? At present, the real estate market in many third-and fourth-tier cities is terrible, and the supply exceeds demand several times. Some buildings in mountainous areas are built very high, just like chopsticks inserted there, which is very scary. ?
Recently organized by Country Garden Group? Exploring new urbanization? At the theme salon, Wang Shao, secretary general of Guangdong Real Estate Association, expressed his concern about the current situation of third-and fourth-tier cities. Ghost town? Empty city? This phenomenon is very worrying.
Why are third-and fourth-tier cities easy to appear at present? Ghost town? Empty city? ? How to solve it in the new urbanization construction? Ghost town? Empty city? problem At this salon event, people in the industry conducted in-depth discussions on this issue.
Urbanization is not equal to real estate.
At present, the real estate market in many third-and fourth-tier cities is terrible, and the supply exceeds demand several times. Some buildings in mountainous areas are built very high, just like chopsticks inserted there, which is very scary.
Q: The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward a new road to urbanization, which one stands out? New? Word, this? New? This word emphasizes that the urbanization we are pursuing is the integration of urban and rural areas, the interaction between production and cities, land conservation, ecological livability and the coordinated development of new rural communities in large, medium and small towns. However, it is observed that there are still many real estate bubbles in many places, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities, and some have already appeared. Ghost town? Empty city? Phenomenon. Why do these phenomena run counter to the new concept of urbanization?
He Jinchao: After the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government proposed to build a new type of urbanization. What are the key points? New? Word sum? Town? Literally, this means that in the new round of urbanization, it is necessary to highlight? New? In other words, you can't take the traditional old road and focus on it at the same time? Town? Make a fuss about it.
This means that we don't need to build megacities, and we don't need to build new megacities, but real estate enterprises should lay out in small and medium-sized cities. All real estate enterprises should have such an understanding that real estate enterprises have a deep relationship with urbanization, but urbanization does not mean real estate development.
In the past, did the academic circles put forward it? Three rules in one? Social and economic development planning, land use planning and urban construction planning should be trinity, not independent, but in the past few decades, the three have not really integrated, so many new problems have emerged in our urban construction, including Country Garden, and many real estate enterprises can only follow the baton of the government. Once the government misdirects the baton, there will be a so-called real estate bubble.
Wang Shao: In 20 12, the demographic dividend of China officially entered an inflection point, and urbanization also rose to the development height of the national strategy. It seems that the real estate industry has also formed a * * * knowledge: urbanization is a big plus for China's future real estate. But in my opinion, don't be too optimistic about the benefits of urbanization and real estate. We should be rational. New urbanization provides a broad market for real estate, but urbanization will not reduce housing prices.
At present, the county market in China supports large-scale and large-scale real estate development, but it hides the risk of bubble. After the financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, many enterprises adopted the strategy of encircling cities from rural areas to develop in third-and fourth-tier cities. Now the real estate market in many third-and fourth-tier cities is terrible, and the supply exceeds demand several times. Some buildings in mountainous areas are built very high, just like chopsticks inserted there, which is very scary. The economic strength and consumption power of third-and fourth-tier cities have been over-consumed. In the process of urbanization in the future, how to develop real estate moderately and where to go are all worthy of consideration by the industry.
Zhou Limin: Urbanization is the biggest carrier for the new central government to stimulate domestic demand. The new party and state leaders hope that new urbanization will become the starting point of various reforms and break the monopoly of interest groups. The new urbanization has designed a series of institutional reforms, such as household registration system reform, rural land circulation, urban-rural dual system reform and so on. It can be promoted from top to bottom through urbanization.
However, at present, a common problem in promoting urbanization in China is that the government is dominant. For example, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, Henan Province has done a relatively high level in the exploration of new urbanization, but there have also been some problems, which are manifested in the fact that the exploration at the grassroots level has been a bit radical. The way adopted is to develop land from the urban-rural fringe, which nominally increases the intensive use of land and actually gives many real estate developers opportunities. The new town is called a new community, but the quality and planning are relatively rough.
Land finance gave birth to real estate bubble.
Housing construction is only a small part of urbanization. Without industry, it is useless to build houses, bridges and roads.
Q: So how to solve this problem in the process of promoting new urbanization? Ghost town? Empty city? Question?
He Jinchao: Now we are talking about new urbanization, in fact, we still have to solve what we proposed more than ten years ago. Three rules in one? The future towns should be a new type of urbanization based on the overall coordination of the three plans. This new type of urbanization does not mean that the whole country should blossom everywhere, but that it should be treated differently and the urbanization process should be promoted according to the law of population migration.
As far as Guangdong is concerned, the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta have always been the focus of Guangdong's economic development, but housing enterprises should not only be optimistic about these nine cities in business, but also optimistic about cities in eastern and western Guangdong such as Zhanjiang and Maoming. At present, Zhanjiang has a steel base and Maoming has a petrochemical base. We believe that the place driven by industry is the place where people gather. As long as there are people, there is a housing demand.
While promoting urbanization, we should pay attention to the cultivation of urban industrial economy. Without an industrial base, all we have built is? Empty city? Housing construction is only a small part of urbanization. Without industry, it is useless to build houses, bridges and roads. Only the government can guide who drives the industry and who plans, but it is difficult for a single housing enterprise to promote it.
Wang Shao: My point is that new urbanization can no longer be the idea that local governments rely too much on land finance by developing real estate, which can easily lead to real estate bubbles or economic bubbles. In the process of new urbanization, an urgent problem for the government is the imbalance of urban dual structure.
Zhou Limin: I think the promotion of new urbanization needs the active participation of enterprises, not completely led by the government. The steady progress of urbanization can not be achieved by the government alone, but by various social forces.
Q: Just now, everyone mentioned to solve it? Ghost town? Empty city? The problem must be realized? Integration of production and city? So how can we do it? Integration of production and city? ?
He Jinchao: Industry is the support of urban development, and the jobs created by its development attract industrial population to settle and live in cities. People are the necessary conditions for the existence of the real estate market. Do it. Combination of production and city? It is necessary to establish a reasonable industrial system, optimize the industrial pattern, strengthen the industrial support for urbanization development, and achieve a balance between employment and housing. The projects we strive to develop can correspond to the functions of local industrial development, public services and employment gathering.
Wang Shao: Really? Integration of production and city? It is still necessary to focus on developing new industrialization, create space for urban service industry through the development of new industrialization, solve the imbalance of urban dual structure, and solve the employment, medical care and education problems of new farmers in cities with the help of household registration system reform. At the same time, we will continue to promote the process of agricultural modernization, realize the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, solve the problems of farmers' employment, farmers' income increase and rural stability, and provide support for urbanization.
Zhou limin:? Integration of production and city? In the end, it is necessary to attract people and gather popularity through industrial development. Generally speaking, on the basis of rationality and legality, enterprises can actually play a more dynamic advantage in promoting the integration of production and city, intervening in urban planning and operation, and promoting urbanization.