quite small now. If the customer decides to do it now, we are not sure when we can lend money, and the reply can only be uncertain. "
"March (lending) may be the fastest. This year's situation is particularly grim. On the whole, the central bank will reduce the amount of mortgage loans. "
Some bank staff mentioned that after the new mortgage regulations came into effect, their bank set a very tight mortgage quota, and now lending is very slow.
So under the new regulations, which banks' real estate loans exceed the standard? How many real estate loans will be "squeezed out" of the market? Will the new regulations have an impact on ordinary homebuyers' loans to buy a house? The reporter of National Business Daily counted the proportion of individual housing loans (mortgage loans) and real estate loans in the total loans of 37 listed banks by the end of June last year, and found that the proportion of individual housing loans or real estate loans of 1 1 banks crossed the "red line".
How many banks "exceed the standard"? Nearly 30%!
Nine real estate loans exceeded the standard and eight personal housing loans exceeded the standard.
In recent years, "housing without speculation" has become the main tone of real estate regulation. On the last day of 2020, the People's Bank of China, together with the China Banking Regulatory Commission, released the Notice on Establishing the Management System of the Concentration of Real Estate Loans of Banking Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the Notice) to restrict the real estate loans of banking financial institutions.
In the Notice, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking Regulatory Commission classified the concentration of real estate loans into five levels according to the asset size and institution type of different banks.
Specifically, the first file is also a large Chinese-funded bank, including six state-owned banks: Industrial, Agricultural, China, Construction, Communications, Postal Savings Bank and China Development Bank. These seven banks have a ceiling of 40% for real estate loans and 32.5% for personal housing loans. It is worth noting that the real estate loans referred to here include real estate loans in bank corporate loans and personal housing loans in personal loans.
According to the semi-annual report of A-share listed banks, National Business Daily found that by the end of June 2020, among 37 banks, 1 1 had exceeded the "red line" in personal housing loans or real estate loans, accounting for 29.73%. Specifically, 9 banks' real estate loans exceeded the standard, 8 banks' personal housing loans exceeded the standard, and 6 banks' two loans exceeded the standard.
Among the first batch of large Chinese banks, the balance of real estate loans of six state-owned banks did not cross the red line, but the balance of personal housing loans of two banks slightly exceeded the indicators stipulated in the new regulations, namely China Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank. The concentration of individual housing loans in these two banks was 34.03% and 33.64%, respectively, which exceeded the red line of 32.5% 1.53 percentage points and 1.53 percentage points respectively.
Among the second medium-sized Chinese banks, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank, two national joint-stock banks, both exceeded the standard at the end of June 2020. Among them, China Merchants Bank's personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 24.74% and 33.24% respectively, which exceeded the regulatory ceiling by 4.74 and 5.74 percentage points respectively.
Industrial Bank's personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 25.73% and 33.73% respectively, exceeding 5.73 and 6.23 percentage points. In addition, the proportion of real estate loans of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank also slightly exceeded the red line by 0.43 percentage points.
Among the third small Chinese banks and non-county rural cooperative institutions, the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of four city commercial banks, including Bank of Zhengzhou and Qingdao Bank, exceeded the standard.
It is worth noting that the regulatory authorities have given certain flexibility to the red line indicator of concentration. According to the circular, the branches above the sub-provincial city center branch of the People's Bank of China, together with the branches of the local CBRC, can raise or lower the management benchmark of the concentration of Class III, IV and V real estate loans by 2.5 percentage points on the premise of full demonstration and in light of specific conditions.
The upper limit of real estate loans and the "red line" of personal housing loans corresponding to the tertiary banking institutions where Hangzhou Bank is located are 22.5% and 17.5% respectively. If the supervision determines the upper limit within the range of 2.5 percentage points (that is, real estate loans account for 20%~25% and personal housing loans account for 15% ~ 20%), then from the data disclosed in the semi-annual report,
How much real estate loan funds will be squeezed out in the future?
Static calculation is close to one trillion.
The Notice leaves a transition period for banking financial institutions to adjust their business, stipulating that if the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans exceeds the management requirements by less than 2 percentage points, the transition period for business adjustment is 2 years from the date of implementation of the Notice, that is, 65438+3 1 in February 2022, and 4 years from the date of implementation, that is, the end of 2024.
Regardless of the regulatory requirements of increasing or decreasing the loan concentration of three or four banks by 2.5 percentage points, if we look at the data at the end of June 2020, we can statically calculate the total amount of real estate loans exceeding the standard of listed banks under the new regulations, and we can also roughly estimate the loan funds that banks will decline under the regulatory requirements of business adjustment in the future.
According to statistics, among the 37 listed banks, 1 1 bank real estate loans or personal housing loans exceeded the standard. After calculation, the total loan of this 1 1 bank has reached 9.51900 million yuan.
Xia Dan, chief real estate analyst of Bank of Communications Jin Yan Center, told the National Business Daily that although these banks are under pressure to reduce the scale of real estate loans, they have been given a transition period of 2-4 years due to the "no sharp turn" policy, which can be appropriately extended according to the actual situation. Generally speaking, the adjustment pressure is not great. It is roughly estimated that the total amount of stock to be reduced each year is about 200 billion real estate loans and 300 billion personal housing loans, which has little impact.
