"Some way", which way?
0 1
Why is kevin kelly so accurate in seeing the future every time?
It must be hard to see the future clearly.
But there is one person in the world who is very good at it. He is a futurist-kevin kelly.
1994, in his book Out of Control, he accurately predicted more than a dozen core technologies affecting the world today, such as smart phones, artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
At that time, it was 1994, and the contact information all over the world still depended on fixed telephones and letters. His prediction looked like a gobbledygook at that time.
So people suspect that he came back from the future.
In fact, kevin kelly practiced a method to the extreme:
See the "whole system" behind all projects.
For example, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, smart phones and so on are just an organ of a "living body".
And when these "organs" are combined, there is actually a larger life system. Kevin kelly called it an "evolutionary body".
And if you master the trend law of "evolution body", you can easily see how long each single technology and a specific "organ" has appeared and developed.
This is his way of seeing the future clearly.
Similarly, you can see your future clearly in this way.
For example, you say it is difficult to make money, and your girlfriend doesn't know how much money you can make in the next few years.
But in fact, making money is only a single item, and there is a hidden system behind your "money, contacts, ability, company, customers, emotions, learning" and so on.
You have to figure out what system you are immersed in and how to build the "system" you want.
So, what do you think?
02
Every writer should think about "the whole system"
In order to facilitate your understanding, I use my own case to tell the whole story. General background:
I am a professional writer and write in-depth articles. Two years ago, I published a book, Cognitive Subversion.
At the same time, I am also a signing author of platforms such as Palm Reading and Zhihu.
In the first two years, the reading volume of each article was basically about 5W, and the average official account of WeChat was 5K.
But last year, it also encountered a "flow" dilemma:
I don't want to write articles about hot spots and stories; But traffic is still very important after all.
I got lost in the dilemma.
So, how to deal with this problem?
Think about the "whole system" behind a bunch of items.
One more word.
My first formal job was doing data analysis in a consulting company. When I first heard the word system, my scalp was numb.
But the 50-year-old CEO from Germany said in an internal training:
The automobile system is complex enough, but in fact, ordinary people can control the automobile system as long as they master the four key elements of throttle, brake, steering wheel and gear.
What is the writer's "accelerator, brake and steering wheel"?
In fact, it is the "reader", "content" and "interaction" between the author and the reader.
We can draw on A4 paper.
First of all, on the paper, draw a vertical axis, from bottom to top, representing the three most important levels of readers:
1, reader
Those who only read your articles. This means two things:
First, what you have written recently just meets his needs.
Second, he really likes you.
2. Questioner
Someone who can ask you questions. Of course, it also includes you asking him questions. This is interaction.
He asks you questions to show that he is not satisfied with your current information output, or wants to get some more personalized suggestions.
In fact, "reading" is a state in which both sides are curled up and closed, and "asking questions" is a state in which they begin to open.
3. Practitioners
Someone who can apply what you say to work and life, and even persist in practicing.
If you have classes, they are also the most active people.
From reading → asking questions → practicing, this represents the process of users' trust in you gradually upgrading.
Then we draw a horizontal axis on the paper, which is the "content" level of your output.
From left to right, they are:
I. Opinion information
The typical representative is the article of WeChat official account. Used to analyze or solve a problem.
Often a problem is solved by several small knowledge points.
B, structural information
Typical representative, "get" a course on the App.
For example, Wu Zhihong's psychology course is a systematic explanation, which can help others get an introduction to a field.
C, customized information
Typical representative, "online" personal consultation, new elite career planning consultation, McKinsey consulting service, etc.
Psychological counseling, maybe including it.
Structural information usually gives you a design of a building. But to make a building exquisite, you need an old master to hold hands.
From viewpoint → structure → customization, this represents the process of users' demand for information, from scattered points to systems and from shallow to deep.
So, let's go back to this picture.
Put 1, 2, 3 of "user" and A, B and C of "content" together, and you get a nine-square grid.
This is very similar to the shape of Chongqing hot pot. Each of these fields, that is, the different "interactive" relationship between authors and users.
After understanding this system, content creators will know how to develop their own content matrix.
03
Let's look at how they develop content from the perspective of several content titles.
1, get the App
Interval: A 1, A2, B 1, B3.
A 1 Luo Ji's thinking is originally a single content sharing. At the beginning of the content, he sucked a lot of powder. Now get the home page, also as a free drainage tool.
A2 is to get tips and invite experts from all walks of life to answer different people's questions. Why A2 instead of C2? Because all the answers are universal, not real consultation. Zhihu's answer is also in A2.
B 1 is the core product to get the App, and every paid column is systematic, such as psychology in Wu Zhihong, five-minute business school in Liu Run, economics in Xue Zhaofeng, etc. To introduce you to different disciplines.
B3 is for college entrance examination, the core of which is to make you constantly and deliberately think about things in your own field with the thinking mode of different industries.
2. Mi Meng
Interval: A 1
I really don't want to cite her as a case, but Mi Meng is indeed the representative of the official WeChat account.
In fact, her core area is only A 1, and occasionally sort out readers' questions and paragraphs to form A2.
Profit basically depends on advertising, which is simple and rude.
