Every car manufacturer usually starts the new year at the biennial China Beijing Auto Show. China is the largest automobile market in the world. At the week-long auto show, various new models were displayed to thousands of spectators who poured into the huge exhibition hall. But this year, global auto brands will need to find another place to launch hundreds of new products for the auto show, because the organizers said that this year's Beijing auto show will be postponed due to the outbreak of novel coronavirus.
Auto factories all over China are returning to work one after another, after China once closed factories nationwide to stop the spread of the virus. But analysts say it may take several months for automakers to recover from the blow of supply chain and sales.
Stop production leads to chain reaction in production supply chain.
Last week, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers revised its forecast of automobile sales in 2020. The new forecast is that the sales volume will drop by 65,438+00% in the first half of this year and 5% in the whole year. The association had previously predicted that after nearly two years of decline, this year's sales will stabilize.
The production plans of all major automakers have been delayed for at least a week. Although the factory has now resumed work, analysts say it is still difficult for automakers to increase production. Hubei province, located at the center of the epidemic, announced last Thursday that it would extend the closing time of non-essential enterprises to March 1 1.
The CEO of a car company said: "We are all lobbying key suppliers for special approval. I expect this, but I am sure that the epidemic will affect some manufacturers. "
Every car company faces some kind of interruption. Any supplier who stops production will have a chain reaction.
GM and SAIC, one of its partners in China, announced that they would produce their own masks. Consulting firm Sino? Cars? Le Tu, founder of Insights, said that even if all the workers of various manufacturers return to work, the shortage of parts may be a big problem.
Le Tu said: "It may be a super harmless component, a nut or a bolt, which can stop the whole production line. Every car company imports parts from China ... No one can say: I am not affected. " According to customs data, in 20 19, the total value of auto parts exported by China exceeded 60 billion US dollars. About 80% of the world's automobile production involves parts made in China.
Outside China, the impact of supply chain disruption has been felt. Jaguar Land Rover had to fly parts from China to ensure supply, while Fiat Chrysler said that one of its factories in Europe would be forced to stop production. Hyundai and Nissan have closed their factories in South Korea.
Jia, executive director of china automobile dealers association, said: "Although many manufacturers have resumed work, we still need to know more about the sales situation of dealers in various regions and re-formulate the annual capacity plan according to the market sales situation. Therefore, it will take time for the new production capacity to reach the dealer terminal. "
Car dealers need time to recover.
The yield is only half of the equation. There is also a demand for dealers to queue cars in the exhibition hall, and there is also a demand for China consumers to buy cars.
In June this year, GM's sales in 5438+ 10 decreased by 40% compared with the same period last year. According to British research company LMC? Automotive estimates that the worst-hit areas in China (more than 500 confirmed cases in COVID-19) account for 665,438+0% of the total passenger car sales and 54% of the production. Volkswagen has the highest market share in these areas. Some areas in China have begun to take promotional measures. For example, Foshan City, Guangdong Province is providing subsidies to buyers and distributors.
According to a survey in china automobile dealers association, about 20% of the dealer exhibition halls are open for business, but the sales volume is only about 5% of the usual level. These dealers expect that sales in February will drop by as much as 80%.
The general manager of a car dealer in Changchun said: "Before the epidemic situation improved, all the cars in the store were acceptance bills. The manufacturer canceled the sales task in February and introduced some financial subsidy policies, but the monthly interest rate was still very high. At present, the lack of cash flow in shops is the biggest difficulty in operation. In addition, at present, automobile dealers in Changchun are still in the flexible working system of rotation, and it is impossible to achieve full employment 100%. In the case of almost no new car sales, the monthly salary pressure is also very high. "
Jia also said: Even if the epidemic is completely over, people have an urgent desire to buy a car. However, due to long-term self-isolation at home, personal income has been greatly affected. The first thing people think of is to increase their income quickly, rather than giving priority to buying a car, a product with a large single consumption.
Sub-step said: from the above situation, we can't expect a substantial increase in sales in the short term. As it turns out, the 4S car shop that broadcasts live on the Internet is completely helpless, and it is impossible to become the mainstream sales model in the future. This epidemic has tested the entire automobile industry in China. After this war, manufacturers and distributors will inevitably reshuffle.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.