1, Chongqing real estate market background analysis
Chongqing seized the three historic opportunities of the Central Committee, the construction of the Three Gorges Project and the development of the western region, vigorously adjusted its economic structure, actively expanded its opening to the outside world, deepened its system reform, accelerated infrastructure construction, achieved all-round economic and social development, and further enhanced its comprehensive strength. The main economic indicators are in the top five in the western region 12 provinces. Since 2008, with the impact of the international financial crisis on our city gradually emerging, Chongqing's economic growth rate has shown a trend of "rising before and then falling". From the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2008, the cumulative growth rate of Chongqing's GDP was 13.9%, 15.2%, 15.3% and 14.3% respectively. It can be seen from this data that in the fourth quarter of 2008, Chongqing was greatly affected by the economic crisis, and the cumulative growth rate decreased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous three quarters and 1.3 percentage point compared with the previous year. However, despite the financial crisis, the "fundamentals of steady and rapid development" of the city's economy has not changed. According to preliminary statistics, in 2008, Chongqing's economy grew steadily and rapidly, and the city's GDP increased by 14.3%, exceeding the 500 billion yuan mark. The city's GDP increased by 14.3% over the previous year, reaching 509.8 billion yuan; The general budget revenue of local finance was 57.7 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4%. The investment in fixed assets of the whole society increased by 28%, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods and foreign trade exports increased by 24.3% and 26.4% respectively. The added value of industry accounts for 40% of the city's GDP, and the profits of industries above designated size are 25.5 billion yuan. The total assets of municipal state-owned key enterprises reached 750 billion yuan, and the profits reached 654.38+0 billion yuan, an increase of 40%. The added value of non-public economy increased by 18.2%. At the end of the year, the balance of local and foreign currency deposits and loans of financial institutions reached 801800 million yuan and 61700 million yuan respectively, up by 2 1% and 19% year-on-year, and the non-performing loan ratio dropped to about 3. 1%. With the rapid deterioration of the international economic environment and increasing domestic economic difficulties, Chongqing's economy has maintained a steady and rapid development trend.
In terms of real estate, in 2008, under the influence of the international financial crisis and other factors, the development of the real estate industry in the main city of Chongqing encountered some unfavorable factors, but the real estate market generally operated smoothly. According to the data provided by Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Land Resources and Housing Management, in 2008, the construction area of commercial housing in the main city of Chongqing was 10889700 square meters, and the sales volume ranked third among 40 large and medium-sized cities in China. The residential building area approved for listing in the whole year was17,567,900 square meters, which was basically the same as the same period last year. The annual sales of commercial housing was10.8897 million square meters, which was lower than that in 2007, but basically the same as that in 2006 and 2005, indicating that the market sales situation returned to the normal development level.
Judging from the price of commercial housing, from June 5438+ 10 to February 65438+2, 2008, the average price of commercial housing construction in the main urban area of Chongqing showed the general characteristics of "slow rise and slow fall". The price of commercial housing fluctuated in a single month, reaching the highest average construction area of 4 139 yuan/square meter in April, with the largest year-on-year increase of 48.9%. From May to September, the price fluctuated slightly, but it began to decline from 10, and the transaction occurred in11February.
2. Analysis of the background of the real estate market in the appraisal target area.
Through understanding, the investment in key real estate projects in Zhongxian County slowed down this year, and the hidden dangers of development began to appear: ① the contradiction of oversupply of commercial housing is prominent; ② the influence of macro-control; ③ Lack of funds for real estate projects; ③ Different compensation standards for demolition; (4) investment confidence in old city reconstruction is affected; ④ Urban planning lags behind; Affected the external image of the city; ⑤ The development sequence is not strong, and orderly land supply faces challenges. According to the data, at present, the real estate construction area in this county has reached 6.5438+0.8 million square meters, and with the development of binjiang road and Xiangshan areas, it is estimated that the amount of commercial housing will reach about 3 million square meters in the next 3-5 years. "Without the background of accelerated economic development and rapid urban population growth, such a huge volume will take about 10 years to digest." A person in charge of the county construction Committee believes that these data show that the county real estate market does hide greater risks. In particular, a small number of enterprises are not strong, and after being restricted by national regulatory policies, they have difficulty in financing and are at great risk. Therefore, in the near future, the house price in Zhongxian county should fluctuate within a relatively stable range, with little amplitude. With the continuous expansion of urban area, there is still room for appreciation of commercial real estate, especially in the central city.