With the gradual slowdown of user growth, Tik Tok began to accelerate the pace of liquidation. Like today's headlines, the commercialization of Tik Tok will gradually rely on information flow advertising.
At present, information flow advertising is the main source of income for Tik Tok. This paper will estimate the contribution of this main business and analyze its sensitivity in the future.
1. Estimated advertising revenue of Tik Tok information flow: the annual revenue is about 9.5 billion.
General calculation idea: advertising revenue of short video information stream = DAU × average daily usage time of users × short video playing times per minute × short video advertising loading rate ×CPM×365.
DAU: the number of active users of the day. According to the data disclosed by iResearch Mobile APP Index, the number of independent devices in September was 272 million, corresponding to the monthly activity.
The average daily usage time of Tik Tok users is between 25 and 30 minutes. (the use time of Aauto Quicker is about 60~70 minutes. )
Number of short videos played per minute: Because Tik Tok is a music video of 15 seconds, some users record it in about 8 ~ 10 seconds; The other part has more than a certain number of fans.
Users can record short videos for 30 seconds. On this basis, take the approximate number and play the short video four times a minute.
The most important part of Tik Tok's revenue-information flow advertising revenue may be as high as 450 billion yuan in three to five years. Compare the income of Aauto at this stage. It's faster, it's already 2000.
The scale of 20 billion yuan is expected to reach 50 billion yuan in three to five years. (Of course, in the business model, Aauto Quicker mainly relies on live broadcast, and Tik Tok mainly relies on information flow.
Advertising)
This means that in the next few years, Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker will eat 654.38 billion+000 billion digital advertising cakes a year, and it is definitely not enough to rely solely on the growth of overall digital advertising.
Someone has to lose. Who could it be?
Maybe Baidu, maybe Weibo, maybe Tencent …