Compile? |? Zhang chuanyu
Editor? |? Old driver; veteran
With the worldwide spread of novel coronavirus, the butterfly effect caused by it is eroding the global automobile industry.
In the start-up season of the automobile industry in 2020, it is difficult to return to work, and it is even more difficult to resume production? |? In the article "Special Report", Routing Agency reported in detail the impact of the epidemic on the resumption of work and production of some car companies and suppliers in China. Due to the different regulations and requirements of local governments, even after the partial resumption of work, China automobile industry is facing many difficulties and even risks.
Pull one hair and move the whole body. In fact, the slow recovery of supply chain output of China automobile industry has affected the development of global automobile industry. Both European and American car companies, as well as Japanese and Korean car companies, have encountered a shortage of auto parts from China, resulting in a large-scale shutdown and delayed resumption of work.
So, how serious is the butterfly effect caused by the novel coronavirus epidemic? How should the global auto industry hedge this risk? What experiences and lessons can be learned from it?
Significant adverse effects
Recently, affected by the inventory of suppliers in China, many European and American car companies have given early warning to the market.
Among them, Daimler Group has the strongest early warning. Daimler warned that the novel coronavirus epidemic has spread in China and even around the world, bringing greater risks to its own business. Daimler Group said in its annual report: "? The epidemic risk may not only affect the sales situation in major markets, but also have a significant adverse impact on the production, procurement market and supply chain. "
Daimler CEO Kang Song Lin (Ola? Kaellenius) announced that although its Mercedes-Benz brand has resumed production in Beijing, it is not yet possible to specifically measure the impact of the epidemic on Daimler's business.
FCA said that due to the shortage of parts from China, the production of Fiat 500L in Serbian factory has been temporarily stopped. The company also said that an FCA factory in Guangzhou resumed production on February 17, while the production in Changsha factory is expected to resume soon, but no specific date was given.
According to the Financial Times, Jaguar Land Rover needs to get 38 key parts from China, including key cards. According to the company, China parts have been packed and shipped to the UK to maintain production, but it is still possible to run out within two weeks.
Gü nter, CEO of Tata? Butschek revealed, "We only have safety stocks in February and March." ? Therefore, from the end of February, Jaguar Land Rover's Bromwich factory in central England had to stop production for four weeks, while the nearby Solihull factory would stop production intermittently until the end of March.
In addition, according to Forbes News, even those car companies that have resumed production are not much better in terms of output. They estimate that 32% of China's automobile and auto parts factories are in operation, but almost none can operate at full capacity. The problem is that many workers are still forced to isolate themselves at home.
An executive of an American parts supplier revealed, "All our factories are open, but the absenteeism rate is as high as 50%." ?
According to Forbes, compared with the economic depression two weeks ago, the overall situation of the global automobile industry will improve in the third week of February. However, in view of the obvious infectivity of the virus, various car companies are in no hurry to resume work and production.
Aptiv, a global automotive technology company with important business in China, predicts that by the first quarter of 2020, China's automobile production will even drop by 40-50%.
The pressure on Japanese and Korean car companies has doubled
"Wuhan produces almost all kinds of auto parts." Takeshi, managing director of consulting firm CarNora? Yao Mi said, "Under the influence of the epidemic, not only the automobile assembly plants in China are unable to purchase parts, but also the automobile plants all over the world that purchase parts from Wuhan are also affected."
Compared with European and American car companies, Japanese brands that are more closely linked to the China market and have invested heavily in Wuhan are not only facing the problem of stopping work and resuming production in the China market, but also being impacted by factories in other countries.
Honda said that production at its Wuhan plant will be suspended until March 1 1. Toyota said that it would take the lead in resuming the production of its Chengdu plant and gradually resume the production capacity of the other four assembly plants in China, but the output was limited. It is understood that Mazda and Mitsubishi also stopped some production in China due to the shortage of spare parts.
