It seems that only a sharp drop in house prices can solve the "hate" in your heart.
But this is not in line with common sense and economic laws, nor is it a correct view of real estate.
At present, house prices are on the rise, but many cities lack sufficient support. House prices in these cities are gradually adjusting back, but the adjustment will not fall to the level of 10 years ago.
Ten-year house price in 2009, China's new real estate cycle has just begun. If you went back ten years ago, you would definitely try to buy a house.
1. Will house prices fall in China? Whether house prices will fall or not needs to be analyzed from macro, meso and micro perspectives. The differentiation of house prices in different cities cannot be generalized.
(1) From a macro perspective, the trend of house prices is judged by cycles.
The rise and fall of house prices fluctuate periodically, and expert real estate investors pay close attention to the macro situation because it involves the cycle of real estate rise and fall.
Small loops are nested in large loops, and small loops often contain ups and downs. Judging the small cycle, you can get good returns in half a year.
(2) Different cities have different ups and downs at the meso level.
Cities are divided, and the resource advantages of first-tier cities are getting stronger and stronger, followed by provincial capitals and second-tier cities with strong economies, followed by third-and fourth-tier cities with stable economic growth and county-level cities with slightly poor economies.
Different cities have different price increases. In recent years, housing prices in first-tier cities have continued to rise. From 15 to 18, the third-and fourth-tier cities soared in the wave of monetization of shed reform, but returned to normal after the increase.
For real estate investors, choosing a city is very important. My experience is: I chose the right core city, the right core area, and the right quality property in the core position. I don't have to worry about the future increase, and the income is certain.
(3) Micro-level subtle features affect housing prices.
Different areas of the city are divided, different areas in the area are divided, and different types, orientations, floors and so on in the area are divided.
For example, in big cities, large luxury houses are becoming more and more popular, and the increase of luxury houses far exceeds that of ordinary houses. This is because the characteristics of high-quality real estate are irreplaceable and have more advantages in future competition; Ordinary houses have strong substitutability, and the increase is not as good as that of luxury houses.
If we can seize the opportunity of differentiation and rise, we can usher in excess returns. But if you buy the wrong area, then the house price will be sideways or negative.
2. When will the house price fall? Brother Peng thinks there are several possibilities:
(1) The developer took the initiative to reduce the price.
The most direct situation is that developers take the initiative to cut prices. As the current market situation is not good and the sales situation is not up to expectations, it is very likely that developers will adjust their prices. As long as there is a price adjustment, it is very unfair to the owners who have already bought the property. If you buy it, you lose money, so many owners may find trouble with the sales office.
Therefore, developers will be very cautious, and price reduction is a very serious matter that hurts customers. Developers will not take the initiative to reduce prices unless they have to.
In addition, there is also a situation where developers specialize in special rooms for promotion, which generally does not arouse the resentment of owners, because most of the properties have been digested in the middle or end of sales, so some poorly sold houses can be used for price reduction promotion.
Developers usually choose holidays or Chinese New Year when doing promotions, so many real estate promotions will be during holidays.
(2) government price limit order
This is also the most direct policy regulation. The skyrocketing real estate in many places has caused a very negative social impact. Then the government may directly issue a price limit order, allowing developers to record the newly sold commercial housing in the government. If they don't meet the government's record price requirements, they won't get the documents.
In this way, developers know very well that the price is expected to be adjusted, and finally the effect of price reduction will be achieved. Although this kind of administrative means is simple and rude, it is effective, the price reduction is obvious, and there will be a "overnight decline".
(3) Central monetary supervision
The central bank can make house prices fall overnight through monetary control policies, such as directly raising the benchmark mortgage interest rate, so that the mortgage interest rate of buyers will rise, and the cost of buying houses will increase, which will directly hit those who just need to buy houses and investment customers.
In this case, the willingness of buyers is reduced, and groups that are relatively sensitive to mortgages will choose to wait and see, so developers will sell less and house prices will fall.
From the experience of the whole country and even the whole world, if the country shrinks its balance sheet, that is, adopts a tight monetary policy, it will be a major blow to real estate, which is likely to lead to a sharp drop in house prices, but this kind of damage to the economy is strong and will not be easily done.
Therefore, the situation in different cities is different, and the rise and fall of house prices cannot be generalized.
No one can accurately predict when house prices will fall. Only in the case of a general economic downturn can house prices be adjusted back. For example, in 2008 and 20 13, house prices in many places entered freezing point.
As for the future, we can only look at it while walking, and it is basically not allowed to predict when the house price will fall.
3. What was the impact of falling house prices on ten years ago? Housing prices have kidnapped the development of the national economy, and real estate has become a pillar industry in many areas. Economic growth depends on the development of land finance and real estate industry. In the development of empty cities, real estate is often built first, and then industry is built.
The price of real estate has fallen by half, which is a heavy blow to the national economy. Not only the rights and interests of buyers have been hit hard, but also the funds of financial systems such as banks are deeply embedded in real estate.
In the end, banks may only get some red books, but these are only bad debts and bad assets; For the financial system, once there are large-scale bad debts and bad debts and the invested funds cannot be recovered, it will face a serious economic crisis and liquidity crisis.
If the house price falls to 10 years ago, there will be a very serious social crisis and instability, so our country will not allow the house price to fall on a large scale.
However, the high housing prices in some cities have deviated from the fundamentals, so with the regulation of policies, the housing prices in these places will definitely return to normal levels.
The house price has fallen to the situation ten years ago, will you still buy a house? Finally, let's talk about the situation that house prices have fallen to ten years ago. Will people who can't afford a house buy it?
Not necessarily.
Because the mood of real estate is to buy up and not buy down, once someone sees the house price falling, it is likely that they will continue to wait and see with money, not necessarily making moves, waiting for the house price to fall further, but he doesn't know when it will fall to the bottom.
Therefore, the house price has fallen, and some people may not buy it. Those who have already intended to buy it may be short of funds. This time is in line with his budget and may not be sold.
Of course, some people are willing to lay out when the market is in a downturn and need to screen high-quality targets. No matter how low the house price falls, they won't worry about the object of their screening.
When waiting for the market to pick up, high-quality properties will definitely rise first.