"When buying a house last year, the mortgage interest rate was around 5.35%, and now the interest rate of the first home loan in Wenzhou is around 4. 15%. 1 10,000 houses are similar to those in 700 yuan every month. In the past two days, the state has adjusted the relevant housing credit policy, saying that the mortgage interest rate may fall further. " Miss Wang said.
On the evening of September 29th, the People's Bank of China and the Banking Regulatory Commission of China issued a notice and decided to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages. For cities where the sales price of new commercial housing is lower than that of the same period last year, the lower limit of the first set of commercial personal housing loan interest rate can be relaxed in stages before the end of 2022.
According to the data provided by the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, at least 23 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the National Bureau of Statistics meet the requirements of the New Deal of the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Wenzhou is among these 23 cities, which is why Miss Wang regrets not choosing the right time to get on the bus.
The downside of mortgage interest rates has further expanded. In this context, what is the reaction of all parties in the property market in these 23 cities? Can it boost market transactions and sweep away the gloom of the property market? These problems have now become the focus, causing widespread concern.
The personal mortgage interest rate in 23 cities may exceed the lower limit of 4. 1%.
On the evening of September 29th, the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice, deciding to adjust the differentiated housing credit policy in stages.
According to the data provided by the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, at least 23 of the 70 large and medium-sized cities in the National Bureau of Statistics meet the requirements of the New Deal of the Central Bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
Among them, there are 8 second-tier cities, namely Harbin, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Dalian, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Kunming and Guiyang; Third-tier cities 15 are Quanzhou, Wenzhou, Luzhou, Yueyang, Yichang, Beihai, Dali, Qinhuangdao, Zhanjiang, Baotou, Anqing, Jining, Changde, Xiangyang and Guilin.
At the same time, according to RealData monitoring, in September 2022, the interest rate of the mainstream first home loan in 103 key cities was 4. 15%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was 4.9 1%. After the issuance of this notice, the mortgage interest rates of the 23 cities involved may exceed the lower limit of 4. 1%.
Li, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, said in an interview with China Times on September 30 that due to risk considerations, in cities with falling housing prices, the number of banks is small, the competition is insufficient, and the mortgage interest rate is high. On the contrary, in cities with hot property market, people think that housing demand has great potential, housing prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, and competition is great. Moreover, there are many banks and great competition, but the interest rate is low, which is not good for stabilizing housing prices and property markets in non-hot cities.
To this end, the reporter of China Times inquired about the implementation of the first home loan interest rate on September 30 from Tianjin Construction Bank, Wenzhou Industrial and Commercial Bank and Wuhan Bank of China respectively. These banks all said, "At present, there is no news of adjusting the relevant mortgage interest rate internally. If it is to be implemented, the official document shall prevail. "
In addition, according to the staff of Tianjin Construction Bank, after August 20 this year, the interest rate of the first commercial personal housing loan implemented by Tianjin Construction Bank was 4. 1%. "This should be the lowest (commercial housing loan interest rate), and I personally think it is impossible to go any lower." The staff member said.
In Li's view, these 23 cities are all non-hot cities, and the mortgage interest rate is higher than other cities (for the above reasons), so it is necessary to reduce it. At the same time, Li also predicted that the interest rate of the first commercial mortgage will fall below 4%, and the specific interest rate level depends on the decision of the pricing team of the bank's self-discipline mechanism.
The staff of Wenzhou Industrial and Commercial Bank also told the reporter of China Times, "It's hard to say how much Wenzhou can offer. It depends on the documents of the head office, and we have no say here. " The staff also suggested that the reporter should come back for consultation next month.
"The landing process takes a long time."
Beihai is also in these 23 cities.
On September 30, Zhang Qiang (a pseudonym), a real estate agent in Beihai, Guangxi, told the reporter of China Times that the interest rate of commercial mortgage for the first suite in Beihai was around 4.8%.
"Every city's policies are different, and the implementation of policies depends on the local actual situation." Zhang Qiang believes that Beihai (mortgage interest rate) will not change in the near future, even if the state has introduced relevant policies. It takes a long time for policies to be implemented and enjoyed by customers. "The most important thing (affecting the property market) is the epidemic. After the epidemic, it will definitely pick up. " Zhang Qiang said.
Beihai, Guangxi is a city famous for its tourism resources, located at the southernmost tip of Guangxi Province, facing Hainan Province across the sea. Beihai was affected by Hainan's real estate purchase restriction policy on 20 18, and took over part of Hainan's foreign purchasing power. The reporter learned from Beihai real estate agency that when the house price was the highest in 2065438+2008, the price of several properties in Beihai exceeded 25,000 yuan/flat. Now the average price of Beihai property market is more than 5,000 yuan/flat.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics show that in August, the price of new houses in Beihai decreased by 1.4% month-on-month and10/%year-on-year. The price of second-hand houses decreased by 1% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year. It is worth noting that as of August 2022, the price of new houses in Beihai has been falling for 12 months.
