The purpose of financial forecast
The purpose of forecasting is to reflect the advance of financial management, that is, to help financial personnel understand and control the future financial budget.
Uncertainty minimizes ignorance of the future, makes the expected goal of financial plan consistent with the surrounding environment and economic conditions that may change, and knows the implementation effect of financial plan.
Types of financial forecast
Financial forecast can be classified according to different signs: (1) According to the pre-object, it can be divided into financing forecast, investment forecast, cost forecast, income forecast and profit forecast. (2) According to the nature, it can be divided into qualitative prediction and quantitative prediction. (3) According to the forecast span time, it is divided into long-term forecast, medium-term forecast and short-term budget. (4) According to the predicted value, it can be divided into single prediction and multiple prediction. (5) According to the situation of prediction, it can be divided into attitude prediction and dynamic prediction.
Financial forecasting program
Financial forecasting is generally carried out according to the following procedures:
Accurately predict objects and targets.
First, the financial forecast should be clear about the forecast objects and objectives, and then the scope and time of the forecast can be determined according to the forecast objectives, contents and requirements.
Fixed forecast plan
The forecast plan includes the organization and leadership of the forecast work, personnel arrangement, work progress, budget, etc.
Collect and collate data
Data collection is the basis of forecasting. The company shall define the contents and methods of data collection, financial forecasting and planning according to the object and purpose of forecasting.
And then collect it. Check the reliability, integrity and typicality of the collected data, analyze its availability and the impact of accidental events, so as to eliminate the false and retain the true, remove the rough and extract the fine, and classify and summarize the data as needed.
Fixed forecasting method
Financial forecasting can only be accomplished by certain scientific methods. The company should choose the appropriate forecasting method according to the purpose of forecasting and the characteristics of obtaining information. When using quantitative methods, a mathematical statistical model should be established; When using qualitative methods, we should make an outline of the budget according to certain logical thinking.
Actual forecast of production line
Use the selected scientific forecasting method to carry out the financial budget, and get the preliminary budget results. The prediction results can be expressed in words, tables or graphs.
Evaluate and correct the forecast results.
After all, forecasting is a hypothesis and inference of future financial activities, and forecasting errors are inevitable. Therefore, the forecast results can only be adopted after economic analysis and evaluation. The focus of analysis and evaluation is the new changes of internal and external factors that affect future development. If the error is large, it should be revised or re-predicted to determine the best predicted value.
Financial forecasting method
There are two methods of financial forecasting: qualitative forecasting and quantitative forecasting. Qualitative prediction is to make financial decisions by judging various factors that things have.
The method of predicting elements and attributes is based on empirical judgment, logical thinking and logical reasoning. Its main feature is to use intuitive materials and rely on comprehensive analysis of personal experience to predict the future of things. Commonly used qualitative prediction methods include expert meeting method, Phil survey method, interview method, on-site observation method, discussion method and so on. Quantitative forecasting is a method of forecasting by analyzing the quantitative relationship between various factors and attributes of things. Its main feature is to find out its inherent laws according to historical data, and to quantitatively predict the future situation of things through mathematical operations by using the principles of coherence and analogy. There are many quantitative forecasting methods, such as time series forecasting method (including arithmetic average method, weighted average method, moving average method, exponential smoothing method, least square method, etc.). ), correlation factor prediction method (including one-dimensional linear regression method, multiple linear regression method, etc. ), probability analysis prediction method (mainly Markov prediction method) and so on. The above two methods are not isolated from each other, and they are often used comprehensively in financial forecasting.
The role of financial forecasting
Financial forecasting plays a very important role in improving the management level and economic benefits of the company. It is embodied in the following aspects: 1. Financial forecast is an important basis for enterprise decision-making. The key to management lies in decision-making, and the key to decision-making lies in prediction. Through forecasting, it provides basis for various decision-making schemes, so that decision makers can weigh the advantages and disadvantages and make correct choices. For example, when a company makes business decisions, it will inevitably involve issues such as cost, income and capital demand, which are mostly estimated by financial forecasting. Everything is established in advance, and it is abolished if it is not foreseen. Therefore, financial forecasting directly affects the quality of enterprise decision-making. 2. Financial forecast is the reasonable arrangement of the company's income and expenditure to improve the efficiency of capital use. To raise and use funds well, a company should not only be familiar with the company's past financial revenue and expenditure rules, but also be good at predicting the company's future capital flow, that is, what funds will enter and leave the company during the planning period, and whether the revenue and expenditure will be balanced. We should be far-sighted and plan for the long term, so that financial management is in an active position. 3. Financial forecast is an important means to improve the management level of the company. Financial forecasting not only provides support for scientific financial decision-making and financial planning, but also helps to cultivate financial managers' advanced forecasting thinking, so as to be prepared for danger in times of peace. At the same time, financial forecasting involves a lot of scientific methods and modern management means, which is undoubtedly of great benefit to improving the quality of financial managers. It should be pointed out that the role of financial forecasting is affected by its accuracy. The higher the accuracy, the greater the effect; On the contrary, the smaller. The factors that affect the accuracy of financial forecasting can be divided into subjective factors and objective factors. Subjective factors mainly refer to the quality of forecasters, such as mathematical statistics and analysis ability, forecasting experience and so on. Objective factors mainly refer to the sharp changes in the internal and external environment of enterprises, such as SARS and other emergencies. Therefore, financial forecasters should constantly improve their forecasting ability, accumulate experience in practice and improve the accuracy of forecasting.