She further pointed out that, specifically, among banks that exceed the red line, large banks have fewer excess points, and only some medium-sized banks and city commercial banks have more excess points. Possible measures are as follows: First, "substitution", appropriate allocation of credit products with risk-return ratio similar to real estate loans, and appropriate increase in the issuance of personal loan products such as credit cards;
The second is "molecular subtraction", which collects and reduces overdue and non-performing real estate loans and increases the circulation of existing loans through asset securitization;
The third is to "add extra points", support the real economy and expand loans in other fields.
Nearly 800 billion individual housing loans need to be reduced.
Survey: Many banks have tightened their mortgage quotas.
According to the reporter's statistics, 8 of the 37 listed banks account for more than the red line designated by the supervision.
Judging from the overall pressure drop scale, the reporter learned through static calculation that in order to adjust business compliance, banks will probably reduce personal housing loans by about 790.3 billion yuan in the future.
Banks will reduce personal housing loan funds by nearly 800 billion yuan, which makes some mortgage buyers worry about whether it will affect individuals' application for housing loans. Will it be more difficult to apply for a housing loan in the future?
Li Guangzi, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the notice has limited impact on ordinary property buyers. He told reporters that mortgage loans are relatively high-quality assets of banks at present, and buyers can also turn to other banks with low concentration of real estate loans to apply for loans.
Xia Dan told reporters that banks will not reduce the pressure of individual housing loans and residents' normal demand for new housing loans will not be significantly affected if there is no abnormality in repayment. Just need, especially the first set of just need, is still the direction of strong policy support.
However, the process of qualification examination and loan approval of loan individuals may be stricter, and the loan time may be lengthened. In particular, the introduction of policies at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is often the node of "returning blood" to bank credit lines, vigorously increasing loans and the backlog of loans at the end of last year. In the short term, the seasonal surge in new personal mortgage loans may be stable. In addition, with the decrease in the supply of credit resources, the loan price may also increase.
A few days ago, a reporter from the National Business Daily investigated personal housing loans in Shanghai and Shenzhen, and found that the quotas of many banks were tightened, and even some stock banks in Shanghai indicated that the loan time was uncertain.
The staff of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shanghai told the reporter that after the new mortgage regulations came out, the bank where it was located set a very tight mortgage quota. Now the loan is very slow and there is no way to guarantee the timeliness. "Our quota here is quite small now. If the customer decides to do it now, we are not sure when we can lend money, and the reply can only be uncertain. " The staff of a branch of China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen also told the reporter that if the customer handles it now, it is expected that the loan will be released in March.
Similarly, a credit officer of a branch of Industrial Bank in Shanghai said: "At present, there is no loan quota for the first suite of individuals, so it is not possible to lend money now, at least until June. If it is a second suite, it may be faster, but now the quota is also very tight, and it is not certain when to lend money. "
The reporter learned from a branch of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank that the bank controls the mortgage amount every month, and it takes more than one month from acceptance to lending. "This is the minimum time. Almost the same as before. We are better. We have been controlling (quotas). Now some banks (lending) take three or four months. "
The price comes after the quota. According to Yangcheng Evening News, some real estate agents said that they had received price adjustment notices from ICBC and CCB, saying that the interest rate of the first home mortgage rose to "LPR55 basis points"; The interest rate of the second home mortgage loan rose to "75 basis points". This price adjustment information has also been confirmed by the relevant staff of the four major banks of Guangzhou Workers and Peasants Construction.
Which over-standard banks are under pressure to adjust their credit structure?
70% of new loans in Bank of Zhengzhou depend on real estate.
For 1 1 banks that exceed the standard, although this supervision has given a transition period of 2 to 4 years, judging from the new loan structure of some banks in the first half of 2020, they will still face adjustment pressure in the future.
Judging from the structure of new loans in the first half of 2020, among the 1 1 banks, there are still 9 new real estate loans or personal housing loans, accounting for more than the upper limit set by the central bank. Specifically, the proportion of new personal housing loans and new real estate loans in five banks, including China Merchants Bank and Bank of Zhengzhou, is higher than the upper limit; The proportion of real estate loans of Qingdao Bank, Industrial Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank "exceeded the standard"; Xiamen Bank only exceeds the proportion of individual housing loans.
Overall, among the 1 1 "over-standard" banks, in the first half of 2020, 3 new real estate loans accounted for more than 50% of all new loans, and 5 banks accounted for 30%-50%.
Among the big state-owned banks, the loan ratio of CCB and Postal Savings Office did not exceed the standard.
Among the joint-stock banks, housing-related loans of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, China Merchants Bank and Industrial Bank accounted for 49.3 1%, 37.76% and 33. 18% of the total new loans in the first half of the year, among which individual housing loans accounted for 36.72%, 25.54% and 18.07% respectively.