Li said that in the context of falling house prices, it is not cost-effective for buyers to bear high interest rate liabilities. Since the beginning of this year, the deposit interest rate has been declining, the five-year deposit interest rate has dropped to 2.6%, and more than 3% of wealth management has been snapped up. In this case, even if the mortgage interest rate is 4%, it is very high.
"If the new house has not been repossessed, it will have to bear a high-interest loan for about 2 years. Now house prices have fallen back to the loss of buying a house a year ago. It is still falling. If you buy a house now, the house price may fall when you repossess it. For potential buyers in non-hot cities, buying a house is not enough. Therefore, it is necessary to lower interest rates. " Li said to him.
In addition, Sun Mei (pseudonym), a real estate agent in Wenzhou, also revealed to reporters that the interest rate of commercial mortgage for the first home in Wenzhou is around 4. 1%, and the provident fund loan may be lowered a little, around 3. 1%. Just need to buy a home, now is the most suitable.
When the reporter asked whether the commercial mortgage interest rate would continue to be lowered after the warming, Sun Mei thought that it had little impact on the just-needed.
In fact, in the past two days, the central bank not only relaxed the lower limit of the first housing loan interest rate in some cities, but also lowered the interest rate of the first individual housing provident fund loan 15 basis points after seven years.
On September 30th, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the interest rate of the first individual housing provident fund loan by 0. 15 percentage points from June, 2022, and adjust the interest rates for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years to 2.6% and 3. 1% respectively. The second set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rate policy remains unchanged, that is, the interest rates for less than five years (including five years) and more than five years are not less than 3.025% and 3.575% respectively.
Can it effectively promote residents to buy houses?
Since 2022, there have been more than 800 property market optimization policies across the country, but the overall policy effect is not obvious. According to the data of the middle finger, in September, the transaction area of commercial housing in key 100 cities still fell by more than 20% year-on-year.
On September 30th, Chen Wenjing, director of market research of the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the reporter of China Times that the "Jin Jiu" was not good enough, and the buyers were in a depressed mood and had a strong wait-and-see mood, so the real estate became an important factor that dragged down the stable recovery of the macro economy. At present, the downward pressure on the macro economy is greater, and the stabilizing role of real estate is more prominent. The clear time limit of this policy is conducive to the timely implementation of relevant measures in various places, and it is also conducive to the timely entry of housing demand in the wait-and-see stage, boosting market activity and promoting the real estate market in the fourth quarter. Accelerate and stabilize.
Relaxing the interest rate of the first home loan and lowering the interest rate of provident fund loans can really release the demand of residents for housing?
"Real estate lost money, and now the appreciation of real estate is too low. I have a friend who bought a house in Chengdu a few years ago and lost tens of thousands of dollars after paying the mortgage. " Liang Zijie (a pseudonym), a post-90 s boy from Maoming, Guangdong, told the reporter of China Times. He is not going to buy a house this year. He wants to wait and see, and will not change his purchase plan because of the "window period" of the mortgage interest rate reduction policy.
Unlike Liang Zijie, Chen Wenhua (pseudonym), a native of Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, said that buying a house is not for investment. "Even if the mortgage interest rate in Zhanjiang drops in the future, I will not buy a house in recent years, mainly because I have no money. What's more, I work in Guangzhou. If I buy a house in the future, I'm not sure where to buy it. " Chen Wenhua said.
In addition, the staff of a real estate in Zhanjiang told the reporter of China Times in June 10 that at present, we have not received the information of the decrease of mortgage interest rate in Zhanjiang, and we are based on the bank's caliber. At present, many people come to see the house in our real estate, which is mainly affected by housing prices and holidays, and has little to do with the decline in mortgage interest rates.
A staff member of a real estate enterprise told the reporter of China Times that these policies are very positive, and the effect may take some time to show.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, also told reporters on September 30 that a new wave of mortgage interest rate cuts will be ushered in the fourth quarter, which will help reduce mortgage costs and boost market transactions.
In addition, Li also believes that the current bailout policy is very strong, including the down payment for second homes and the cancellation of purchase restrictions in non-hot cities; It is also a critical moment for the supply side to resolve risks. This time, it is expected that all 23 cities will fall below 4%. The property market has begun to slowly bottom out. Although the trend after bottoming out is unclear, it may even linger at the bottom for a while, but it is unlikely to fall sharply again. Relaxing the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan in some cities is obviously hoping to cut interest rates in the remaining three months of this year (there will be no such dividend next year) to meet the demand for housing.
However, GF Securities pointed out that the policy window period is three months, and residents who plan to buy houses in some cities next year may advance to the fourth quarter, so it is necessary to pay attention to whether some demand will be overdrawn next year.