Principles of financial forecasting
Making financial forecasts generally follows the following principles: 1. The principle of continuity. The financial forecast must be continuous, that is, the forecast must be based on the past and present financial data of enterprise assets and liabilities.
As a basis for inferring the future financial situation. 2. The principle of key factors. When making financial forecast, we should concentrate on the major projects first, and don't stick to everything, which can save time and cost. 3. The principle of objectivity. Only by making financial forecast on an objective basis can we draw a correct conclusion. 4. Scientific principles. In financial forecasting, on the one hand, we should use scientific methods (mathematical statistics methods); On the other hand, we should be good at finding the correlation and similarity between predictive variables and making correct predictions. 5. Economic principles. Pay attention to economy in financial forecasting, because financial forecasting involves costs and benefits. Therefore, we should try our best to achieve satisfactory forecast quality with the lowest forecast cost.
Relationship between financial forecast and strategic plan
In the process of strategic consultation, our strategic plan needs to predict the future finance. This is detailed in many strategic plans or business plans. -in the process of strategic planning, we need to make a detailed analysis and forecast of the future financial development trend; -The rationality of financial forecast needs strict attention, not our subjective speculation; The assumption of financial forecast is based on the effective analysis of the company's strategic plan, and establishing assumptions before financial forecast can effectively support the implementation of the strategic plan; -Forecast strategy, business plan and long-term and short-term financial situation before overall budget management and control; -The financial forecasting process will be a process of looking forward to the future and planning, and it is also an effective way to enhance the informationization of the company in implementing the strategic plan. Because in the process of persuasion and transmission of strategic plans, good strategic financial prospects can give employees confidence and motivation; For entrepreneurs, making effective and convincing financial forecasts in business plans and showing financial forecasts and financial achievements in the next three years or longer can make strategic investors or new venture capitalists have confidence in you.
Edit the model of this financial forecast.
The basic structure of designing financial forecasting model The financial forecasting model is generally divided into: 1) assumptions; 2) Calculation page and result page. The purpose of financial forecast is to make financial policies, major financial decisions, financing plans, general financial analysis and future financial situation. A company's financial policy generally includes: credit policy; ? Inventory reserve and current occupation; ? Construction and purchase of fixed assets; ? Plans and measures to reduce costs; ? Financing plan and financing cost allocation. When the company formulates various financial policies, it needs to analyze the influence of various policies on the future financial situation to confirm the influence of various financial policy changes on the company's future finance. Through this comparison, we will clearly understand the obvious financial impact of the company's policy changes. When designing the financial forecasting model, the assumed conditions generally include: sales revenue, sales cost, sales expenses, management expenses and other accounts receivable. Inventory, accounts receivable, accounts payable, bank deposits, debts, accrued expenses, etc. will be automatically calculated through the model. The final result is three statements, balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. If the company needs to forecast the key performance indicators, it can also design them in the forecast model, and generally the following contents can be added:? Key performance indicators (KPI, focusing on financial indicators); ? Management decision-making models, such as cost decision, break-even point forecast, credit analysis, liquidity forecast, enterprise economic growth forecast, etc. ); ? Budget comparison, by comparing the planned forecast data with the actual implementation data, confirm the difference and the reasons for the difference. Adjustment of financial forecasting model In the process of financial forecasting, the most important problem is to adjust or modify the financial forecasting model into a model that conforms to the company's situation, which is very important and necessary. We hope that entrepreneurs can understand the future financial situation of enterprises through this forecasting model, so we need to adjust the differences between the basic assumptions of the initial design of the model and the current assumptions. This includes: the adjustment of product lines can adjust the financial forecasting product structure according to the company's current management requirements, such as adjusting the previous forecast by product category to the sales area or sales method of products; If the company is in the form of business divisions, each business division can also become an economic center for forecasting; ? The adjustment of cost forecast table can adjust the cost forecast from cost type to product category, and adjust the cost to sales cost according to management requirements, including classifying variable cost and fixed cost, and calculating the sales quantity and price of breakeven point. ? Under normal circumstances, we will show the company's managers inventory, accounts receivable, accounts payable, fixed assets, bank deposits and negative and financial statements, but in some companies with specific or other requirements, we need more information than these. For example, the company is currently making long-term investment or technical improvement, which requires a lot of long-term investment. The precipitation of these funds will have a far-reaching impact on the company's financial situation. How to arrange a reasonable investment period and investment plan is a headache for every manager. You can design a detailed investment table to reflect the impact of long-term investment on the company. The financial forecasting model we designed meets the actual management needs of the company. Therefore, when using the financial forecasting model, not all the data obtained or input come from the financial accounting system. Business judgment and career analysis in the process can ensure the validity of the output of financial forecasting model and reflect the future situation. Generally speaking, we call it "analyzing data".