3. Action school
Interval: B3 A3, B 1
Activism is a very magical existence. In the early days, they relied on A3, which was similar to punching in 1000 words a day earlier.
Then drainage gradually developed into B 1 (paid column) and B3, which needed offline practice.
4. Liu Run
Interval: A 1, A2, B 1, B3, C2, C3.
Why do you want to mention Liu Run? Because he spans three fields: A, B and C, and he is the representative of China who gives full play to his personal IP knowledge.
A 1 is an official account of "Liu Run" WeChat, and its status is getting better and better with high quality.
A2 is his knowledge planet, the island of evolution. Basically used to answer questions or share more.
B 1 is the column of 5-minute business school, 30 lectures on business insight and a brief history of business.
B3 is his offline class, with a lot of business thinking and practice.
C2 and C3 are his business consultants and the core of Runmi.
04
So, how should I plan my personal writing in the future?
After seeing this "system", you will find how naive I am, worrying about the idea of "flow" (A 1 area) all day.
I wrote profound thoughts, wrote hot topics, shouted emotions, and wrote chicken soup stories, and naturally died miserably.
Two months later, I thought it over.
I should have entered these intervals: B 1, B2, B3, C3.
Therefore, to do this, three things need to be done.
The first thing: from A 1 to B 1.
A 1, a single text, actually knows everything.
Competition is the ability to collect and piece together materials. The great gods basically ask their younger brothers for help.
I don't have a younger brother. I prefer to write honestly.
And I prefer to write thoughtful articles.
What is "thinking"?
As we all know today, we can see the complex relationship between individual elements and even the ability of the system behind them.
A system has "throttle, brake, steering wheel and gear", and I can really write it clearly in an article. But it will only make you wander around the entrance.
However, a car is a car, including "traditional system, braking system, safety system, electrical equipment" and so on.
So you must write systematically.
Other people's B 1 must be paid. I can post the content of B 1 or publish a book on WeChat official account for free.
But at the core, I need to know what users want.
Therefore, I will set up a topic selection and writing Committee. If you are my diehard, or you are a writer yourself, and want to improve your skills, you can trust me privately.
The second thing: B3 and C3
B3 is a thinking training camp, and C3 is a personal consultation.
The core of B3 is to let you learn to consult yourself.
If you don't know how to develop your product, you will consult McKinsey.
If you don't know your career direction in the next few years, ask a career counselor.
You will pay a high consulting fee for all this. But they all use the same method, that is, look at the system's ability (based on system dynamics).
This ability needs to be learned by yourself.
For example, yesterday, a friend who was a psychological counselor wanted to learn to write and give him counseling and drainage.
It cost two thousand yuan to write a training camp, but I still feel that I am not on the right track.
Because others have instilled more information into him without thinking, and they don't know the principle.
Writing is a complex system. Not personal skills.
To learn skills, 9.9 yuan can buy an e-book. What he needs is to establish his own writing system.
So you can come up with one or two events that you are most puzzled about to train camp, and learn how to consult yourself step by step by building one or two systems under the systematic process and timely feedback.
On the other hand, C3 may be a more complicated problem. For example, the company encounters some complicated problems and can't handle them by itself. Then pay for the consultation.
And I also began to need to accumulate some individual counseling cases.
The direction is mainly the workplace, life direction and entrepreneurship.
The third thing: B2
B2 is a wonderful existence, and you will find that there is almost no such category in the domestic content field.
Systematic questioning and interactive knowledge field, what is this?
Put Zhihu's answers to various questions together? This is actually useless.
For example, if you travel with your girlfriend and she asks you to take photos of her, it may be difficult to help you by searching abcdefg tutorials online.
Ideally, artificial intelligence will immediately recommend the information of b→c→g to you according to the current scene.
We often talk about building a knowledge system, but what you need is not a knowledge system with all the knowledge.
It is the specific path you need in the current scene.
This product, in science fiction movies, has many scene descriptions.
I have also written many specific articles and made videos, so I won't say much here.
This is also the mission of Super Brain, which was established last year. For this reason, we also developed the demo of MindIn system. But it seems early. I'll deal with B 1 and B3 first.
But B2 is my ideal.
05
last words
Kevin kelly put forward the theory of "1000 die-hard fans" in his book Technical Elements.
In the fields of "bestseller" and "explosive writing", I have contacted and entered, and I should leave and start again.
There is basically no update. I am now on the official account of WeChat, with only 40,000 fans, which is really pitiful.
But even so, I decided to give up 39,000 of them and concentrate on this 1000.
Within a year, their distribution is roughly like this.
Say sorry here first, because I didn't think clearly about my future direction before. I don't know that "interaction" is actually the most important link, so WeChat is full of 5,000 people and there is not much time to establish connections with everyone.
Which area do you want to be my connector? B 1？ B3？ C3？ Or can we discuss the future B2 together?
Please leave a message or add me to WeChat (18 156392, but please pay attention).
Kevin kelly once said:
We need to change our way of thinking. Because now we are in an era of innovation, and innovation is more important than wealth creation, economic development and our times.
In fact, I sincerely hope that more people will laugh at us:
They will do "thinking" when they are young, which is meaningless to them.
Things that seem meaningless to them.
I hope we can accept the ridicule of the times together. Then destroy them with 100 times more power than them.
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