On August 16, the secretary of a county party committee in Shimen County, Hunan Province encouraged leaders to take the lead in buying a house at the real estate exhibition fair.
The video shows that the county party secretary made a generous speech, and a cadre behind him licked his lower lip. At the end of the speech, there was warm applause at the venue.
According to the statistics of Shimen Media, there are 19 real estate development enterprises and 2 1 real estate participating in this real estate exhibition fair, with more than 10000 sets of houses, covering an area of 980,000 square meters. The whole activity will last for 3 days.
Coincidentally, on the same day, an initiative in Sixian County, Suzhou City, Anhui Province once again attracted market attention. According to the "Proposal on * * * Creating Prosperity of Real Estate Industry" issued by Sixian County, firstly, encourage housing enterprises to take responsibility and cope with market changes; The second is to encourage public officials to buy houses and participate in house purchasing activities; The third is to remind the majority of property buyers to seize the opportunity and reasonably adjust the demand for housing.
The house price is not high, but the market is not good.
Looking through the statistical data of the two places, we can see that the fiscal revenue of the two places did not exceed 654.38+0 billion yuan in the first half of the year, so it is difficult to reach the level of the same period last year with great probability.
According to the data of Shimen Statistics Bureau, the fiscal revenue in the first half of 2022 was 934 million yuan, in 20021year it was 2.002 billion yuan, and in 2020 it was185.9 million yuan.
According to the statistics of Sixian Statistics Bureau, the fiscal revenue in the first half of 2022 was 963 million yuan, 209 1 million yuan in 2002 and 20 1 million yuan in 2020.
The real estate market is also not optimistic.
According to the statistics of Shimen Statistics Bureau, the sales area of commercial housing in the county decreased by 9.6% in the first half of the year, and the newly started area of real estate decreased by 47.6%. The real estate market is greatly influenced by land, finance, credit and other factors. Combined with the overall market situation, it is expected that the scale of the real estate market will show a downward trend throughout the year.
The real estate situation in Shimen was still growing last year. In 202 1 year, the completed area of Shimen residence was 350,000 square meters, up 174% year-on-year.
A similar phenomenon also exists in Sixian County. In the first half of this year, Sixian did not announce the specific values of real estate and fixed assets investment, but from the situation of the county last year, the performance was not bad.
202 1, 63 real estate development enterprises in Sixian county, with a year-on-year increase of14.5%; Real estate investment increased by 33.2% year on year; The building area was 6,373,700 square meters, up 21.3% year-on-year; The newly started area was 2,469,300 square meters, up 48.8% year-on-year; Sales area of commercial housing 170 1400 m2, up 1.3% year-on-year.
It is worth mentioning that the housing prices in both places are not expensive, and the total price of a 3-bedroom and 2-hall house with 100 square meter usually ranges from 400,000 yuan to 600,000 yuan. According to the data of Anjuke, in August, the average price of second-hand houses in Shimen County was 5,520 yuan/square meter, and a house with three bedrooms and two halls was11square meter, with a total price of about 438,000 yuan. In August, the average price of second-hand houses in Sixian County was 5,559 yuan/square meter, and the total price of a house with 3 bedrooms and 2 living rooms 107.4 square meter was about 660,000 yuan.
"Not worth advocating"
Is there a corresponding incentive mechanism to encourage public officials and cadres to buy houses? What is the impact on the market?
On the morning of August 17, Li, the chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, told the reporter of the National Business Daily through WeChat that in fact, in addition to Shimen, Sixian, Qingdao, Guangzhou and other areas, enterprises had been encouraged to join group purchases before, and even local governments personally publicized and encouraged to buy houses. "Although the purpose of some leaders may be to maintain the stability of the local real estate market, various publicity and encouragement policies are essentially interference with market rules and are not worth promoting."
In Li's view, simply encouraging people to buy a house will not stabilize the market. For some third-and fourth-tier cities with population outflow, they are generally faced with problems such as population outflow, aging, weak purchasing power and less employment provided by new industries. The staff of institutions, state-owned enterprises, hospitals, schools and other relatively stable units have basically bought houses, and there may even be multiple sets, so there is great pressure to buy houses again.
"With the fermentation of public opinion, the above behavior may be stopped by superiors, but it also reflects the difficulties of some third-and fourth-tier cities, including problems in the fields of finance, land, taxation and finance, which need to be paid attention to." Li said to him.
Ai Zhenqiang, the chief researcher of Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute, also expressed similar views when interviewed by WeChat of National Business Daily on the afternoon of August 17. "More and more places have joined the ranks of active buyers, reflecting the financial difficulties and downward pressure on the economy in some small and medium-sized cities."
Ai Zhenqiang mentioned that the sources of fiscal revenue in general cities are mainly concentrated in three parts. First, the general public budget revenue, in which tax is the main part; Second, the budget revenue of government funds, mainly land transfer fees; The third is the operating income of state-owned capital.
"In the above aspects, many third-and fourth-tier cities have declined to varying degrees." Ai Zhenqiang said that on the one hand, some small and medium-sized enterprises have a weak industrial base and a net outflow of population. In the past two years, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, and it is necessary to implement the tax reduction and exemption policy for small and medium-sized enterprises, which will put tax revenue under pressure in the short term; On the other hand, land transfer fees generally account for a relatively high proportion in the financial sources of small and medium-sized cities. Since the second half of last year, the real estate market has been depressed, which has affected the income from land transfer.
In Ai Zhenqiang's view, the real estate industry has a driving effect on dozens of industries. If the downturn continues, it will inevitably affect the economic growth of a place. Encouraging everyone to buy a house is to promote the real estate industry to return to a virtuous circle, ease local financial constraints and boost the economy. "It is suggested that local governments introduce some substantive measures, which are still attractive to people who just need it and just need it, and will also have some effects.