At the same time, Nissan said in an email that a directive from the Hubei provincial government requires companies to stop operating before March 10, and the supplier's output problem has also affected the company's resumption of production. In Japan, Nissan closed some production lines in Kyushu, southwest Japan from February 14 to February 17, and will stop production on February 24th.
According to informed sources, Nissan's Malaysian factory will also stop production soon; At the same time? Due to the further delay in the supply of spare parts, it may mean that its factories in the United States, Britain, India, Mexico, Russia and Spain must also stop production.
According to a report by DPA on February 22nd, many cases of COVID-19 infection were confirmed in various parts of Japan, bringing the total number of cases to more than 760. Therefore, the aggravation of local epidemic is also impacting the daily production of Japanese automobile industry.
To this end, the Japanese government and automobile industry organizations are setting up a joint Committee of automobile manufacturers and suppliers. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in a statement last Thursday that if the situation worsens, the agency will enjoy information and provide necessary financing and policy support. It is reported that the agency is cooperating with Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association and Japan Auto Parts Industry Association.
In the statement, the agency said it would monitor the development of the situation and be responsible for coordination and communication, and take measures in cooperation with the Japanese government to ensure the smooth supply of parts supply chain.
In addition, Korean car companies are also suffering from the shortage of parts in China.
According to the first financial report, the statistics of Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association show that 87% of the parts demand of Korean automobile manufacturers comes from China. At present, there are 40 domestic first-class and second-class suppliers, of which 38 have resumed work, but the rate of returning to work is still below 60%.
According to informed sources, due to the insufficient supply of wiring harness parts in China, the first and second factories of Hyundai Ulsan will be shut down or partially shut down. The Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association predicts that if the demand exceeds supply, only the local production capacity of Hyundai and Kia will face a reduction of nearly 50,000 vehicles, resulting in a sales loss of more than 1 trillion won (about 5.88 billion yuan).
Lack of planning in the automobile industry? b？
Although most companies have so-called "buffer" stocks to cope with short-term interruptions, these spare supplies may be exhausted during special periods such as epidemics. Insufficient backup plan and limited supply chain capacity are becoming prominent problems facing the automobile industry, which also makes the automobile industry particularly vulnerable in the novel coronavirus epidemic.
"Our customers are realizing that they are not ready to do what they should or should do." Jeffrey Pratt, head of BDO's supply chain, said that automakers, suppliers and other industries were not fully prepared for this disaster and did not make a reliable plan B?
Another analyst, Dave? Evans said, "The recent outbreak of coronavirus proves that the traditional supply chain can be easily destroyed quickly and dramatically, which also exposes the risk that the current model is obviously outdated and unreliable. In a world where markets and supply chains are all over the world, there must be better solutions. "
For the future supply chain, Forbes News gives two improvements:
Stay away from a single purchasing strategy and establish a more diversified supply system for materials and finished products.
Establish an automated supply chain. With the help of artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain, digital supply chain and manufacturing platform, companies can embrace an automated supply chain that can be adjusted as needed to prevent cost overruns, delays and catastrophic supply shortages. Finally, the supply chain management and operation that depends on personnel will be eliminated and the internal operation will be modernized.
Of course, in addition to the upgrading of purchasing strategy, there is also a temporary impact that cannot be ignored, that is, the "oxtail effect" of the supply chain.
How to understand it? For example, in the case of an epidemic, the purchasing manager will worry that once the inventory is exhausted, the factory will soon feel the shortage of materials. Therefore, they may place standby orders or try to obtain other sources of supply. However, when China suppliers finally resume production, it is likely that there will be a temporary oversupply of materials in the global industrial chain.
This is the phenomenon of demand variation and amplification in the supply chain. When the information flow is transmitted from the end customer to the original supplier, it can't enjoy the information effectively, which makes the information distorted step by step and causes the demand information to fluctuate more and more.
Therefore, whether the backup plan is insufficient, the supply chain capacity is limited, or the short-term "oxtail effect" in the supply chain, the automobile industry will need to make adjustments in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.