Author: Zhang Yun Finance/Wang Xinrong
13 On the evening of May, US President Trump sent a tweet saying: "We are cooperating and will provide ZTE with ways to quickly resume business. (ZTE incident) Many people in China are unemployed, and the US Department of Commerce has received instructions to properly solve this matter. " Trump's tweet means that ZTE officially ushered in a turning point.
On April 16 this year, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would ban American enterprises from selling any electronic technology or communication components to ZTE, a telecom equipment manufacturer in China, for a period of seven years until March 13, 2025.
When the ban came out, the industry was in an uproar. ZTE's products and equipment contain a large number of semiconductor chips made in the United States, many of which are far from being localized. The "lock-up order" directly hit the second largest telecom equipment manufacturer in China, opening the pain point of China semiconductor industry, and the process of domestic chip substitution has attracted much attention. Facing the huge earthquake, colleagues in China's scientific and technological circles set off a wave of public opinion frenzy focusing on the soft spot of "lack of core".
At the same time, China and the United States are also engaged in intense negotiations and mediation. After 27 days of turmoil, things finally turned around.
However, Trump suddenly said that he promised to help ZTE resume operations. What medicine is sold in this gourd?
However, in fact, ZTE was sanctioned, and it was not only ZTE that lost. 25%-30% of ZTE's equipment parts are provided by American enterprises, including smart phones and communication network equipment. Reuters said that Trump's attitude towards ZTE will have a great impact on the share prices of American optical component manufacturers such as AcaciaCommunications(ACIA). O) and Oclaro(OCLR. o)； The ban on ZTE's export by American companies caused the share price of the above companies to fall. Earlier, Reuters reported in May 1 1 that a senior executive of ZTE said on Friday (June 1 1) that the company paid more than 23% to American exporters in 20 17.
Some media also said that there is no more information for us to analyze Trump's motives. However, this week, People's Republic of China (PRC) Vice Premier Liu He will lead a team to negotiate with the United States on Sino-US trade issues. Trump's signal will help the two sides to ease tensions and truly discuss issues realistically, rather than being covered up by nationalist sentiment.
In fact, international economists in China and the United States can easily reach a consensus in theory. For example, Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, once thought that the trade deficit of the United States was mainly caused by problems in the macro-economy of the United States, and the lack of domestic savings in the United States led to borrowing and consumption, rather than bilateral problems between China and the United States. Experts in international trade theory pointed out that sanctions against China will seriously hit the global industrial chain, not only affecting the faltering globalization, but also inevitably affecting the welfare of American consumers.
Although Trump is fickle, China's position is consistent.
For the United States, Trump's move is a vague signal, because the previously vociferous remarks such as "China and the United States are engaged in a high-tech war" and "Trump suppresses China" seem to be different from what Trump said today to get China people employed.
But this is enough to remind many people in China that the United States today is probably not the United States we used to be familiar with. We must innovate our cognition, stop trying to carve a boat for a sword, simply apply the original understanding of the political and economic operation of the United States to the Trump administration, and go back to the original point to deeply study the foundation and internal disputes of Trump's administration.
At the beginning of April, the United States issued sanctions against ZTE, which set off a wave of research on Sino-US trade friction in China-although the trade friction was only in the oral stage. Various opinions are pouring in. After a little combing, it will be found that China experts can't agree on Trump's intentions, especially. Some think it is the mid-term election in June of 5438+0 1, some think it is a high-tech war, and some think it is the eve of the new cold war.
It can be seen that there is still a lack of convincing framework and principles to analyze the intention of Trump's approach. Therefore, it is particularly important to "listen to what he says and observe what he does".
We undoubtedly welcome Trump's positive signal to China. At least, the United States correctly recognizes that unilateralism has its limitations in an interdependent world. It is understandable for the United States to solve the trade imbalance and safeguard the national security of the United States, but it must be based on full consultation with China.
We will also pay close attention to the follow-up of Trump's proposal. No matter how the United States under Trump views globalization, China's position is consistent and firm, that is, to continue to open wider to the outside world and take the road of peaceful development with the rest of the world.
What is ZTE's next step?
Wang Lin and Yu Jun, analysts of China Merchants Communications, predicted the follow-up trend of ZTE;
ZTE's second embargo by the U.S. Department of Commerce began on April 16, 2006, and has just arrived at the end of 1 now. The attitude of the United States has changed from firmly denying that there is room for negotiation to accepting ZTE's complaint materials. Today, Trump took the initiative to send a tweet to show a cooperative attitude. The overall situation is developing in a positive direction.
We judge that the US Department of Commerce is likely to resume ZTE's procurement in the United States in the form of suspending the ban, and the final solution has yet to be determined, and fines have become the most possible option.
From the perspective of national game, the right to speak and intellectual property rights of 5G standards may become the focus of negotiations, and further impact needs to be evaluated.
As for the market impact, analysts are highly consistent, emphasizing attention to 5G expectations and stock targets with alternative logic and independent technology patents.
Essence Securities said, "We continue to be firmly optimistic about China 5G":
In fact, in the week when the ZTE ban was restarted in the United States, the three major operators still promoted 5G as scheduled: Unicom piloted 5G in 16 city, Telecom piloted 5G in 12 city, and Mobile piloted 5G services in 5 cities+12 city.
Affected by ZTE incident, the market may be worried that the United States will further expand its attack on China's communication industry chain, or China will retaliate against American enterprises. As a result, the stock prices of Zhongji Xu Chuang and Guanghuan New Network fluctuate greatly, so it is suggested to pay close attention to them.
At the same time, ZTE incident has sounded the alarm for our communication industry chain, and the domestic replacement of core devices is urgently needed to be put on the agenda. It is suggested to pay attention to subjects with unique logic and independent technology patents, such as Yi Sheng Science and Technology and Rongfeida.
The Sino-Thai Communication Internet team believes that it is necessary to focus on the expected recovery of 5G and the affected targets of China and the United States. However, they also stressed that this has not changed the long-term logic of self-control and domestic substitution:
Pay attention to the expected recovery of 5G and the impact targets of China and the United States. The Sino-US game event has lowered the market's expectation for the development of 5G, and we think it has not affected China's determination to develop 5G. Focus on Guangxun Technology, Fiberhome Communications, CIMC Xu Chuang and ZTE. , affected by the low position in the early stage, as well as the Halo New Network affected by Sino-US relations, Star Network Ruijie and Ziguang affected by the import of core chips in the market;
It is emphasized that self-control and domestic substitution are deterministic long-term logic, and the game between China and the United States reminds the reality of domestic chip industry. This incident made us clearly aware of the weakness of domestic industry. The turning point of events cannot change the long-term logic of self-control and domestic substitution, and the need for national strategy will be more pragmatic. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to relevant targets.