AIoT intelligent internet of things has entered the "accelerated stage" of development: intelligent technology has matured and will grow rapidly in the next decade. 202 1 affected by the epidemic situation, driven by the dual needs of epidemic prevention and home, a large number of AIoT scenes were promoted. The number of domestic AIoT faucet connection devices increased rapidly from the previous month, and a large number of AIoT application scenarios quickly landed; It is the stage of rapid integration of mature demand for AIoT application, and the epidemic superposition catalyzes the heavy volume of smart products, which is the first year of rapid development; It is expected that this application will continue to be popular in the next decade, which will benefit golden decade.
The semiconductor market driven by AIoT is expected to reach 250 billion RMB. Sensor and chip manufacturers account for about 10% in the AIoT industrial chain. According to the global AIoT market of $374 billion in 20021year, it is estimated that the semiconductor value will reach $37.4 billion, or about RMB 250 billion. Semiconductors will promote the landing and rise of smart homes, smart buildings, smart health, smart medical care, intelligent industrial control, smart cities and other fields, and the semiconductor sector will mainly benefit from the overlapping application landing and demand improvement.
Second, the value and quantity of automotive semiconductors are expected to be upgraded simultaneously, and the lack of power semiconductor production capacity has become the new normal.
The subversive trend of automotive electronics should not be underestimated. With the accelerated penetration of AIOT and new energy vehicles, the value and quantity of automotive semiconductors are expected to increase simultaneously. According to the development vision of the national plan, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 5 million in 2025, and the number of new energy vehicles will be 20 million. It is estimated that in 2030, the cost of automotive electronics will rise from 18% in 2000 to 45%, which provides great opportunities for electronic and semiconductor enterprises involved in the automotive field.
The lack of power semiconductor production capacity has become the new normal, which will usher in an unprecedented boom cycle in history. Automobile is the largest demand field of power semiconductor, accounting for nearly 1/3. It is estimated that the price of power semiconductors related to new energy vehicles will exceed 654.38+024 billion yuan in 2025. In terms of production capacity, there are 29 power semiconductor production lines in major power semiconductor manufacturers, and 9 production lines are under construction or planning. It is estimated that it will take about three years from the start of the fab to the start of production, so it can be seen that most of the expanded production capacity will gradually emerge after 2023 to alleviate the current tight supply and demand situation.
Third, the semiconductor boom continues to rise, and the production capacity is expected to continue to be tight in the second half of the year+more prosperous in the peak season.
More than 30 semiconductor companies raised their product prices by 202 1Q2. Since the third quarter of 2020, the semiconductor industry has been hot, and companies have raised product prices. Generally, due to the rapid growth of market demand, the price of upstream raw materials has risen. The collective price increase shows that the demand for semiconductors is reaching an unprecedented height.
The expansion trend of SMIC in Hua Hong is clear, wafer foundry has become the focus of the game, and it is expected to continue to expand production in the next five years. The main line of the future trend of the semiconductor manufacturing sector in mainland China: the demand side benefits from "Internet of Everything+domestic substitution", and the technology side benefits from the continuous improvement of mature processes and the rising yield of advanced processes. As the most important asset in this field, wafer foundry has attracted much attention under the trade conflict, which has accelerated the research and development progress of equipment and materials and affected the product capability of design companies. With the continuous process of global digitalization, the importance of wafer foundry capacity is highlighted and it has gradually become a strategic asset.
Fourth, domestic semiconductor equipment and materials benefit from the expansion of production capacity and the acceleration of domestic substitution, which has expected room for improvement.
Local semiconductor manufacturing is expected to accelerate financing and expand production, and promote the expected upgrading of equipment and materials. At the current time node, in the short term, due to abundant orders in hand, the performance of semiconductor equipment and materials companies in the second/third quarter can be expected; In the long run, thanks to the expansion of production capacity and the acceleration of domestic substitution, the growth trend of semiconductor equipment materials plate is clear. In the post-Moore era, with the acceleration of financing and expansion of the local semiconductor manufacturing sector, the equipment and materials sector is expected to improve. In various sub-industries of semiconductor track, the equipment and materials sectors are among the top gainers. We continue to be optimistic about the expected opportunities for upgrading the material plate of semiconductor equipment.
Related objectives:
1.AIOT plate SoC master: Ruixinwei/Chen Jing/Quanzhi Technology/Fuhanwei/Hengxuan Technology; MCU microcontroller: Zhao Yi Innovation/Zhongying Electronics/Beijing Zheng Jun/National Technology; Communication IC: Lexin Technology/Broadcom integration; Sensors: Saimicroelectronics/Minxin/Suzhou Gutechnetium/Huilongjing;
2. Power semiconductor sector: Wen Tai Science and Technology /CRRC Times Electric/Starr Semiconductor/Jiejie Microelectronics/Silanwei/China Resources Micro/China Microelectronics/Xinjieneng;
3. Manufacturing plate: SMIC/ Hua Hong semiconductor/crystal integration;
4. Equipment and materials: Jacques Technology/North Huachuang/Zhongwei Company/Mei Sheng Semiconductor/Precision Electronics/Huafeng Measurement and Control/Changchuan Technology/Dinglong Co., Ltd./Youyan New Materials/Zhichun Technology/Zheng Fan Technology.
Market forecast on June 22
On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened slightly lower, mainly with shocks throughout the day, and closed slightly; Growth enterprise market refers to going strong. The trading volume of Shanghai stock market has shrunk slightly compared with last Friday, whether the volume can be enlarged or not, and the probability of the index is still fluctuating; The market rises more and falls less, and the effect of making money is good. At present, the index is light and heavy, and grasp the structural market opportunities. If there is little fluctuation in the external market, it is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will rebound with a high probability on Tuesday, with a pressure of 3560 above and a support of 3500 below.
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