Soochow securities's research report pointed out that limited mortgage loans have an objective impact on the operation of China Merchants Bank, because mortgage loans are the quality business of commercial banks at present. Although the rate of return is not high, the non-performing rate is very low and the capital consumption is very small (converted into 50% of risky assets). However, China Merchants Bank has a rich retail product line, and consumer loans and personal business loans may replace mortgages and become the main force of new retail loans in the next few years.
Among the small and medium-sized banks, it is noteworthy that Bank of Zhengzhou, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank and Hangzhou Bank all accounted for more than half of the new loans in the first half of the year. Specifically, Bank of Zhengzhou accounts for 7 1.9%, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank accounts for 52.96%, and Hangzhou Bank accounts for 5 1.88%.
The analysis of the new loan structure of the above three banks in the first half of the year shows that the proportion of individual housing loans in Bank of Zhengzhou is as high as 49.22%, which also means that half of the bank's new loans in the first half of the year come from individual housing mortgage loans. Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank and Hangzhou Bank account for a relatively high proportion of loans in the real estate industry.
In addition, the housing-related loans of Qingdao Bank and Xiamen Bank accounted for 25.29% and 9.32% of the total new loans in the first half of the year, and the personal housing loans accounted for 1 1.72% and 20.38% respectively.
Can banks that do not exceed the standard sit back and relax?
More than half of the new loans of Jiangsu Bank are real estate loans.
Then, in the future, can banks whose balance ratio does not exceed the standard sit back and relax? Every time the reporter noticed, statically, as of the end of June 2020, there were 26 listed banks that did not exceed the regulatory limit. According to the structure of new loans in the first half of 2020, there are 10 banks "exceeding the standard".
For example, among joint-stock banks, Ping An Bank's new real estate loans accounted for 38.77% of the total new loans, and Huaxia Bank accounted for 30.75%, both exceeding the regulatory limit of 27.5%. The new personal housing loans of CITIC Bank accounted for 25.4% of the new loans, exceeding the regulatory requirements of 20%.
In addition, there is also a phenomenon of "exceeding the standard" in the new loans of seven small and medium-sized banks. For example, Nong Yu Commercial Bank, Changsha Bank and Zhangjiagang Bank accounted for 19.22%, 17.56% and 14.27% of all new loans in the first half of the year, and the corresponding upper limits were 17.5% and17.27% respectively. New real estate loans of Guiyang Bank accounted for 36.37% of all new loans, exceeding the regulatory requirements of 22.5%.
The two loans of Jiangsu Bank, Suzhou Bank and Jiangyin Bank all exceeded the standard. It is worth noting that in the first half of 2020, the proportion of real estate loans of Jiangsu Bank was the highest among the 26 banks that did not exceed the standard. Personal housing loans and real estate loans accounted for 29.36% and 56.97% of new loans, respectively, far above the regulatory upper limit of 20% and 27.5%.
It should be noted that from the perspective of the new loan structure in the first half of the year alone, some banks will be close to the edge of "exceeding the standard". For example, China Bank's new real estate loans accounted for 36.86% of the new loans in the first half of the year, which was close to the regulatory requirements of 40%. According to soochow securities's research report, it is expected that the credit resources of state-owned banks will continue to tilt towards small and micro loans in the process of adjustment, so as to meet the mortgage control policy and encourage small and micro loans.
Followed by Zheshang Bank, China CITIC Bank and Minsheng Bank, accounting for 26.93%, 26.82% and 26.42% respectively, close to the regulatory requirements of 27.5%.
At the same time, many banks have not exceeded the standard, and real estate loans account for a relatively small proportion of new loans. For example, Wuxi Bank, Nanjing Bank, Changshu Bank and Sunong Bank accounted for 65,438+00% ~ 65,438+05% of the total new loans in the first half of the year. Bank of Ningbo and Shanghai banks accounted for less than 10%.
Guo Sheng Securities pointed out in the research report that the overall level of institutions without adjustment pressure will be maintained, and there is limited room for future real estate loan growth. The circular stipulates that banking financial institutions whose real estate loan concentration meets the management requirements should steadily carry out real estate loan-related business and keep the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans basically stable. It reflects the intention of supervision to reasonably control the scale of real estate loans.
What changes have taken place in the real estate loans of financial institutions?
The growth rate continues to decline.
After analyzing the loan structure data of 37 listed banks, let's look at the changes in the scale of real estate loans of financial institutions across the country. According to the statistical report on the loan investment of financial institutions of the central bank, the growth rate of real estate loans of financial institutions in China has continued to decline in the past year.
Specifically, from the end of 20 19 to the end of the third quarter of 2020, the balance of RMB real estate loans of financial institutions was 44.4 1 trillion yuan, 46. 16 trillion yuan, 47.40 trillion yuan and 48.83 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.8%.
In addition, the balance of RMB real estate loans accounted for 29%, 28.8 1%, 28.69% and 28.83% respectively.
Looking at the incremental data of financial institutions' real estate loans, it increased by 1.75 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2020, 2.99 trillion yuan in the first half of the year and 4.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, accounting for the increase of RMB loans in the same period respectively.