Shanghai's "strictest" real estate regulation and control policy was finally promulgated under the "public attention", which once again confirmed that "rumors" are often "distant predictions".
Make rounds within three years of divorce. The value-added tax on second-hand houses has been shortened from "five years" to "three years"; Strictly control personal mortgage. Other control measures, such as strictly managing the sales of commercial housing, strictly regulating the operation order of the real estate market, improving the management of the land market, optimizing the land supply structure, and increasing the supply of land for commercial housing, are all "platitudes" and have no force.
Since it is the "strictest regulation in history" under the "public attention", will it also achieve the "best effect in history" under the "public attention"?
Image source: The movie A Chinese Odyssey.
What are the reasons for the current housing price increase in Shanghai? Since 2020, there is no need for "experts" to explain the reasons for the soaring housing prices in Shanghai, nor for "scholars" to analyze with abstruse individual capital's sum formula. It is enough to understand ordinary people from their personal feelings.
1. "Citizens Moving Together" set off the entire Shanghai property market. As the common people in Shanghai and the real estate agents in Shanghai know, from the day when Shanghai began to implement the nine-year compulsory education "residents move together" in 2020, the "school district housing" in Shanghai began to rise, and the upward trend became more and more fierce, which led to the rising prices of the whole new and second-hand housing market in Shanghai.
Why did "residents move together" detonate the entire real estate market in Shanghai?
"Citizens moving together" is intended to improve "educational equity", but it ignores the most important factor of "school district housing".
With a set of "school districts", IQ and hard work are meaningless. With the "school district room", children with IQ of 80 can enter "prestigious schools", but without the "school district room", even if IQ 1000 can only enter "snacks" with great probability! ! ! With the "school district room", children can enter the "prestigious school" without "hard work". Without the "school district room", children can only eat "snacks"! ! ! Only parents in Shanghai know the bitterness, anger and helplessness. )
Is this called "educational equity"? Are children born without a "school district" deprived of the right to "quality education"?
Since the government has broken the "fairness" and torn a long crack in it, people will naturally flock to that "crack" and tear it bigger and bigger.
Whose parents don't want their children to receive a "quality education" Why is the right to receive "quality education" only given to a few children with "school districts"?
Therefore, regardless of whether they have money or not, parents in Shanghai want to "grab" a set of "school districts". The size of the house doesn't matter, as long as they are in the school district; It doesn't matter whether the house is expensive or not. Borrowing money is a big deal, and it is also a big deal to work hard.
All this is for the children!
With the "fire" of "citizens moving together", can Shanghai's "school district housing" not be on fire? It is this unprecedented "residents moving together" that triggered the unprecedented "popularity" of the Shanghai school district.
2. The real just-needed real estate regulation from accumulation to eruption is 20 17, which suppresses a large part of people's "just-needed" real estate, and this part of "just-needed" accumulation will inevitably erupt to a certain extent, just like the principle of volcanic eruption.
The news that doctors failed to win the lottery four times, which is widely circulated on the Internet, is a typical example of "just need" from accumulation to outbreak.
Shanghai is the largest immigrant city in China, and millions of people flock to Shanghai every year. The housing needs of these people are really "just needed".
In addition, Shanghai's huge population base has also generated a huge demand for housing improvement. This part of the "just need" has accumulated to a certain extent, and it is inevitable to find a breakthrough.
Under the guidance of the price increase of "school districts", the demand for second-hand houses and new houses in non-school districts has also been ignited, and the "truth" that the property market is chasing up and not chasing down has been verified again.
3. Central Bank Releases Water When the COVID-19 epidemic broke out, in order to hedge the impact of the epidemic on the economy, the central bank vigorously released water, which is understandable, because this is a conventional monetary control policy, and central banks around the world are doing the same routine.
The central bank itself said that the water release was to support the real economy, and the statistics of the official media also confirmed the effect of this water release.
Having said that, some funds will still flow to the real estate market, otherwise no bank will be punished for illegal lending, otherwise Shanghai's regulation and control will not propose "preventing funds such as credit loans, consumer loans and operating loans from flowing into the real estate market illegally".
How much money has flowed to the real estate market in this part, the official can't accurately count, but it is definitely there.
Therefore, the release of water by the central bank has indeed boosted Shanghai's current property market, but it is not the main driving force.
Will the strictest in history be the most effective in history? When Shanghai's "strictest" real estate control policy came out, the media almost applauded it, whether it was for Shanghai's policy or Shanghai's property market. It seems that Shanghai's housing prices will be as "healthy" and "stable" as CCTV news said tomorrow.
If so, the people are very lucky! China is very lucky!
However, the higher the house price, it has almost become "* * * learning". Will this round of regulation in Shanghai be the same?
We can't predict, we can only look at the real trend of Shanghai property market after the implementation of the policy.
However, if we can't fundamentally solve the "driving force" problem of rising house prices, can we really control house prices?
Will parents in Shanghai give up the idea of "school district housing" before the negative impact of "citizens acting together" is eliminated? Can you tolerate your "excellent" children eating "snacks"?
If the real "just need" is not satisfied, will it "explode"?