TrendForce Jibang Consulting data shows that in May 438+February, the prices of polysilicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and photovoltaic modules all declined to varying degrees. Among them, the decline in the prices of upstream silicon materials and silicon wafers has been transmitted to the middle reaches of batteries and components. According to the latest data from Silicon Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the price of M 10 single crystal silicon wafer (182mm/ 150μm) dropped the most this week, about 20%.
Jibang Consulting also said that the prices of silicon materials and batteries to photovoltaic modules will inevitably fall to the situation in the first quarter of next year. East Asia Qianhai Securities recently released a research report that it is expected that the supply and demand of silicon materials will slow down and the price will cool down, or it will appear after the centralized release of new production capacity in 2023.
The research report previously released by Huaxi Securities believes that with the further improvement of production capacity and the shrinking of downstream demand, the overall inventory level of silicon materials will probably accumulate at the end of the year, which is the first signal of inventory reversal in the upstream in the past two years, reflecting the gradual release of upstream supply. Silicon materials will officially enter the downward channel.
It can be seen that the current market expectations for the price pressure brought about by the release of photovoltaic upstream supply capacity are relatively consistent.
However, the research of East Asia Qianhai Securities also shows that combined with the supply and demand pattern, the profits of the main photovoltaic industry chain will be redistributed when the downward trend of silicon prices is relatively certain, and the downstream installed capacity demand is expected to usher in high growth with the improvement of the economy.
The data shows that in May 438+0-1June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in China reached 65.7 1GW, up 88.7% year-on-year, and in May 438+01June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 7.47GW, up 35.3% year-on-year and 32.5% quarter-on-quarter. Judging from the completed investment, the investment and growth rate of power projects of photovoltaic power generation enterprises rank first among all kinds of power generation enterprises, which also confirms that photovoltaic demand still maintains a high degree of prosperity.
East Asia Qianhai Securities believes that under the background of "double carbon" and the clear goal of non-fossil energy accounting for about 20% in 2025, the downward cost and economic improvement of photovoltaic power generation will make the high growth of photovoltaic installed demand more certain.
Longji green energy (60 10 12) is recommended. SH), Jing 'ao Technology (002459. SZ) and Trina Solar (688599. SH), they are the most beneficial component integration leaders; Benefit from sunshine power supply (300274. SZ), Jinlang Technology (300763. SZ) and Goodway (688390. SH)； Photovoltaic glass duopoly Follette (60 1865. SH) and Xinyi Solar (00968.HK) benefit from the improvement of transmittance of double glass modules; Benefiting from the tight supply and demand pattern of the EVA film leader Foster (603806). SH) and Haiyou New Materials (688680. Shh).
The research of Huaxi Securities also pointed out that up to now, 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have made clear the scenery installation plan during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, among which 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have added more than 406.55GW of photovoltaic installed capacity, and will add 355.5GW in the next four years, and the reserves of new photovoltaic projects are sufficient.
Domestic PV monthly installed capacity in 2022
Huaxi Securities believes that as the price of upstream silicon materials falls, it will continue to stimulate the release of demand, and the newly installed photovoltaic capacity is still expected to maintain rapid growth in 2023. At the same time, after the downstream cost pressure of photovoltaic is alleviated, it is expected to be distributed to the retained profits of the industrial chain. In particular, downstream operating enterprises will benefit from scale improvement and project economic improvement, and their profitability is expected to rebound, and their performance sustainability is guaranteed.
It is suggested to pay attention to the downstream power station operators with leading operation scale and strong certainty of their own performance. Including Jingke Technology (60 1778. SH), solar energy (0059 1. SZ), Jenny Energy (60 1222. SH), Jinkai Xinneng (60082 1. SH) and Beijing Express (6065438).